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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: KRISTY - Tropical Storm

#21 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 04, 2018 8:00 pm

EP, 94, 2018080500, , BEST, 0, 127N, 1176W, 25, 1007, LO
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#22 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 04, 2018 8:05 pm

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942018 08/05/18 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 30 33 41 47 53 60 67 71 74 69
V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 30 33 41 47 53 60 67 71 74 69
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 34 38 43 48 52 54
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 14 12 17 17 11 18 12 12 8 8 6 11 21
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 -3 0 -1 -3 -6 -5 -6 -6 0 -2
SHEAR DIR 29 22 14 23 22 13 32 16 354 359 43 58 79
SST (C) 27.8 28.0 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 26.8 26.2 25.8
POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 140 140 141 141 139 136 135 135 131 124 120
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -52.7 -53.5 -52.5 -53.0 -52.4 -52.2 -51.4 -51.5 -50.6
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 4 4
700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 70 70 71 71 67 61 56 53 52 52
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 13 13 13 17 18 18 20 23 24 27 27
850 MB ENV VOR 22 23 17 13 8 4 0 2 23 33 41 55 78
200 MB DIV 52 57 63 60 61 91 69 30 31 42 47 -1 29
700-850 TADV -4 -5 -10 -11 -11 -11 -8 -5 -2 -2 -2 0 3
LAND (KM) 1390 1427 1480 1538 1591 1711 1823 1933 1975 1975 1914 1826 1755
LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.7 13.7 13.4 13.7 14.4 15.7 17.1 18.4
LONG(DEG W) 117.6 118.6 119.6 120.6 121.6 123.6 125.1 126.2 127.0 127.6 128.2 128.5 128.8
STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 9 6 4 4 6 7 7 6
HEAT CONTENT 10 11 11 11 12 23 24 19 18 15 10 8 1

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 17. 23. 27. 30. 32. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 7. 7. 9. 12. 18. 19. 23. 22.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. -5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 5. 8. 16. 22. 28. 35. 42. 46. 49. 44.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.7 117.6

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 08/05/18 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 4.9
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.30 1.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.09 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.48 2.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 2.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.82 -3.1
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.79 0.5

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.8% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 14.7% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.3% 2.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0% 3.1% 4.4%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Consensus: 0.1% 5.2% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 4.2% 5.9% 1.5%
DTOPS: 1.0% 28.0% 12.0% 5.0% 1.0% 2.0% 7.0% 12.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 08/05/18 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#23 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 05, 2018 1:25 am

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure centered about 900 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula have changed little in organization
during the past few hours. However, environmental conditions appear
favorable for development, and a tropical depression is expected to
form by early next week while this system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#24 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 05, 2018 2:10 am

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942018 08/05/18 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 33 39 43 51 59 64 69 69 66
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 33 39 43 51 59 64 69 69 66
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 28 29 32 36 41 46 50 53
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 13 15 15 10 14 17 9 11 7 9 9 14 16
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 3 2 -1 -2 -5 -6 -6 -4 -3 -3
SHEAR DIR 19 8 15 6 11 15 13 24 34 25 43 49 70
SST (C) 28.0 27.6 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.7 26.4 25.5
POT. INT. (KT) 144 140 140 142 143 141 138 136 133 133 129 127 118
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -51.8 -51.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 4 3
700-500 MB RH 73 73 71 70 69 69 68 64 61 57 57 55 63
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 12 11 13 16 16 17 18 20 22 22 23
850 MB ENV VOR 19 19 12 6 3 2 9 12 30 18 28 31 81
200 MB DIV 47 56 68 68 79 88 91 32 33 0 29 23 26
700-850 TADV -5 -8 -9 -8 -10 -13 -6 -4 -3 -4 -1 0 4
LAND (KM) 1429 1481 1531 1575 1633 1738 1902 2046 2120 2097 1998 1865 1697
LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.1 13.4 13.6 13.7 14.1 13.8 13.4 13.3 14.1 15.3 16.7 18.3
LONG(DEG W) 118.5 119.5 120.5 121.5 122.5 124.4 126.2 127.6 128.4 128.9 128.9 128.6 128.0
STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 6 4 6 7 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 12 15 24 22 15 13 9 6 9 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 17. 23. 27. 30. 31. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 7. 9. 11. 14. 14. 15.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 8. 14. 18. 26. 34. 39. 44. 44. 41.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.9 118.5

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 08/05/18 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 5.3
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.34 2.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.10 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.51 3.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.9
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.82 -3.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.75 0.6

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.6% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 16.8% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.4% 5.0% 1.2% 0.7% 0.1% 1.6% 3.6% 5.6%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Consensus: 0.1% 7.3% 5.4% 0.2% 0.0% 4.9% 6.8% 1.9%
DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 6.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 08/05/18 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#25 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 05, 2018 6:40 am

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low
pressure located about 900 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula have changed little in organization
overnight. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form within
the next day or two while this system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#26 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 05, 2018 9:32 am

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942018 08/05/18 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 29 32 37 41 46 54 58 65 63 55
V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 29 32 37 41 46 54 58 65 63 55
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 40 40 39
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 18 19 13 16 18 10 12 7 8 6 7 15 15
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 1 1 -1 0 -4 -4 -4 -1 1 -3 -4
SHEAR DIR 15 15 354 357 13 24 22 44 344 14 24 30 24
SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.4 27.0 27.1 27.0 26.5 25.1 24.8
POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 138 140 142 141 136 132 133 132 127 113 111
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.4 -52.8 -53.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.2 -52.1 -51.5 -51.7 -51.3 -51.6
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 4 4 3
700-500 MB RH 75 73 71 70 70 68 62 56 56 53 57 61 64
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 13 15 16 17 17 20 20 23 23 20
850 MB ENV VOR 21 17 13 9 6 4 6 26 32 35 48 52 78
200 MB DIV 50 58 79 90 85 78 13 0 15 29 30 19 -13
700-850 TADV -8 -10 -9 -12 -11 -11 -3 -1 -4 -4 3 10 1
LAND (KM) 1487 1535 1562 1596 1637 1685 1793 1866 1922 1885 1804 1665 1458
LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.8 13.1 13.3 13.5 14.1 14.2 14.4 14.8 15.7 16.7 17.8 19.4
LONG(DEG W) 119.1 119.9 120.6 121.4 122.3 123.7 125.2 126.3 127.3 127.8 127.8 127.1 126.0
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 8 10
HEAT CONTENT 12 11 10 11 13 17 22 24 16 11 8 1 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 10. 17. 23. 27. 30. 31. 30.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 9. 10. 15. 14. 10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -6.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 4. 7. 12. 16. 21. 29. 33. 40. 38. 30.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.7 119.1

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 08/05/18 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 4.7
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.15 0.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.09 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.56 3.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.4
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 60.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.82 -3.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.2% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 14.4% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 2.1% 2.7%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.0% 4.8% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 5.5% 0.9%
DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 5.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 08/05/18 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#27 Postby NotSparta » Sun Aug 05, 2018 12:10 pm

Very deep convection

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#28 Postby NotSparta » Sun Aug 05, 2018 12:35 pm

An elongated area of low pressure location about 900 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for development, and a
tropical depression is expected to form within the next day or
two while this system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#29 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 05, 2018 1:41 pm

First classification from SAB.

05/1800 UTC 13.5N 117.2W T1.0/1.0 94E -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#30 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 05, 2018 2:23 pm

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942018 08/05/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 39 44 51 55 58 62 61 55
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 39 44 51 55 58 62 61 55
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 27 29 31 34 36 37 36 35
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 18 14 17 20 21 11 10 4 10 4 9 13 16
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 1 -2 -4 0 -3 -2 0 0 -2 0 -2
SHEAR DIR 11 354 355 9 20 11 19 2 347 355 40 55 61
SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.4 25.8 25.3 24.6
POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 136 140 141 140 137 133 130 125 119 116 108
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.3 -52.8 -53.3 -53.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.0 -51.8 -51.3 -51.2 -50.7 -50.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3
700-500 MB RH 73 72 72 71 69 66 60 56 56 59 60 63 64
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 13 16 16 16 17 18 19 21 21 20
850 MB ENV VOR 17 10 6 -2 -1 -2 13 30 31 50 52 102 140
200 MB DIV 67 89 98 82 82 47 4 13 3 26 8 14 -15
700-850 TADV -9 -9 -11 -10 -14 -8 -4 -3 -6 1 6 8 -3
LAND (KM) 1550 1594 1632 1650 1679 1725 1777 1803 1815 1761 1682 1519 1336
LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.6 15.5 16.5 17.3 18.6 20.2
LONG(DEG W) 120.0 120.7 121.4 122.1 122.8 123.9 124.9 125.7 126.6 127.0 126.8 126.0 125.2
STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 6 5 6 9 8
HEAT CONTENT 12 10 11 12 15 18 20 26 20 9 3 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.9

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 17. 23. 27. 29. 30. 29.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 4. 4. 4. 6. 8. 9. 13. 12. 10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 19. 26. 30. 33. 37. 36. 30.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.7 120.0

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 08/05/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 4.5
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.09 0.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.10 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.62 3.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.3
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.82 -2.9
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 0.3

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.4% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 13.3% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.5% 2.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 1.1% 8.4% 7.9%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Consensus: 0.2% 5.3% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 4.1% 7.3% 2.6%
DTOPS: 3.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 08/05/18 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#31 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 05, 2018 6:36 pm

An area of low pressure located about 950 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula remains elongated but
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions still appear conducive for this system to
consolidate over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression
is likely to form while it moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#32 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 05, 2018 6:49 pm

Very messy atm with multiple centers of sorts (one near 121W and another around 117-118W). Shear needs to go down if this wants to form.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#33 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:53 pm

06/0000 UTC 13.9N 117.4W T1.0/1.0 94E -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#34 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 05, 2018 8:14 pm

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942018 08/06/18 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 47 55 62 67 72 69 67 61
V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 47 55 62 67 72 69 67 61
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 30 33 37 41 45 46 45 44
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 12 15 19 15 8 9 3 6 3 2 7 9 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -1 -1 3 0 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 -3 0
SHEAR DIR 1 357 4 10 13 24 33 356 25 1 61 38 62
SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.1 24.6 24.6 23.9
POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 140 142 141 140 133 131 129 122 108 107 100
200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -52.2 -52.8 -51.9 -51.5 -51.0 -51.4 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.9
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 5 4 4 3 2
700-500 MB RH 71 70 71 70 69 65 59 56 56 59 59 60 65
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 15 15 16 17 19 20 21 23 21 21 20
850 MB ENV VOR 4 0 -4 -3 -5 4 33 37 49 52 46 94 140
200 MB DIV 84 85 70 78 69 29 14 -21 -4 0 16 -13 13
700-850 TADV -7 -9 -9 -12 -12 -7 -1 -5 -1 0 0 -1 0
LAND (KM) 1563 1592 1625 1640 1657 1746 1810 1849 1809 1735 1626 1491 1384
LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.5 15.0 16.1 17.1 18.3 19.6 20.8
LONG(DEG W) 120.5 121.2 122.0 122.6 123.2 124.6 125.7 126.6 127.2 127.3 127.1 126.6 126.3
STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 6 5 7 6 6
HEAT CONTENT 10 11 12 14 16 20 25 23 12 5 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 17. 23. 26. 29. 29. 28.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 15. 12. 13. 10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 22. 30. 37. 42. 47. 44. 42. 36.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 120.5

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 08/06/18 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 5.4
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.33 2.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.10 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.58 3.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.7
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 73.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.81 -3.5
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.1% 16.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.9% 17.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.2% 9.4% 2.5% 1.4% 0.3% 5.0% 15.7% 9.6%
Bayesian: 0.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.4% 9.9% 6.4% 0.5% 0.1% 6.7% 10.9% 3.2%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 08/06/18 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#35 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 06, 2018 12:57 pm

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1000 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is still likely to form during the next couple of days
while the system moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#36 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 06, 2018 1:29 pm

Not sure about the shear forecast for the next 120 hours. Euro on its 200mb charts shows marginal deep layer shear. Potential for this to be a sleeper like Hector though. Euro has this going north of Hawaii, but it may be underdoing the ridging again. Would be something else to see this do a double basin cross.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#37 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 06, 2018 2:00 pm

06/1800 UTC 14.8N 121.7W T1.0/1.0 94E -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#38 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 06, 2018 2:01 pm

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942018 08/06/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 31 35 40 48 52 52 51 50 45
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 31 35 40 48 52 52 51 50 45
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 28 31 35 39 42 43 44 41
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 15 8 13 13 11 4 7 9 14 19 15 21 18
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 1 0 -2 -4 -2 2 -5 -4 0 0 3
SHEAR DIR 3 354 6 22 35 51 66 83 57 49 40 34 29
SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.3 27.1 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.6 26.6 25.9 25.2 22.9
POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 141 137 134 135 132 136 141 132 124 117 94
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 4 4 3
700-500 MB RH 67 65 62 62 61 61 59 62 60 68 73 72 67
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 15 15 17 15 15 13 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 12 11 4 0 18 37 27 21 1 18 76 51 39
200 MB DIV 72 62 57 23 -9 -25 -36 -20 -29 33 26 4 3
700-850 TADV -14 -16 -14 -10 -6 -5 -9 -6 -6 -7 -1 -1 -19
LAND (KM) 1547 1598 1685 1781 1877 2011 2059 1947 1710 1392 1055 744 438
LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.1 15.1 14.9 14.6 14.0 13.8 14.2 15.2 16.9 19.0 21.6 25.0
LONG(DEG W) 122.6 123.6 124.7 125.7 126.6 127.7 128.1 127.1 125.1 122.7 120.4 118.7 118.1
STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 8 5 2 8 13 15 15 15 19
HEAT CONTENT 11 14 19 26 26 16 13 22 21 4 3 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.6

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 23. 27. 30. 31. 29.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 1. 0. -2. 0. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 15. 23. 27. 27. 26. 25. 20.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.8 122.6

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 08/06/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 3.3
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.41 1.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.17 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.39 1.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 1.5
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.76 -2.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.88 0.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.36 0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.1% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.8% 4.0% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 1.0% 1.0% 3.3%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.3% 7.2% 3.5% 0.2% 0.1% 4.1% 0.3% 1.1%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 08/06/18 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#39 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 06, 2018 6:46 pm

Shower activity associated with an elongated area of low pressure
located about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula continues to show some signs of organization.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days
while the system moves slowly toward the west-northwest at 5 to 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#40 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 06, 2018 8:20 pm

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942018 08/07/18 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 30 34 39 43 46 47 47 48 45
V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 30 34 39 43 46 47 47 48 45
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 27 29 32 34 36 38 40 40
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 14 17 16 11 11 9 14 20 19 14 19 22
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -2 -3 -5 -3 -3 -1 -8 -5 0 0 -1
SHEAR DIR 357 3 18 23 34 33 52 35 50 57 39 24 39
SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.6 26.5 26.6 27.1 27.4 27.1 26.8 25.5
POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 137 134 133 128 123 127 135 139 135 131 119
200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.8 -52.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 6 5 6 5 6 6 5 4 4
700-500 MB RH 67 64 63 62 62 61 60 60 54 55 63 72 68
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 15 14 14 15 15 15 14 12 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 7 3 1 12 25 29 23 17 -1 -26 -4 15 18
200 MB DIV 67 58 15 -13 -6 -18 -13 -15 -5 14 43 13 8
700-850 TADV -16 -15 -9 -8 -4 -10 -7 -9 -7 -6 -3 0 -4
LAND (KM) 1614 1692 1782 1880 1954 2096 2148 2112 1984 1765 1499 1276 1121
LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.0 15.0 14.8 14.7 14.2 14.1 14.1 14.4 14.9 16.1 17.6 19.7
LONG(DEG W) 123.6 124.7 125.8 126.8 127.6 129.0 129.6 129.1 127.7 125.5 123.3 121.9 121.7
STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 9 8 6 0 5 9 12 11 9 12
HEAT CONTENT 14 19 26 23 16 8 6 8 15 25 9 3 1

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 30. 30.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -4. -5. -6. -7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. 0. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 5. 9. 14. 18. 21. 22. 22. 23. 20.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.9 123.6

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942018 INVEST 08/07/18 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 2.3
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.32 1.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.17 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.30 0.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 0.9
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.76 -1.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.86 0.2
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.9% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.5% 2.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 2.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.2% 5.3% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 2.8% 0.1% 0.7%
DTOPS: 2.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 32.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942018 INVEST 08/07/18 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX
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