ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

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ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Aug 04, 2018 1:01 am

The elusive mid latitude invest has been tagged.

97L INVEST 180804 0000 38.5N 42.1W ATL 35 1010


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Re: NATL: Invest 97L

#2 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Aug 04, 2018 1:04 am

Not much guidance for the invest yet.

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Re: NATL: Invest 97L

#3 Postby AJC3 » Sat Aug 04, 2018 1:15 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical low pressure system located about 700 miles west
of the Azores is producing gale-force wind gusts northeast of its
center. Although associated shower activity is currently limited,
the low could gradually acquire subtropical or tropical
characteristics over the next few days while it moves southwestward
over warmer water. Additional information on this low pressure area
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


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Re: NATL: Invest 97L

#4 Postby AJC3 » Sat Aug 04, 2018 1:15 am

BT data so far...

AL, 97, 2018080218, 41.2N, 33.7W, 15, 1011, DB,
AL, 97, 2018080300, 40.8N, 35.5W, 30, 1011, LO,
AL, 97, 2018080306, 40.4N, 37.2W, 30, 1011, LO,
AL, 97, 2018080312, 39.9N, 38.9W, 30, 1011, LO,
AL, 97, 2018080318, 39.3N, 40.5W, 35, 1010, LO,
AL, 97, 2018080400, 38.5N, 42.1W, 35, 1010, LO,
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Re: NATL: INVEST 97L

#5 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Aug 04, 2018 5:38 am

Very interesting place for something to develop and move to the SW. But I guess we will take something worth tracking wherever we can get it in this slow season.

Are any of the models picking up on guidance yet?
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Re: NATL: INVEST 97L

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 04, 2018 7:04 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical low pressure system located about 800 miles
west-southwest of the Azores is producing gale-force wind gusts
northeast of its center. Although associated shower activity is
currently limited, the low could gradually acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics over the next few days while it moves
southwestward at about 10 mph over warmer water. Additional
information on this low pressure area can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Berg
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ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 04, 2018 7:06 am

Only model runs here.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#8 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Aug 04, 2018 7:46 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 04, 2018 8:12 am

* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL972018 08/04/18 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 35 37 41 42 44 46 48 47 44 39
V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 35 37 41 42 44 46 48 47 44 39
V (KT) LGEM 30 28 28 27 27 28 29 32 36 43 49 50 48
Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP

SHEAR (KT) 35 33 30 25 21 19 20 16 11 10 13 22 22
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -2 -2 -4 -3 -2 0 -2 -3
SHEAR DIR 40 38 31 24 11 336 312 291 326 309 334 349 360
SST (C) 26.2 26.4 26.8 27.4 26.8 26.6 27.0 27.0 25.8 25.7 24.2 20.3 19.7
POT. INT. (KT) 118 120 125 131 123 119 125 126 114 112 100 82 81
ADJ. POT. INT. 102 106 111 116 107 101 110 111 99 94 85 74 74
200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.8 -55.2 -55.5 -55.9 -56.2 -56.5 -56.7 -56.7 -57.7 -58.2 -58.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.0 -0.5 -1.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 6 3 1 0
700-500 MB RH 34 35 39 44 45 48 52 56 63 65 65 68 69
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 14 13 12 11 9 8 6 5
850 MB ENV VOR 67 73 83 88 89 91 68 27 8 16 -9 -29 -63
200 MB DIV -16 6 0 -10 -8 -13 5 15 17 -10 -5 0 11
700-850 TADV -9 -10 -11 -7 -6 -2 0 8 3 5 13 24 35
LAND (KM) 1228 1269 1389 1555 1703 1875 1796 1548 1254 1030 966 1081 1393
LAT (DEG N) 37.2 36.2 34.7 33.0 31.6 30.2 31.3 34.1 37.3 40.2 42.4 44.2 45.6
LONG(DEG W) 45.5 47.1 48.5 49.4 49.7 48.6 46.8 45.3 44.7 44.0 42.5 39.7 34.8
STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 19 16 12 7 13 16 16 13 13 16 20
HEAT CONTENT 2 3 3 4 4 2 3 4 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ -5
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=619)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 12. 14. 15. 14. 13.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 0. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2.
PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -15. -17.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 7. 11. 12. 14. 16. 18. 18. 14. 9.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 37.2 45.5

** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972018 INVEST 08/04/18 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 3.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.04 0.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.02 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.96 2.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 1.1
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 237.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.68 1.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.44 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 10.9% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.4%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.8% 3.9% 3.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972018 INVEST 08/04/18 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX


** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972018 INVEST 08/04/2018 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 32 35 37 41 42 44 46 48 47 44 39
18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 36 40 41 43 45 47 46 43 38
12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 35 36 38 40 42 41 38 33
6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 27 29 31 33 32 29 24
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 04, 2018 8:21 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#11 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 04, 2018 9:14 am

HWRF shows strong dry northerly shear from the ULL to the SE of it affect it over the next 48-72 hrs, then letting up as it starts moving back up to the north for a chance of better development by then.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 97L

#12 Postby plasticup » Sat Aug 04, 2018 9:14 am

eastcoastFL wrote:Very interesting place for something to develop and move to the SW. But I guess we will take something worth tracking wherever we can get it in this slow season.

Are any of the models picking up on guidance yet?

Yep, they show it recurving before 55W but if it misses that trough then Bermuda could see it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#13 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 04, 2018 9:22 am

Not much here in the short term, over warm waters but lots of northerly dry shear over it from the ULL close to it. Its heading is a good evidence of how strong ridging has been over Canadian Maritimes.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#14 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Aug 04, 2018 12:54 pm

UP TO 20/30
020
ABNT20 KNHC 041747
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a non-tropical low pressure system
centered about 850 miles west-southwest of the Azores remains
limited. However, the low could gradually acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics while it moves southwestward over the next
day or two, and then lifts back to the northeast and remains over
warm water through Tuesday. Additional information on this low
pressure area can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#15 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Aug 04, 2018 4:10 pm

* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL972018 08/04/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 40 43 45 45 47 48 46 44 40
V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 40 43 45 45 47 48 46 44 40
V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 32 34 38 43 49 53 52 49
Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 35 31 26 22 19 21 15 13 7 11 9 8 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 0 -3 -4 -2 -4 -1 -1 -3 -5
SHEAR DIR 33 30 19 10 359 327 317 323 338 350 9 21 29
SST (C) 26.2 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.0 27.2 27.5 26.2 26.7 25.3 25.6 22.7 21.3
POT. INT. (KT) 118 125 127 129 122 125 131 117 121 107 110 92 86
ADJ. POT. INT. 102 109 110 110 102 106 114 100 101 89 91 80 77
200 MB T (C) -54.6 -55.0 -55.4 -55.6 -55.8 -55.9 -56.1 -56.0 -56.1 -56.7 -57.2 -57.4 -57.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.7 -0.4 -0.6 -1.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 3 2 2
700-500 MB RH 36 40 45 47 47 52 56 62 63 65 60 59 57
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 13 12 10 10 9 7 5 3
850 MB ENV VOR 78 85 90 93 93 79 50 14 19 -5 -28 -64 -88
200 MB DIV -1 0 -12 -12 1 -3 11 9 -1 -5 -3 -24 -4
700-850 TADV -11 -9 -5 -5 -2 1 3 5 5 9 9 15 12
LAND (KM) 1345 1433 1550 1662 1751 1761 1572 1307 1067 927 912 1045 1312
LAT (DEG N) 35.7 34.5 33.2 32.1 31.3 31.4 33.4 36.1 38.6 40.5 41.9 43.0 44.0
LONG(DEG W) 46.4 47.6 48.5 48.9 48.8 47.8 46.8 46.3 46.1 45.4 43.8 40.9 36.7
STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 13 10 6 7 13 13 11 9 10 14 17
HEAT CONTENT 4 4 5 5 3 3 4 3 3 0 0 0 0
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#16 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 04, 2018 7:11 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a non-tropical low pressure system
centered about 950 miles west-southwest of the Azores remains
limited. However, the low could gradually acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics while it moves southwestward over the next
day or two, and then lifts back to the northeast and remains over
warm water through Tuesday. Additional information on this low
pressure area can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 05, 2018 6:42 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 5 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical low pressure system centered about 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Azores continues to produce limited shower
activity. Environmental conditions are expected to become
marginally conducive for the low to acquire subtropical or
tropical characteristics while it moves little over the next
day or so, and then moves northeastward through Tuesday. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Pasch
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ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#18 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:36 am

Can an invest be more uninteresting than 97L? :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#19 Postby NotSparta » Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:40 am

Blown Away wrote:Can an invest be more uninteresting than 97L? :D


It's like the ATL became jealous of the EP activity & tried to produce something, but underperformed :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#20 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Aug 05, 2018 10:23 am

Blown Away wrote:Can an invest be more uninteresting than 97L? :D

For me, I find Invest 97L more interesting than the two EPAC invests. There is something really fascinating about watching a mid-latitude swirl slowly acquire organized deep convection. It's my favorite type of genesis. Many times it doesn't look like development will occur due to either shear, cool SSTs or dry air, but systems like this often find a way.
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