ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Tropical Storm

#41 Postby AnnularCane » Wed Aug 08, 2018 11:17 am

Anyone still thinking she shouldn't have been named? 8-)
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Tropical Storm

#42 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Aug 08, 2018 11:19 am

Debby has transitioned into a more traditional tropical cyclone this morning with the center now located under a ball of moderate convection.
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Tropical Storm

#43 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Wed Aug 08, 2018 11:25 am

CyclonicFury wrote:Debby has transitioned into a more traditional tropical cyclone this morning with the center now located under a ball of moderate convection.



Agree, has definitely earned a name now although impacts to any landmass will be minimal to none.
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Tropical Storm

#44 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:44 pm

190
WTNT44 KNHC 090241
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 08 2018

A very recent ASCAT pass indicates that Debby is stronger than
previously estimated. The pass showed maximum winds of about 40 kt,
and since the entire circulation was not captured, the initial
intensity is set at 45 kt. This estimate is also in agreement with
a Dvorak CI-number from TAFB. Although the relatively compact
tropical storm is maintaining an area of moderate convection, the
thunderstorm activity is displaced to the south-southwest of the
center due to about 15 kt of wind shear. Debby is currently over
fairly cool 25 deg C SSTs, but it will be headed for much cooler
water during the next 24 to 36 hours. These unfavorable oceanic
conditions combined with an increasingly stable airmass should cause
weakening and extratropical transition. The NHC intensity forecast
shows Debby becoming extratropical by 24 hours and dissipating
shortly thereafter, following the GFS and ECMWF models.

The tropical storm is moving northeastward, or 040 degrees, at 13
kt. A faster northeastward motion is expected until the cyclone
opens into a trough as Debby becomes more embedded in the
mid-latitude flow. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 42.8N 46.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 44.4N 43.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 46.8N 37.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Tropical Storm

#45 Postby Hammy » Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:52 pm

Wonder if this could've been 50kt earlier in the day around 18z.
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Tropical Storm

#46 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:56 pm

Debby is the perfect example of why you can't just assume some naked swirl in the subtropics won't develop because conditions don't appear favorable. Often times models struggle with these subtropics developments. Debby is no exception. Models had a weak low but not a bonafide TC.
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Tropical Storm

#47 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:47 am

214
WTNT44 KNHC 091434
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 09 2018

Debby continues to produce a small area of deep convection just
south of its exposed low-level center. Overnight and early this
morning, the cyclone passed over a warm eddy within the Gulf Stream,
and this may have provided enough energy to allow the cyclone to
maintain its convection and intensity. A recent ASCAT overpass
around 1230 UTC showed that the maximum winds of Debby are still
near 40 kt, but the cyclone has nearly opened up into a trough of
low pressure. Furthermore, the wind field has broadened, typically
an indication that a system is losing its tropical characteristics.

No significant changes have been made to the track or intensity
forecasts. The tropical storm continues to move quickly
northeastward, with an initial motion of 055/15 kt. The cyclone, or
its remnants, should accelerate northeastward today ahead of a
fast-moving shortwave trough until dissipation occurs. Debby is now
crossing over the northern wall of the Gulf Stream, so weakening is
expected to resume later today. The forecast conservatively shows
Debby as a post-tropical cyclone at 12 hours, but it is very
possible that Debby will dissipate later today as its forward speed
increases.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 44.5N 43.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 46.2N 39.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Tropical Storm

#48 Postby HurricaneRyan » Thu Aug 09, 2018 1:10 pm

Debby lasted longer than I thought she would
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

#49 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Aug 09, 2018 3:56 pm

Farewell, Debby!
388
WTNT44 KNHC 092036
TCDAT4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018
500 PM AST Thu Aug 09 2018

Debby has become post-tropical. The circulation of the cyclone has
become ill defined, and it is no longer producing enough organized
deep convection to be classified as a tropical cyclone. Therefore,
Debby has become post-tropical, and this is the last advisory. The
cyclone is accelerating northeastward ahead of a shortwave trough,
and this should continue for the next few hours until Debby opens up
into a trough of low pressure and merges with a larger frontal
boundary later tonight.

Debby is likely still producing gale-force winds to the southeast
of its center, however all of the guidance indicates that these
winds will gradually decrease through early tomorrow. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web
at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 45.5N 40.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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