EPAC: KRISTY - Post-Tropical

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cycloneye
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EPAC: KRISTY - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 03, 2018 11:57 am

EP, 94, 2018080212, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1091W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS020, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020,
EP, 94, 2018080218, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1099W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS020, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020,
EP, 94, 2018080300, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1108W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS020, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020,
EP, 94, 2018080306, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1117W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS020, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020, SPAWNINVEST, ep732018 to ep942018,
EP, 94, 2018080312, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1125W, 20, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020,
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#2 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 03, 2018 12:40 pm

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942018 08/03/18 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 33 40 47 55 62 70 72 71
V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 27 33 40 47 55 62 70 72 71
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 22 24 27 30 34 37 41 45 49
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 9 8 7 8 10 14 14 16 16 8 0 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 -3 -4 -6 -3 -2 -6 -7 -6 1 1
SHEAR DIR 54 56 64 47 50 58 26 27 15 36 11 42 281
SST (C) 27.6 27.8 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.3 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.8 27.3 27.0
POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 147 147 146 143 136 132 131 134 141 136 133
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.1 -53.5 -52.9 -53.7 -52.7 -52.8 -51.9 -51.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5
700-500 MB RH 76 76 75 76 78 77 77 75 72 70 66 60 57
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 12 13 15 18 21 22 23
850 MB ENV VOR 16 19 18 18 9 13 5 0 -6 -7 5 35 64
200 MB DIV 46 34 40 35 24 41 17 36 36 33 -6 -1 -17
700-850 TADV -2 -3 -5 -7 -5 -4 -5 -7 -6 -3 -2 1 0
LAND (KM) 1079 1154 1199 1254 1324 1456 1618 1737 1773 1734 1652 1561 1510
LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.9 12.9 12.5 12.1 11.9 12.4 13.4 15.0 16.5
LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.5 114.5 115.7 116.8 118.9 120.7 121.9 122.2 122.3 122.4 123.0 123.8
STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 11 9 8 4 1 3 7 8 9
HEAT CONTENT 25 16 11 11 10 11 11 14 16 16 13 13 9

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 10. 18. 25. 30. 34. 36. 36.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 2. -1. -1. 0. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 9.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 17. 19.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -6. -8. -9.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 20. 27. 35. 42. 50. 52. 51.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.9 112.5

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 08/03/18 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.62 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.12 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.36 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 34.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.85 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.31 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.7% 7.0% 2.3% 1.1% 0.5% 4.6% 6.6% 9.6%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.2% 2.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 1.5% 2.2% 3.2%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 08/03/18 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#3 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 03, 2018 12:49 pm

Satellite images indicate that a low pressure area has formed about
700 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, and is already showing
some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form over the weekend or early next week. The low is
forecast to move slowly westward over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#4 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 03, 2018 1:32 pm

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#5 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Aug 03, 2018 1:34 pm

There's some pretty good apparent vorticity with this invest on visible imagery. Also worth noting how strong the westerly flow is on the south side of the monsoon trough.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#6 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 03, 2018 1:40 pm

EP, 94, 2018080318, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1135W, 25, 1008, LO
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#7 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 03, 2018 2:58 pm

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942018 08/03/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 40 45 53 60 67 73 74 73
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 40 45 53 60 67 73 74 73
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 60 61
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 8 9 11 16 13 18 11 8 5 4
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -3 -4 -6 -3 -4 -2 -7 -6 -3 1 3
SHEAR DIR 56 63 47 52 51 47 27 13 28 43 17 234 264
SST (C) 27.8 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.7 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.9 27.0 26.6
POT. INT. (KT) 142 147 147 146 145 141 133 132 134 137 143 133 130
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -52.8 -52.5 -51.7 -51.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5
700-500 MB RH 76 75 76 78 76 78 76 75 70 69 63 59 57
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 14 16 19 21 21 23
850 MB ENV VOR 19 19 19 10 9 14 4 -2 -9 1 14 57 78
200 MB DIV 34 40 35 23 20 42 17 46 33 23 -18 5 -2
700-850 TADV -3 -5 -7 -5 -4 -5 -8 -8 -6 -2 -2 1 -1
LAND (KM) 1154 1188 1244 1320 1388 1550 1700 1789 1786 1714 1614 1521 1489
LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.0 13.0 12.7 12.3 11.8 11.9 12.7 14.0 15.7 17.3
LONG(DEG W) 113.5 114.5 115.7 116.9 118.0 120.0 121.6 122.3 122.4 122.4 122.6 123.2 124.2
STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 11 10 9 6 3 3 5 8 9 10
HEAT CONTENT 16 11 11 10 10 11 13 16 16 15 12 13 5

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.5

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 23. 27. 30. 32. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -1. -1. 1. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10. 7.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 17. 18.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -6. -6.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 15. 20. 28. 35. 42. 48. 49. 48.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 113.5

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 08/03/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 4.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.62 3.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.09 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.34 1.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.27 1.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.85 -2.5
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 0.3

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.2% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 14.1% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.4% 9.7% 3.6% 1.6% 1.0% 4.3% 6.1% 9.2%
Bayesian: 0.1% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.5% 9.5% 4.8% 0.6% 0.3% 5.7% 6.8% 3.1%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 08/03/18 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#8 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 03, 2018 6:34 pm

Satellite imagery indicates that shower activity associated with a
low pressure area centered about 750 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California is becoming better organized.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or
early next week. The low is forecast to move slowly westward over
the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#9 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 03, 2018 7:29 pm

EP, 94, 2018080400, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1145W, 25, 1007, LO
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#10 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 03, 2018 8:07 pm

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942018 08/04/18 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 49 55 60 66 67 72 70
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 49 55 60 66 67 72 70
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 38 42 45 47 48 51 56 60
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 16 21 21 19 12 15 7 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -3 -4 -5 -5 -4 -4 -5 -3 -2 0 0
SHEAR DIR 46 45 52 71 65 33 35 29 48 73 108 65 69
SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.0 28.1 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.5 27.1 27.7
POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 145 146 140 136 133 133 133 134 139 135 141
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -52.8 -53.4 -52.7 -53.5 -52.7 -52.6 -51.9 -51.7 -50.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6
700-500 MB RH 75 75 77 75 77 78 77 74 71 67 62 62 71
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 12 13 15 17 18 17 20 20
850 MB ENV VOR 22 29 24 23 26 9 9 2 -4 8 28 107 135
200 MB DIV 54 41 31 47 59 57 63 44 23 -17 -2 3 43
700-850 TADV -3 -6 -7 -4 -4 -5 -4 -5 -3 -2 2 2 11
LAND (KM) 1178 1220 1286 1361 1444 1617 1731 1801 1758 1657 1473 1267 1064
LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.2 12.8 12.3 11.8 12.0 12.7 14.1 15.9 17.7
LONG(DEG W) 114.5 115.6 116.8 118.0 119.1 121.0 122.1 122.5 122.1 121.5 120.6 119.9 119.2
STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 11 11 8 5 0 4 6 9 11 9
HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 9 10 10 15 16 15 10 10 8 10

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.4

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 17. 23. 27. 30. 32. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -5. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 13. 12.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 10. 14. 13.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 24. 30. 35. 41. 42. 47. 45.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.2 114.5

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 08/04/18 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 4.2
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.58 3.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.08 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 1.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 1.3
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 46.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.84 -2.7
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.69 0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.3% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 14.6% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.1% 12.6% 4.7% 2.2% 1.3% 3.7% 9.0% 12.3%
Bayesian: 0.2% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Consensus: 0.8% 11.3% 5.6% 0.8% 0.4% 5.7% 7.9% 4.2%
DTOPS: 3.0% 6.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 5.0% 4.0% 22.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 08/04/18 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 04, 2018 4:23 am

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low
pressure centered about 800 miles south-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula have changed little in
organization over the past several hours. Environmental conditions
are expected to support additional development and a tropical
depression is likely to form by early next week as the system moves
slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#12 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 04, 2018 6:19 am

Image

WTPN21 PHNC 040230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.0N 113.4W TO 14.9N 120.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 040100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.2N 114.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.2N 114.5W, APPROXIMATELY 683 NM SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO VALLARTA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED, DEEPENING CONVECTION. A
032035Z AMSR2 GMI 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP AROUND A WELL-DEVELOPED LLCC. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KT)
AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28C)
ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON FORECAST TRACK IN THE EARLY TAUS, TRACKING THE
CIRCULATION WEST-NORTHWEST; HOWEVER, THEY DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND
DEGREE OF INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
050230Z.//
NNNN
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 04, 2018 6:58 am

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low
pressure centered about 825 miles south-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula continue to show signs of
organization. Environmental conditions are likely to support
additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to
form by early next week as the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 04, 2018 8:01 am

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942018 08/04/18 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 28 31 36 42 50 60 64 69 74 71
V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 28 31 36 42 50 60 64 69 74 71
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 29 31 33 37 40 42
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 16 17 16 18 20 15 14 10 6 1 3 5 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 -2 -5 2 1 -3 -3 -4 -2 -4 -3
SHEAR DIR 33 28 24 20 27 4 7 51 350 322 322 72 37
SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.1 27.7 27.6 27.9 27.5 27.7 26.8 26.6 26.3
POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 139 141 144 140 139 142 138 140 131 126 124
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -52.6 -52.9 -53.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.1 -51.3
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 5 6 5
700-500 MB RH 76 75 76 76 74 73 73 71 65 59 54 54 55
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 14 16 19 20 22 23 26 29 28
850 MB ENV VOR 14 11 14 18 14 16 8 1 9 35 47 57 63
200 MB DIV 36 42 59 81 84 112 91 56 -1 2 31 33 13
700-850 TADV -7 -7 -6 -7 -9 -13 -9 -4 -3 -1 -6 -4 -4
LAND (KM) 1368 1413 1441 1467 1483 1512 1565 1592 1630 1696 1783 1829 1781
LAT (DEG N) 11.9 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.3 12.9 13.5 14.1 14.7 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.8
LONG(DEG W) 115.8 116.5 117.2 117.8 118.5 119.7 121.2 122.4 123.6 125.1 126.6 127.7 127.6
STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 6 8 8 7 3 4
HEAT CONTENT 12 11 12 14 16 12 11 14 18 24 17 11 10

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.8

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 10. 17. 23. 28. 30. 32. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 4. 4.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 15. 17. 21. 24. 23.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 25. 35. 39. 44. 49. 46.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.9 115.8

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 08/04/18 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 2.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.12 0.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.11 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.49 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.32 0.6
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 36.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.85 -1.3
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.5% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 12.3% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 1.9% 3.8%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.0% 4.3% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 4.7% 1.3%
DTOPS: 0.0% 8.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 8.0% 13.0% 54.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 08/04/18 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#15 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 04, 2018 8:27 am

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#16 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 04, 2018 11:29 am

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 04, 2018 12:51 pm

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure centered about 825 miles south-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula continue to show signs of
organization. Environmental conditions are likely to support
additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to
form by early next week as the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#18 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 04, 2018 2:00 pm

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942018 08/04/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 34 40 48 52 61 67 69 65
V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 34 40 48 52 61 67 69 65
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 31 34 38 43 44
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 15 13 15 18 20 17 16 5 13 4 7 10 15
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -6 -5 0 -2 1 -9 -3 -2 1 2
SHEAR DIR 27 20 14 19 21 8 18 357 7 20 59 95 67
SST (C) 27.9 27.8 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.2 26.2 25.0
POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 144 141 141 140 141 138 137 139 135 124 112
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.2 -51.9 -51.2 -50.9
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 5 4
700-500 MB RH 75 75 76 74 73 72 71 69 64 61 56 56 56
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 13 14 14 17 18 17 21 23 25 24
850 MB ENV VOR 18 19 24 15 17 10 6 10 14 38 41 66 83
200 MB DIV 35 49 67 69 80 101 64 48 9 8 -5 -16 -27
700-850 TADV -6 -6 -7 -8 -12 -12 -10 -6 -3 -3 -4 2 4
LAND (KM) 1345 1372 1418 1454 1495 1599 1690 1786 1847 1833 1804 1722 1649
LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.5 13.6 14.3 15.4 16.8 18.1
LONG(DEG W) 116.5 117.3 118.2 119.0 119.8 121.6 123.2 124.4 125.3 125.8 126.4 126.8 127.2
STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 8 7 5 4 5 7 7 8
HEAT CONTENT 10 10 11 11 11 12 21 25 23 26 23 8 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 17. 23. 27. 30. 32. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 6. 9. 9. 15. 17. 19. 17.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -6.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 23. 27. 36. 42. 44. 40.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 116.5

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 08/04/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 4.6
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.19 1.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.08 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.49 2.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 1.8
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.84 -3.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.91 0.6

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.6% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% 13.8% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.2% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 1.8% 3.5%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.1% 4.5% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% 5.2% 1.2%
DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 7.0% 21.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 08/04/18 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#19 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 04, 2018 2:02 pm

EP, 94, 2018080418, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1165W, 25, 1007, LO
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#20 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 04, 2018 6:41 pm

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure centered about 900 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula have changed little in organization
during the past few hours. However, environmental conditions appear
favorable for development, and a tropical depression is expected to
form by early next week while this system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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