CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

EC passing Hawaii around 14N. No reason to adjust the track any closer to Hawaii

[Kingarabian]

EC passing Hawaii around 14N. No reason to adjust the track any closer to Hawaii

Likely because it keeps Lane a 996mb TS in the central Pacific. If it remains near 14N it should be a major hurricane still.

[Alyono]

EC passing Hawaii around 14N. No reason to adjust the track any closer to Hawaii

Likely because it keeps Lane a 996mb TS in the central Pacific. If it remains near 14N it should be a major hurricane still.

according to HMON/HWRF, the shear extends that far south. Those models do not get north of 15N and they still blast Lane into pieces

[Kingarabian]

I'll believe the weakening until it happens. I know it seems like I'm beating a dead horse here, but let's not forget how explicitly bad the models were with Hectors intensity. Up until 48 hours before Hector reached that point, the GFS and its guidance modeled Hectors intensity to drop down to 980mb by the time it got to the south of the big Island.

Based on this CIMSS chart and assuming it doesn't change, Lane, a hurricane very well developed will have favorable upper level conditions until about 16.5-17N/155W, a lot more time than what the models show.





00z UKMET backs this notion up:

[Kingarabian]

TXPZ25 KNES 180633
TCSENP

A. 14E (LANE)

B. 18/0600Z

C. 11.8N

D. 136.2W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.5/12HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY B AND EMBEDDED IN B YIELDS A DT OF
6.5 AFTER A PLUS 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET IS 6.0 AND PT IS 6.5. FT IS
BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING THE CHANGE IN FT TO 1.5 IN 12HRS. THE 6HR
AVG DT DID NOT JUSTIFY BREAKING CONSTRAINTS

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

NHC BT up to 115kts/130mph.

[Chris90]

Went and got the grocery shopping done, come back and see that Lane has improved his presentation quite a bit. Looks really good on Dvorak. His presentation today has occasionally reminded me of Fernanda last year. Hopefully he'll stay south of Hawaii. I do hope that all of you Hawaii residents have your plan in place though just in case.

[Kingarabian]

00z EPS continues the trend, and has some more members shifting closer to Hawaii.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018
200 AM PDT Sat Aug 18 2018

The satellite presentation of Lane has improved significantly during
the past several hours with a distinct eye surrounded by very deep
convection and symmetric outflow. T-numbers from both TAFB and
SAB are 6.0 on the Dvorak scale, and on this basis, the initial
intensity has been increased to 115 kt. The hurricane is moving
within an environment of light shear, and this should allow some
additional strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that
time, guidance suggests that a slight weakening should begin
perhaps to a modest increase in shear. The NHC forecast does
not weaken Lane as fast as indicated by the intensity guidance.

Lane continues to move toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at
14 kt, steered by the trade winds south of the subtropical high.
Since the steering pattern is not expected to change much, this
general motion should continue during the next 3 to 5 days. An
expected weakening of the trades should result in a small decrease
in the hurricane's forward speed. Track models are tightly clustered
during the first 72 hours, and this increases the confidence in the
forecast. After that time, the model agreement is not as good,
resulting in a wider guidance envelope bounded by the GFS to the
north and ECMWF to the south. The NHC forecast follows very closely
the multi-model ensemble and the corrected consensus HCCA which are
in the middle of the envelope. No significant changes were made to
the previous NHC forecast


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 12.1N 137.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 12.5N 139.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 13.0N 141.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 13.7N 143.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 14.0N 145.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 14.5N 149.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 14.8N 153.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 23/0600Z 15.7N 156.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Kingarabian]

My god it has not stopped intensifying. This is definitely stronger than 115kts.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 943.0mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.8 6.8

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS slower and now intensifies Lane as it nears Hawaii:



Rapidly weakens as it rounds the big island and the TUTT shreds it, then gets caught in the low level flow thus never really making landfall.

[Alyono]

check out the simulated IR at 168 hours. That's not a shear signature. A storm that symmetric is not going to weaken by 20 mb in 6 hours. That looks like the GFS simply has the mountain too far west

[Ntxw]

Probably at least 120kts now

[BYG Jacob]

^Looks closer to 130 to me

[Ntxw]

What am I looking at?

It's not much right now, but some of the meanest and baddest hurricanes originated as open swirls that gradually built convection.

Nice call by the way . Mean and bad are good descriptions of his current state.


Lane has 6 units so far and will easily tack on another ~15 based on just the NHC forecast

[Yellow Evan]

This eye is cooling not warming. This isn't higher than 125 knots.

[Yellow Evan]

18/0600 UTC 11.8N 136.2W T6.5/6.5 LANE -- East Pacific

6z SAB revised to 6.5:

[Yellow Evan]

Still T6.5 to my surprise:

18/1200 UTC 12.1N 137.4W T6.5/6.5 LANE -- East Pacific

[Alyono]

HWRF has 50 kts of shear over this on Tuesday. That's why the storm collapses like Hilda did

[cycloneye]

120 kts.

EP, 14, 2018081812, , BEST, 0, 122N, 1375W, 120, 948, HU

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 AUG 2018 Time : 130000 UTC
Lat : 12:18:06 N Lon : 137:54:13 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 942.8mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.2 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -28.3C Cloud Region Temp : -70.2C

Scene Type : EYE