CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

looks like the entire recon fleet is going to Hawaii

Isn't that too much? Unless they're genuinely worried about a recurve.

[Kingarabian]

12z UKMET through the end of its run switches from a steady west heading to a pronounced WNW shift.

[Alyono]

looks like the entire recon fleet is going to Hawaii

Isn't that too much? Unless they're genuinely worried about a recurve.

I'm honestly not even sure any recon is needed. I see this passing Hawaii south of 15 right now

[Chris90]

It looks like they are flying a 10 hr research mission around Lane today, unless I read the recon schedule wrong. Does anyone know what exactly the research mission is for? I'm curious.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ25 KNES 161824
TCSENP

A. 14E (LANE)

B. 16/1800Z

C. 10.3N

D. 127.9W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...13/10 BANDING CAN BE SEEN USING 1514Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGERY. THIS RESULTS IN A DT OF 4.0. MET AND PT ARE 4.0. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

16/1514Z 10.4N 127.7W SSMIS


...ZHU

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* LANE EP142018 08/16/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 66 71 77 84 91 93 94 93 91 82 78
V (KT) LAND 55 61 66 71 77 84 91 93 94 93 91 82 78
V (KT) LGEM 55 60 66 70 73 79 85 91 94 92 86 77 69
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 11 11 9 9 9 3 3 4 5 6 8 17 20
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 0 0 -1 -4 -3 0 0 0 4 2 0
SHEAR DIR 11 15 358 10 10 17 8 348 3 334 294 276 280
SST (C) 28.0 28.1 27.4 27.4 26.9 27.0 26.3 27.1 26.9 27.1 26.5 27.1 27.3
POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 139 140 134 135 128 136 133 135 129 135 137
200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.4 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -53.4 -53.4 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -53.2
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8
700-500 MB RH 70 69 68 69 67 69 64 59 57 52 50 48 50
MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 15 16 18 17 20 22 24 24 26 23 24
850 MB ENV VOR -1 0 2 -1 -1 3 1 14 19 26 24 38 39
200 MB DIV 63 92 93 80 53 44 56 70 35 42 44 3 -1
700-850 TADV -5 -6 -8 -8 -6 -5 -4 0 1 2 4 6 6
LAND (KM) 2307 2398 2492 2584 2457 2166 1888 1602 1328 1082 872 684 527
LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.7 10.8 11.1 11.3 11.8 12.3 13.0 13.7 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.2
LONG(DEG W) 128.1 129.4 130.7 132.1 133.5 136.2 138.8 141.4 143.9 146.2 148.3 150.4 152.5
STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 14 14 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 10
HEAT CONTENT 20 21 18 20 13 10 12 18 19 20 13 22 18

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 23.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3.
PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 4. 3. 5. 8. 12. 14. 16. 12. 13.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 9. 7. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 22. 29. 36. 38. 39. 38. 36. 27. 23.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 10.5 128.1

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/16/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.46 4.9
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.54 5.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.16 1.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.58 5.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 5.6
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.94 6.8
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 180.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.67 -4.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 0.6

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 20.1% 45.6% 32.7% 20.5% 14.2% 23.2% 21.7% 10.2%
Logistic: 21.2% 46.1% 29.8% 22.1% 19.2% 24.1% 25.7% 9.0%
Bayesian: 20.9% 54.0% 39.4% 26.3% 2.6% 21.1% 5.0% 0.1%
Consensus: 20.7% 48.6% 34.0% 23.0% 12.0% 22.8% 17.5% 6.4%
DTOPS: 36.0% 91.0% 84.0% 67.0% 58.0% 85.0% 61.0% 7.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/16/18 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX

[Kingarabian]

looks like the entire recon fleet is going to Hawaii

Isn't that too much? Unless they're genuinely worried about a recurve.

I'm honestly not even sure any recon is needed. I see this passing Hawaii south of 15 right now

The Euro's track makes sense for a TS to keep moving west in to the CPAC. I just don't know if that'll certainly be the case if Lane is a major hurricane entering the CPAC.

[cycloneye]

EP, 14, 2018081618, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1281W, 60, 997, TS

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018
200 PM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Satellite images indicate that Lane is trying to form a ragged eye,
with an interesting mid-level mesocyclone rotating counterclockwise
around the northern side of the circulation. While Dvorak estimates
from TAFB/SAB indicate Lane is already a hurricane, values from
microwave data are a bit lower, and the cyclone only recently
started to potentially form an eye. The initial wind speed is set
to 60 kt, close to the latest CIMSS SATCON figure. Further
intensification is expected, and given the warm waters, low shear
and moderate mid-level humidity, rapid intensification is a
distinct possibility. The new NHC forecast is basically an update
from the previous one, on the high side of the guidance, and could
be conservative.

The initial motion estimate continues at 275/11. The synoptic
pattern is well defined with a subtropical ridge persisting to the
north. While the ridge could weaken somewhat in a few days, a west
or west-northwestward track is anticipated throughout the forecast
period. The spread in the guidance has decreased somewhat since
the last advisory, and the newest model consensus has basically
come in right on top of the last NHC forecast. Thus the new NHC
track prediction is nearly unchanged, staying close to a blend of
the dynamical model consensus and the corrected-consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 10.6N 128.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 10.9N 130.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 11.4N 133.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 11.9N 136.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 12.5N 139.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 13.8N 143.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 14.8N 148.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 15.3N 152.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Kingarabian]

Damn Lane, how much spiraling bands does one need?

[Kingarabian]

That NW turn by the UKMET at the end of its run shows that this still needs to be monitored:

[hurricanes1234]

Damn Lane, how much spiraling bands does one need?

Looks like a galaxy.

[Kingarabian]

Quite the dry air ingestion on the past few frames. Which is puzzling due to the high RH surrounding it and the low shear environment.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS is slower than the UKMET but almost shows the same thing, as it begins a WNW/NW turn around hour 150 through 180. Thus it's more north on this run:



Also important to note is that the western track solutions by the current Euro runs and the 18z GFS have been based on a weaker Lane. The GFS solutionsshowing a more northerly track are when it shows Lane being stronger. Since the models did a horrible job with Hector's intensity, I still say we're going to need a bit more time before we can come to any conclusions.

[ncapps]

Euro ensembles are really locked in. Next 72 hours should tell alot about what, if any, impacts are for Hawaii.

[Kingarabian]

Could see them shift north if Lane does what Hector did.They likely keep that western track since most of them never keep/make Lane a hurricane. But GEFS members since they're stronger are further north.

[Kingarabian]

Hour and a half old AMSR2 pass shows that Lane has a large eye trying to wrap around and is dealing with dry air entrainment:



May take a little bit longer than expected to consolidate, but I believe this is surely a hurricane.

[ncapps]

Hour and a half old AMSR2 pass shows that Lane has a large eye trying to wrap around and is dealing with dry air entrainment:



May take a little bit longer than expected to consolidate, but I believe this is surely a hurricane.

Neat imagery. Does this data get ingested into the 0z runs?

Lane is a shaping up to be a pretty storm, but that is a significant amount of dry air in an environment that wouldn't lead you to believe there was much of any. Do you think having Hector in the same basin so recently has a stabilizing effect on the environment?

[Kingarabian]

Hour and a half old AMSR2 pass shows that Lane has a large eye trying to wrap around and is dealing with dry air entrainment:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/GSR2xDO.png[img]

May take a little bit longer than expected to consolidate, but I believe this is surely a hurricane.

Neat imagery. Does this data get ingested into the 0z runs?

Lane is a shaping up to be a pretty storm, but that is a significant amount of dry air in an environment that wouldn't lead you to believe there was much of any. Do you think having Hector in the same basin so recently has a stabilizing effect on the environment?

I believe so, since most if not all global models get most of their data from satellite imagery.

Hector did put a toll on the SST's due to it being a strong hurricane. While relative humidity is acceptable in Lane's embedded environment, it looks like it's large scale subsidence that's causing the core to be relatively dry, similar to the other large storms we had in Fabio and John. But Lane has time on its side compared to those last two larger systems.

[Kingarabian]

Another fresh microwave pass, this time an SSMI F-15 shot, shows hints of a cyan ring. Which would be a strong precursor for rapid intensification: