EPAC: JOHN - Post-Tropical

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Cyclenall
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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Hurricane

#101 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Aug 08, 2018 11:47 am

John's inner core probably is collapsing. Rapid weakening and mushification is starting. IMO under hurricane strength now and in 12 hours 45 knots for winds to decline.

NHC Discussion #4 wrote:FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 15.5N 107.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 16.0N 108.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 17.0N 109.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 18.3N 111.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 19.8N 112.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 22.9N 116.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 25.5N 120.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 26.8N 125.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL


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Last edited by Cyclenall on Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Hurricane

#102 Postby Socalhurcnegirl227 » Wed Aug 08, 2018 8:32 pm

any inidication some decent remnants of john once he dissipated could make here to socal, a nice quick soaking would really help us
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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Hurricane

#103 Postby Twisted-core » Thu Aug 09, 2018 1:16 am

Best Track Position and Intensity as of:

Thursday, Aug. 9, 2018 0:00 Z

Wind (1 min. avg.):

70 knots (81 mph | 36 m/s | 130 km/h)

Gusts:

85 knots (98 mph | 44 m/s | 157 km/h)

Pressure:

983 mb (29.03 inHg | 983 hPa)

Location at the time:

248 statute miles (399 km) to the W (267°) from Cabo San Lucas, Baja California Sur, Mexico.

Coordinates:

22.7N 113.8W How far away is this from me?

Source:

National Hurricane Center's (NHC) Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting (ATCF) System and not from any available advisory data





TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E, , 14.6, -105.8, 35, 1006
TROPICAL STORM JOHN, , 14.9, -106.2, 40, 1004
TROPICAL STORM JOHN, , 15.1, -107.3, 60, 999
TROPICAL STORM JOHN, , 15.5, -107.9, 70, 993
HURRICANE JOHN, , 16.0, -108.0, 75, 990
HURRICANE JOHN, , 16.7, -108.6, 75, 989
HURRICANE JOHN, , 17.3, -109.1, 90, 977
HURRICANE JOHN, , 17.9, -109.8, 105, 969
HURRICANE JOHN, , 18.7, -110.5, 105, 969
HURRICANE JOHN, , 19.2, -111.1, 105, 969
HURRICANE JOHN, , 20.0, -111.6, 100, 972
HURRICANE JOHN, , 20.7, -112.3, 85, 979
HURRICANE JOHN, , 22.0, -113.5, 85, 979
HURRICANE JOHN, , 23.1, -114.4, 80, 983


Actually did quite well. Any cyclone that was over @100kts is a potent cyclonic storm. lucky it stayed ots.
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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Tropical Storm

#104 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 09, 2018 5:50 am

Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
200 AM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018

The satellite presentation of John continues to degrade, with the
central dense overcast decreasing in both size and intensity.
Scatterometer data also indicate that the low-level center is
southwest of the mid-level center, hinting that the circulation
could be decoupling. The initial wind speed is set to 60 kt, near
the latest TAFB and CIMSS-ADT estimates. John is rapidly moving
over cool waters into a dry stable airmass, which should cause
further weakening. The new NHC wind speed prediction follows the
trend of the HFIP corrected-consensus guidance (a top performer this
year), leading to a small reduction in the forecast. Remnant low
status is forecast after 36 hours when the cyclone moves over
sub-22C waters with little environmental instability.

John has turned leftward, now estimated at 305/14 kt. The tropical
cyclone should continue to gradually turn toward the west-northwest
over the next few days as it moves around a ridge situated over the
southwestern United States. John's remnants are likely to drift
northward or northwestward at long range in a region of weak
steering currents. The track guidance is in very good agreement and
the official forecast is close to the previous one.

John is producing large swells that are already affecting portions
of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula. These swells
are predicted to spread northward along the west coast of the
peninsula today and reach portions of the coast of southern
California by tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 23.7N 115.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 24.8N 117.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 25.9N 119.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 26.9N 121.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 27.5N 123.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0600Z 28.1N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0600Z 29.0N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Tropical Storm

#105 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:52 am

Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018
800 AM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018

John's structure hasn't changed much over the past few hours. A
combination of cool SSTs and stable air appear to be causing
convection to erode in the southern portion of the cyclone's
circulation. A blend of objective and subjective Dvorak
classifications was used to determine the initial intensity of 60
kt. The tropical storm will be moving over progressively cooler SSTs
for the next couple of days, and further weakening is inevitable.
The intensity models are in good agreement on the forecast weakening
rate, and John is still forecast to become a remnant low within the
next 48 h.

The initial motion continues near 305/14 kt. There is no change to
the reasoning behind the track forecast, and the new NHC forecast is
merely an update of the previous advisory. All of the guidance
remains in good agreement that the cyclone should will gradually
turn west-northwestward as it moves around a mid-level ridge
centered over the southwestern U.S. for the next few days. By the
end of the forecast period, the remnant low is likely to slow down
to a drift within an area of weak low-level steering flow.

Large swells associated with John are already affecting portions of
the coast of the Baja California peninsula and are forecast to
spread northward and reach portions of the southern California coast
by tonight. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 24.5N 117.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 25.5N 119.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 26.6N 121.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 27.4N 122.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 27.9N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1200Z 28.6N 125.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1200Z 29.5N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Tropical Storm

#106 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:38 pm

Image
Big John has become little John somehow. This is from 4.5 hours ago, now looks closer to being a naked swirl.
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Re: EPAC: JOHN - Tropical Storm

#107 Postby Twisted-core » Thu Aug 09, 2018 10:24 pm

Image
↺Extratropical...
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