ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

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ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Aug 04, 2018 1:01 am

The elusive mid latitude invest has been tagged.

97L INVEST 180804 0000 38.5N 42.1W ATL 35 1010


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Re: NATL: Invest 97L

#2 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Aug 04, 2018 1:04 am

Not much guidance for the invest yet.

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Re: NATL: Invest 97L

#3 Postby AJC3 » Sat Aug 04, 2018 1:15 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical low pressure system located about 700 miles west
of the Azores is producing gale-force wind gusts northeast of its
center. Although associated shower activity is currently limited,
the low could gradually acquire subtropical or tropical
characteristics over the next few days while it moves southwestward
over warmer water. Additional information on this low pressure area
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


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Re: NATL: Invest 97L

#4 Postby AJC3 » Sat Aug 04, 2018 1:15 am

BT data so far...

AL, 97, 2018080218, 41.2N, 33.7W, 15, 1011, DB,
AL, 97, 2018080300, 40.8N, 35.5W, 30, 1011, LO,
AL, 97, 2018080306, 40.4N, 37.2W, 30, 1011, LO,
AL, 97, 2018080312, 39.9N, 38.9W, 30, 1011, LO,
AL, 97, 2018080318, 39.3N, 40.5W, 35, 1010, LO,
AL, 97, 2018080400, 38.5N, 42.1W, 35, 1010, LO,
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Re: NATL: INVEST 97L

#5 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Aug 04, 2018 5:38 am

Very interesting place for something to develop and move to the SW. But I guess we will take something worth tracking wherever we can get it in this slow season.

Are any of the models picking up on guidance yet?
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Re: NATL: INVEST 97L

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 04, 2018 7:04 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical low pressure system located about 800 miles
west-southwest of the Azores is producing gale-force wind gusts
northeast of its center. Although associated shower activity is
currently limited, the low could gradually acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics over the next few days while it moves
southwestward at about 10 mph over warmer water. Additional
information on this low pressure area can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Berg
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Re: NATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#7 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Aug 04, 2018 7:46 am

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Re: NATL: INVEST 97L

#8 Postby plasticup » Sat Aug 04, 2018 9:14 am

eastcoastFL wrote:Very interesting place for something to develop and move to the SW. But I guess we will take something worth tracking wherever we can get it in this slow season.

Are any of the models picking up on guidance yet?

Yep, they show it recurving before 55W but if it misses that trough then Bermuda could see it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#9 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 04, 2018 9:22 am

Not much here in the short term, over warm waters but lots of northerly dry shear over it from the ULL close to it. Its heading is a good evidence of how strong ridging has been over Canadian Maritimes.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#10 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Aug 04, 2018 12:54 pm

UP TO 20/30
020
ABNT20 KNHC 041747
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a non-tropical low pressure system
centered about 850 miles west-southwest of the Azores remains
limited. However, the low could gradually acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics while it moves southwestward over the next
day or two, and then lifts back to the northeast and remains over
warm water through Tuesday. Additional information on this low
pressure area can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 04, 2018 7:11 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a non-tropical low pressure system
centered about 950 miles west-southwest of the Azores remains
limited. However, the low could gradually acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics while it moves southwestward over the next
day or two, and then lifts back to the northeast and remains over
warm water through Tuesday. Additional information on this low
pressure area can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 05, 2018 6:42 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 5 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical low pressure system centered about 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Azores continues to produce limited shower
activity. Environmental conditions are expected to become
marginally conducive for the low to acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics while it moves little over the next
day or so, and then moves northeastward through Tuesday. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Pasch
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ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#13 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:36 am

Can an invest be more uninteresting than 97L? :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#14 Postby NotSparta » Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:40 am

Blown Away wrote:Can an invest be more uninteresting than 97L? :D


It's like the ATL became jealous of the EP activity & tried to produce something, but underperformed :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#15 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Aug 05, 2018 10:23 am

Blown Away wrote:Can an invest be more uninteresting than 97L? :D

For me, I find Invest 97L more interesting than the two EPAC invests. There is something really fascinating about watching a mid-latitude swirl slowly acquire organized deep convection. It's my favorite type of genesis. Many times it doesn't look like development will occur due to either shear, cool SSTs or dry air, but systems like this often find a way.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#16 Postby plasticup » Sun Aug 05, 2018 12:31 pm

Blown Away wrote:Can an invest be more uninteresting than 97L? :D

It's a funny spot for a storm to spin up! But yeah, I'm looking forward to the Cape Verde-type part of the season
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#17 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Aug 05, 2018 12:38 pm

020
ABNT20 KNHC 051726
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 5 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical low pressure system centered about 1100 miles
west-southwest of the Azores continues to produce limited shower
activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be only
marginally conducive for the low to acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics while it moves little over the next
day or so, and then moves north-northeastward through Tuesday.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#18 Postby lrak » Sun Aug 05, 2018 4:17 pm

Blown Away wrote:Can an invest be more uninteresting than 97L? :D


Exactly very strange start for the season. Seems like the Atlantic can't get up and running yet?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#19 Postby Weather150 » Sun Aug 05, 2018 5:25 pm

lrak wrote:
Blown Away wrote:Can an invest be more uninteresting than 97L? :D


Exactly very strange start for the season. Seems like the Atlantic can't get up and running yet?

Won't really get going until late August.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#20 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Aug 05, 2018 10:40 pm

Convection has increased east of the center tonight.
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