EPAC: KRISTY - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#41 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 06, 2018 8:20 pm

07/0000 UTC 14.8N 122.4W T1.0/1.0 94E -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#42 Postby talkon » Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:21 pm

Will finally be 13-E.

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
900 PM PDT Mon Aug 6 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ileana, located a little more than a hundred miles
south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico, and on Hurricane John,
located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the southern tip
of the Baja California Peninsula.

1. Satellite data indicate that thunderstorm activity associated with a
well-defined low pressure system located about 1000 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has continued
to become better organized during the past several hours, and a
special advisory package will be issued on Tropical Depression 13-E
by 1000 PM PDT.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...100 percent.

Forecaster Blake/Stewart
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Depression 13E

#43 Postby AJC3 » Tue Aug 07, 2018 1:24 am

WTPZ33 KNHC 070435
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Special Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 PM PDT Mon Aug 06 2018

...DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC, NO THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM PDT...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 124.3W
ABOUT 1105 MI...1780 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES



WTPZ43 KNHC 070436
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Special Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 PM PDT Mon Aug 06 2018

Microwave data from this evening indicate that a small low pressure
area has formed within an area of disturbed weather (Invest 94E)
that we have been monitoring for several days. The data indicate
that the well-defined low is embedded within a growing ball of
convection, along with tight banding near the center. The initial
wind speed is set to 30 kt in accordance with a special 0400 UTC
classification from TAFB. Gradual strengthening is forecast over
the next couple of days until the system passes over cooler waters.
Most of the guidance is indicating only slow intensification due to
northeasterly shear, although some caution should be advised since
the depression is fairly small.

An uncertain estimate of initial motion is 270/9 kt. The
subtropical ridge to the north is expected to steer the system
westward for the next day or two, then the forecast gets tricky.
The GFS-based guidance is showing Hurricane John weakening the
ridge enough to cause a northward or north-northeastward turn of the
new tropical cyclone by Thursday, while the ECMWF and its ensemble
show the system avoiding any binary interaction with John, and
continuing west-northwestward. With such widely divergent guidance,
the first forecast will stay close to the consensus, and perhaps
later guidance can nail down the specifics of any poleward turn.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0500Z 14.5N 124.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 14.4N 125.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 14.4N 127.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 14.7N 128.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 15.2N 129.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 17.0N 130.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 19.5N 131.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 22.0N 132.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Depression 13E

#44 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 07, 2018 1:48 am

07/0600 UTC 14.4N 124.2W T2.0/2.0 13E -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Depression 13E

#45 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 07, 2018 1:55 am

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* THIRTEEN EP132018 08/07/18 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 45 48 50 52 53 56 56 54 49 42
V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 45 48 50 52 53 56 56 54 49 42
V (KT) LGEM 35 39 42 44 45 47 49 50 51 50 48 45 40
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 16 17 15 9 10 9 2 5 3 3 9 15 15
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 -2 -1 -1 -3 0 1 -3 -2 0
SHEAR DIR 9 18 18 23 4 31 35 47 120 297 265 268 230
SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.2 26.8 26.3 26.9 26.7 25.5 24.7 24.1 23.5 22.6
POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 135 135 131 125 130 128 116 109 102 96 86
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 1
700-500 MB RH 65 63 63 63 62 60 60 58 55 54 47 43 41
MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -5 -6 5 17 22 19 26 29 35 51 87 145 162
200 MB DIV 66 31 8 1 0 -20 5 2 25 11 -4 -41 -31
700-850 TADV -14 -11 -10 -6 -9 -9 -6 -6 0 0 -1 -1 -26
LAND (KM) 1722 1805 1890 1950 2007 2075 2097 2046 1967 1897 1881 1883 1844
LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.4 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.9 15.5 16.4 17.5 18.8 20.1 21.3 22.4
LONG(DEG W) 124.5 125.5 126.5 127.3 128.1 129.5 130.4 130.6 130.6 130.8 131.5 132.2 133.1
STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 6 7 7 7 6
HEAT CONTENT 18 24 26 19 11 7 5 4 1 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.5

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 18. 17.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2.
PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 21. 21. 20. 14. 7.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.4 124.5

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132018 THIRTEEN 08/07/18 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 4.7
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.33 2.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.17 1.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.29 1.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.6
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.9
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 153.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.71 -3.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 0.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.76 0.6

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 19.5% 17.9% 12.1% 8.2% 14.0% 16.3% 8.8%
Logistic: 2.5% 13.3% 4.4% 2.7% 1.3% 1.9% 1.0% 1.5%
Bayesian: 0.2% 3.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 4.5% 12.2% 7.5% 4.9% 3.3% 5.3% 5.8% 3.4%
DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 7.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132018 THIRTEEN 08/07/18 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Depression 13E

#46 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Aug 07, 2018 2:37 am

Despite the track I think this one will become a hurricane (instead of Ileana). Its small (as the NHC "warned" about in their discussion :lol: ) which is one sign...another is the convective motion it has already.
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Depression 13E

#47 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:30 am

06Z Best track updated to 45 knots

13E KRISTY 180807 0600 14.4N 124.5W EPAC 45 1000
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Depression 13E

#48 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:32 am

Extratropical94 wrote:06Z Best track updated to 45 knots

13E KRISTY 180807 0600 14.4N 124.5W EPAC 45 1000


Potential sleeper storm.
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Depression 13E

#49 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:04 am

Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018
200 AM PDT Tue Aug 07 2018

Satellite images indicate that the cyclone has rapidly become better
organized, with a distinct curved band pattern now apparent. A
timely scatterometer pass indicated peak winds of 40-45 kt, so the
initial wind speed is set to 45 kt. Continued intensification is
forecast while the storm remains over warm waters with light or
moderate shear. While there is no guidance indicating anything but
slow strengthening, some caution should be advised since Kristy has
already overachieved. The wind speed forecast is raised from the
previous one, and is close to the HFIP corrected consensus.
Weakening should start by day 4 as the storm moves over cooler
waters.

Kristy appears to be moving at 265/10 kt. Model guidance is in
decent agreement on a subtropical ridge holding steady to the north
of the cyclone for a day or so, causing a westward motion. After
that time, the agreement becomes quite poor due to large
uncertainties over how fast the ridge erodes, partially due to the
circulation of Hurricane John. The GFS shows a fast erosion and a
turn to the north and northeast of Kristy, while the ECMWF keeps the
ridge in place, leading to the models being a "mere" 1200 miles
apart on the day-5 forecast of Kristy. Interestingly, the model
consensus didn't change much, so I've decided to keep the forecast
basically the same, with the caveat that this is obviously a
low-confidence prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 14.3N 125.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 14.3N 126.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 14.5N 128.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 14.9N 129.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 15.6N 130.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 17.5N 130.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 19.5N 131.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 22.0N 133.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: EPAC: KRISTY - Tropical Storm

#50 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 07, 2018 9:46 am

Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018
800 AM PDT Tue Aug 07 2018

The cloud pattern of Kristy is a little better organized with
several clusters of deep convection. The Dvorak T-numbers are
now 3.0/45 kt, and this data is now in better agreement with the
earlier ASCAT pass that was mentioned in the previous discussion.
Therefore, the initial intensity is kept at 45 kt. Kristy is
within a low shear environment, and most of the guidance indicates
gradual strengthening. The NHC forecast brings Kristy to hurricane
status in a couple of days while the cyclone remains over warm
waters. By the end of the forecast period, the circulation will
begin to be affected by cooler waters, which should result in
weakening.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 270
degrees at 8 kt. The track forecast during the first 24 hours or so
is fairly straightforward since the cyclone is embedded within
deep easterlies. Thereafter, the easterly flow will be interrupted
by the larger circulation of Hurricane John passing to the north of
Kristy, and the cyclone will most likely turn northward in response.
The spread in the guidance becomes large after 24 to 36 hours
with the ECMWF model keeping Kristy on a west-northwest path
while the GFS shows a northward motion as Kristy interacts with
John. The NHC forecast is in the middle of these two options and
very closely follows the multi-model consensus. It should be
noted that there is low confidence in the long range track forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 13.8N 126.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 13.9N 127.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 14.2N 128.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 14.8N 130.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 16.0N 130.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 18.0N 130.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 20.5N 131.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 22.5N 134.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: KRISTY - Tropical Storm

#51 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 07, 2018 1:43 pm

07/1800 UTC 14.0N 126.5W T3.5/3.5 KRISTY -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: KRISTY - Tropical Storm

#52 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 07, 2018 2:31 pm

Image

Good structure, but convection remains shallow.
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Re: EPAC: KRISTY - Tropical Storm

#53 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:48 pm

Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 07 2018

Geostationary satellite and microwave images indicate that Kristy
has well-defined curved bands, but the convection in these bands
has decreased during the past several hours. A recent ASCAT pass
showed maximum winds of about 40 kt. Based on that data and Dvorak
classifications, the initial intensity is again held at 45 kt.

Kristy has been moving just south of due west during the past 12
hours, and the initial motion estimate is 260/11 kt. The models
agree that a decrease in forward speed and a turn to the
west-northwest is expected to begin tonight or on Wednesday, but
that is about all they agree on for the future track of Kristy.
There remains significant spread in the models about how the storm
will interact with Hurricane John to its northeast. The GFS
continues to show Kristy being pulled northward and then
northeastward into the outer circulation of John. On the other hand,
the ECMWF has been consistent in showing little interaction between
the tropical cyclones, and keeps Kristy moving on a westward or
west-northwestward path. The NHC official track forecast lies
between these scenarios and is close to the recent run of the UKMET
model. This forecast has been adjusted to the north and east of the
previous one to get closer to the middle of the guidance envelope.
It should be noted that the track forecast is of low confidence
given the very different model solutions.

Kristy's struggles are likely due to the influences of dry air and
moderate shear. The SHIPS model shows the shear decreasing during
the next couple of days, which could allow the storm to gradually
strengthening during that time period. Beyond a couple of days,
however, cooler waters and a more stable airmass should end the
strengthening trend and result in weakening. The NHC intensity
forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies close to
the HCCA model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 13.7N 127.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 13.9N 128.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 14.5N 129.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 15.4N 129.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 16.4N 130.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 18.5N 130.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 21.0N 130.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 23.0N 132.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: KRISTY - Tropical Storm

#54 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 07, 2018 9:41 pm

ropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 07 2018

Kristy has become a little less organized this evening. An upper
tropospheric low situated to the northeast of Kristy is
producing moderate northwesterly shear which has degraded the
cyclone's cloud pattern. A 2035 UTC AMSR2 overpass revealed that
the surface center was partially exposed to the north of the
convective banding features. The subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB have decreased as well, so the initial
intensity for this advisory is lowered to 40 kt.

Statistical and global models all show the upper low to the
northeast of Kristy weakening and lifting out in 24 hours or so,
which should provide a more conducive upper wind environment for
intensification, at least through mid-period. Afterwards, a
weakening trend should commence due to an intruding drier/stable air
mass and cooler oceanic sea surface temperatures. The HWRF and HCCA
show Kristy becoming a hurricane in 48 hours, which still seems
quite reasonable and is reflected in the forecast. All of the other
guidance reaches just below 65 kt. The NHC intensity forecast is
based primarily on these two models, and indicates a peak
intensity of 65 kt in 48 hours.

The initial motion is estimated to be 285/7 kt, and Kristy is being
steered by a narrow mid-level ridge to the northeast. A complex
synoptic steering pattern comprised of an approaching deep-layer low
pressure system to the northwest of the tropical storm, and John to
the northeast, is forecast by most of the global and regional models
to weaken what's left of the ridge currently steering Kristy. The
increasing weakness in the subtropical ridge should cause Kristy
to turn northwestward and northward through day 4. At the end of
the period, a gradual turn toward the northwest around the
periphery of larger John's circulation. The ECMWF deterministic and
ensemble models continue to be outliers in the aforementioned
scenario due to less influence from the growing weakness to the
north and significantly less binary interaction with John. The
official forecast is similar to the previous one, with a slight
adjustment to the right and is basically in the middle of the HCCA
and TVCE consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 14.2N 127.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 14.6N 128.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 15.4N 129.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 16.4N 130.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 17.2N 130.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 19.5N 129.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 22.0N 130.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 24.3N 133.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: EPAC: KRISTY - Tropical Storm

#55 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 08, 2018 10:22 am

Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 08 2018

Kristy has continues to have the structure of a strongly sheared
tropical cyclone. The low-level center has been difficult to
identify overnight, but recent microwave data indicates that it is
displaced to the northwest of the primary convective mass. The
initial intensity has been held at 40 kt based on a blend of Dvorak
Final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB.

Although the low-level center has been somewhat difficult to track,
it appears that Kristy has begun to turn west-northwestward, and the
initial motion estimate is 290/7 kt. Little change has been made to
the official track forecast, but confidence remains very low. A
break in the subtropical ridge created by Hurricane John should
allow Kristy to continue turning, resulting in a northward motion by
Thursday. Beyond that time, the model spread remains high, fueled by
a combination of uncertainty as to how much John and Kristy will
directly interact, and how much Kristy will respond to an
upper-level trough to the northwest. The GFS is a notable outlier on
the east side of the guidance envelope, and is the only model
showing Kristy wrapping around the circulation of John. For now, the
NHC forecast continues to downplay this possibility, and is a little
to the west of the multi-model consensus.

The intensity guidance spread is also high, ranging from the HWRF
which makes Kristy a hurricane, to the SHIPS and LGEM which forecast
only gradual weakening. Since the shear is forecast to decrease over
the next 12 to 24 hours, and Kristy will be moving away from the
cold wake of Hector and over warmer waters, at least some
strengthening seems likely. By the second half of the forecast
period, the cyclone will be passing over much colder SSTs and
through a drier environment, which should cause the cyclone to
steadily weaken and become a remnant low. The NHC forecast is now
close to the model consensus IVCN, which is higher this cycle.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 14.4N 129.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 15.0N 130.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 15.9N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 16.8N 130.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 17.7N 130.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 19.8N 130.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 21.5N 131.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 22.0N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: EPAC: KRISTY - Tropical Storm

#56 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 08, 2018 12:56 pm

Looking a lot better:

Image
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Re: EPAC: KRISTY - Tropical Storm

#57 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:51 am

Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018
800 AM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018

Deep convection has continued to increase in association with
Kristy, mainly in a curved band over the northern semicircle of the
cyclone. The current intensity estimate is 55 kt in agreement with
a Dvorak estimate from TAFB and is close to the latest CIMSS SATCON
value. Some additional strengthening is possible before Kristy
reaches cooler waters late tomorrow, and the official forecast is
close to the IVCN intensity model consensus. A weakening trend is
likely to commence tomorrow night, and the system is expected to
become post-tropical later this weekend.

Center fixes have a lot of scatter and the initial motion is an
uncertain 345/4 kt. There continues to be a lot of spread in the
track guidance models. The GFS and its ensemble, along with the
HWRF and HMON regional models, are most aggressive in showing Kristy
being drawn into the larger circulation of John to the northeast.
The UKMET and ECMWF models do not take Kristy nearly as far to the
north and northeast as those other models. Since John is weakening,
it may not have that much of an influence on Kristy, especially
later in the forecast period. For now, the official forecast is
shifted a little to the right of the previous one but not as much as
shown by the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus tracks.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 16.1N 130.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 17.0N 130.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 18.2N 129.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 19.3N 129.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 20.4N 128.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 22.0N 128.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 13/1200Z 23.8N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/1200Z 25.5N 130.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: EPAC: KRISTY - Tropical Storm

#58 Postby HurricaneRyan » Thu Aug 09, 2018 12:31 pm

Kristy never seems to be a strong storm. But she seems to be doing better than her 2012 counterpart. Reminds me of her 2006 counterpart a bit
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EPAC: KRISTY - Post-Tropical

#59 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 11, 2018 9:34 am

Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018
800 AM PDT Sat Aug 11 2018

Cold waters and wind shear have taken a toll on Kristy. The cloud
pattern has degenerated considerably, and it now consists of a
tight swirl of low clouds with some patches of mid- to high-level
clouds. It is estimated that the winds have decreased to 30 kt with
some isolated spots of higher gusts. The cyclone will continue over
cold waters, and although regeneration is not anticipated, some
intermittent showers could still develop before dissipation occurs
in a couple of days.

Since the post-tropical cyclone is a shallow system, it is now being
steered toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 4 kt by the
low-level trade winds. This general motion with a gradual turn to
the west is anticipated during the next day or so.

This is the last advisory issued by NHC on this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 21.4N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 12/0000Z 21.8N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 12/1200Z 22.0N 132.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 13/0000Z 22.0N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/1200Z 22.5N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: KRISTY - Post-Tropical

#60 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Aug 11, 2018 7:06 pm

Maybe they pulled the plug a little too soon?

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Aug 11 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and a few thunderstorms have redeveloped in association
with Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy, located about 1400 miles west of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. However, the
low is expected to continue moving westward over cold waters, and
regeneration into a tropical cyclone is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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