CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Iniki also had impressive northerly outflow as well, likely due to the same strong south westerlies.

[Ntxw]

That eye is spectacular. If only GOES-17 was operational.

[1900hurricane]

In addition to the western side getting closer to meeting width requirements on the white ring, there are a few CMG specs for I think the first time in the southern CDO on the 0200Z image. Nothing that would influence the DT, but it is a sign that the CDO is gradually getting colder.

[Twisted-core]

https://imgur.com/RYqdlDc

[Highteeld]

It's simply not good that Lane continues to be stronger than forecast, especially with a track towards Maui or Oahu in the cards.

It's held up very well and is looking better than it ever has in it's life so far. The fact that it has survived some big wind shear nearby and basically bullied its way enhanced by its own environment has changed the forecast the past week.

Yeah basically since 155W, it has forced a favorable wind shear environment.

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1032042516600770565

[Yellow Evan]

Still T6.5. W still too thin on the west side but getting better.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Warning Issued for Hawaii County / Hurricane Watch for OAHU

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 29
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 PM HST Tue Aug 21 2018

...POWERFUL HURRICANE LANE CONTINUES MOVING CLOSER TO THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR HAWAII COUNTY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 154.0W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SSE OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES



CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAWAII COUNTY.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OAHU.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI... LANAI... MOLOKAI
AND KAHOOLAWE
* OAHU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... AND ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE LANE. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

[Cerlin]

Don’t know too much about hurricanes but I’m sending my best wishes to Hawaii right now, Lane is one powerful cane.

[Blown Away]

Lane appears to be moving just S of forecast track...

[Yellow Evan]

Slightly OT but since many don't likely know about this as it's not in the CPHC archives and it relates to the Big Island:

 https://twitter.com/melinkin20/status/1032075872906489858

[supercane4867]

Won't surprise if recon finds 150kt sustained wind in the upcoming penetration.

[supercane4867]

Lane appears to be moving just S of forecast track...

Doesn't look like off-track to me. It's just stairstepping to the NW while wobbling at times.

[Sciencerocks]

Won't surprise if recon finds 150kt sustained wind in the upcoming penetration.

I think it is possible. We will see of course.

Probably another 5-8 mb drop in central pressure.

[Blown Away]

Lane appears to be moving just S of forecast track...

Doesn't look like off-track to me. It's just stairstepping to the NW while wobbling at times.

Look at the updated track, has Lane crossing 15N at 155W, earlier track crossing 15N @154.8... Slight S adjustment early may help down the road...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Lane appears to be moving just S of forecast track...

Doesn't look like off-track to me. It's just stairstepping to the NW while wobbling at times.

Look at the updated track, has Lane crossing 15N at 155W, earlier track crossing 15N @154.8... Slight S adjustment early may help down the road...

Wobbling around like that is totally normal for a storm of this intensity; focus on the 6-hour running averages, directly on track. Recon fix is needed to see exactly where the storm is located.

[Kingarabian]

Conflict of feeling for me right now. Cant help but to oooh and awe over Lane, yet knowing it's going to affect me is nuts.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Conflict of feeling for me right now. Cant help but to oooh and awe over Lane, yet knowing it's going to affect me is nuts.

Exactly the feeling I felt during Irma: awe that the Atlantic had produced such a once-in-a-lifetime hurricane in terms of strength and duration, horror watching the models slowly shift directly over my house in Tampa, Florida.

[cjrciadt]

Conflict of feeling for me right now. Cant help but to oooh and awe over Lane, yet knowing it's going to affect me is nuts.

That was me with Irma last year.

[Blown Away]

Doesn't look like off-track to me. It's just stairstepping to the NW while wobbling at times.

Look at the updated track, has Lane crossing 15N at 155W, earlier track crossing 15N @154.8... Slight S adjustment early may help down the road...

Wobbling around like that is totally normal for a storm of this intensity; focus on the 6-hour running averages, directly on track. Recon fix is needed to see exactly where the storm is located.

I generally agree with your statement, but CPHC did make @20 mile S shift in track early on. The anticipated NW has not begun, but should very soon...

[OahuWahine]

Conflict of feeling for me right now. Cant help but to oooh and awe over Lane, yet knowing it's going to affect me is nuts.

Couldn't have said it better myself. Every time I've said to someone today how beautiful Lane is, they've looked at me like I'm crazy. It is possible to admire something while also respecting/fearing it.