CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

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galaxy401
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#921 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Aug 21, 2018 4:28 pm

I'm fine with them keeping it at 135 knts. Slightly confused on why they raised the pressure when it looks like it went down.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#922 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Aug 21, 2018 4:30 pm

NotoSans wrote:
Kazmit wrote:Why didn't they upgrade it? The evidence is clear.

The advisory package was issued before the latest center pass showing 140-knot winds.


Would there be an intermediate advisory?
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#923 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Aug 21, 2018 4:31 pm

This is terrifying; to see a Category 4/5 this close to Hawaii is incredible.

Image
Last edited by Hypercane_Kyle on Tue Aug 21, 2018 4:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#924 Postby NotoSans » Tue Aug 21, 2018 4:31 pm

mrbagyo wrote:
NotoSans wrote:
Kazmit wrote:Why didn't they upgrade it? The evidence is clear.

The advisory package was issued before the latest center pass showing 140-knot winds.


Would there be an intermediate advisory?


Next intermediate advisory is scheduled at 00Z, but not sure if CPHC will issue a special advisory for a category-5 upgrade.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#925 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 21, 2018 4:32 pm

NotoSans wrote:
Kazmit wrote:Why didn't they upgrade it? The evidence is clear.

The advisory package was issued before the latest center pass showing 140-knot winds.


NHC in these type of cases delay the advisory until the center fix is finished.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#926 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 21, 2018 4:34 pm

18z GFS rolling.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#927 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 21, 2018 4:35 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NotoSans wrote:
Kazmit wrote:Why didn't they upgrade it? The evidence is clear.

The advisory package was issued before the latest center pass showing 140-knot winds.


NHC in these type of cases delay the advisory until the center fix is finished.


Cut them a little slack. They're likely swarmed with work and the advisory is suppose to be released at 21z not when the VDM comes at in this case 21:30z.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#928 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 21, 2018 4:35 pm

LOL at GFS

weakens this from 948mb at 18Z to 970mb by 0Z
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#929 Postby johngaltfla » Tue Aug 21, 2018 4:38 pm

Good luck to all our S2K friends in Hawaii. You are in our prayers.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#930 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 21, 2018 4:38 pm

6 mb drop in an hour is pretty significant.

really no reason not to upgrade given the data.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#931 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 21, 2018 4:39 pm

Alyono wrote:LOL at GFS

weakens this from 948mb at 18Z to 970mb by 0Z


Yep both the Euro and GFS are having a hard time with the turbulent flow off the big island.
shear alone would not weaken it that fast...
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#932 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Aug 21, 2018 4:40 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:6 mb drop in an hour is pretty significant.

really no reason not to upgrade given the data.



I feel it is a downright joke for them not to upgrade this to a cat5.

It is staring in the face of the data and saying oh who are you going to believe? My unwillingness to upgrade or the solid data supporting that upgrade. This isn't science.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#933 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Aug 21, 2018 4:41 pm

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1031987869064351745


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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#934 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 21, 2018 4:42 pm

There is absolutely no need for a special advisory. Winds are only 5 kts higher than in the advisory that was just issued.

A special advisory is issued when vital life saving information needs to be conveyed, not to satisfy posters at s2k
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#935 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 21, 2018 4:43 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
NotoSans wrote:The advisory package was issued before the latest center pass showing 140-knot winds.


NHC in these type of cases delay the advisory until the center fix is finished.


Cut them a little slack. They're likely swarmed with work and the advisory is suppose to be released at 21z not when the VDM comes at in this case 21:30z.


I appreciate their hard work, but it's also important to have the correct information out.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#936 Postby NotoSans » Tue Aug 21, 2018 4:45 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
NHC in these type of cases delay the advisory until the center fix is finished.


Cut them a little slack. They're likely swarmed with work and the advisory is suppose to be released at 21z not when the VDM comes at in this case 21:30z.


I appreciate their hard work, but it's also important to have the correct information out.


To be fair to CPHC, concrete evidence for a category-5 upgrade came in right after they issued the latest advisory package, so can't say they were being absurdly inaccurate as long as they increased the intensity in the next advisory.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#937 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Aug 21, 2018 4:46 pm

Alyono wrote:There is absolutely no need for a special advisory. Winds are only 5 kts higher than in the advisory that was just issued.

A special advisory is issued when vital life saving information needs to be conveyed, not to satisfy posters at s2k

You are right, but I think the NHC would still issue a special advisory. Not sure about CPHC though.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#938 Postby Dylan » Tue Aug 21, 2018 4:46 pm

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1032020770132779008


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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#939 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 21, 2018 4:47 pm

GFS a bit west, but that initial weakening...
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#940 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 21, 2018 4:48 pm

supercane4867 wrote:
Alyono wrote:There is absolutely no need for a special advisory. Winds are only 5 kts higher than in the advisory that was just issued.

A special advisory is issued when vital life saving information needs to be conveyed, not to satisfy posters at s2k

You are right, but I think the NHC would still issue a special advisory. Not sure about CPHC though.


A TC update would just do the trick.
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