CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
major south shift for ukmet
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 19.08.2018
HURRICANE LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 12.4N 140.6W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.08.2018 0 12.4N 140.6W 976 79
1200UTC 19.08.2018 12 12.4N 142.8W 984 69
0000UTC 20.08.2018 24 12.6N 144.8W 981 62
1200UTC 20.08.2018 36 12.8N 146.7W 981 61
0000UTC 21.08.2018 48 12.8N 148.4W 979 60
1200UTC 21.08.2018 60 12.8N 150.2W 979 61
0000UTC 22.08.2018 72 13.1N 152.1W 980 62
1200UTC 22.08.2018 84 13.5N 154.2W 978 67
0000UTC 23.08.2018 96 14.0N 156.3W 977 64
1200UTC 23.08.2018 108 14.8N 158.4W 977 63
0000UTC 24.08.2018 120 15.8N 160.2W 977 63
1200UTC 24.08.2018 132 16.9N 161.5W 969 71
0000UTC 25.08.2018 144 18.0N 162.5W 972 68
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 19.08.2018
HURRICANE LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 12.4N 140.6W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.08.2018 0 12.4N 140.6W 976 79
1200UTC 19.08.2018 12 12.4N 142.8W 984 69
0000UTC 20.08.2018 24 12.6N 144.8W 981 62
1200UTC 20.08.2018 36 12.8N 146.7W 981 61
0000UTC 21.08.2018 48 12.8N 148.4W 979 60
1200UTC 21.08.2018 60 12.8N 150.2W 979 61
0000UTC 22.08.2018 72 13.1N 152.1W 980 62
1200UTC 22.08.2018 84 13.5N 154.2W 978 67
0000UTC 23.08.2018 96 14.0N 156.3W 977 64
1200UTC 23.08.2018 108 14.8N 158.4W 977 63
0000UTC 24.08.2018 120 15.8N 160.2W 977 63
1200UTC 24.08.2018 132 16.9N 161.5W 969 71
0000UTC 25.08.2018 144 18.0N 162.5W 972 68
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- Kingarabian
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
This run is really going all out. Just sits off BI almost stationary and strengthens. Ohau landfall it looks like...tomorrow night it will be BI.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
Through day six. Headed to Maui. This run is lost.
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:20 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
Alyono wrote:major south shift for ukmet
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 19.08.2018
HURRICANE LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 12.4N 140.6W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.08.2018 0 12.4N 140.6W 976 79
1200UTC 19.08.2018 12 12.4N 142.8W 984 69
0000UTC 20.08.2018 24 12.6N 144.8W 981 62
1200UTC 20.08.2018 36 12.8N 146.7W 981 61
0000UTC 21.08.2018 48 12.8N 148.4W 979 60
1200UTC 21.08.2018 60 12.8N 150.2W 979 61
0000UTC 22.08.2018 72 13.1N 152.1W 980 62
1200UTC 22.08.2018 84 13.5N 154.2W 978 67
0000UTC 23.08.2018 96 14.0N 156.3W 977 64
1200UTC 23.08.2018 108 14.8N 158.4W 977 63
0000UTC 24.08.2018 120 15.8N 160.2W 977 63
1200UTC 24.08.2018 132 16.9N 161.5W 969 71
0000UTC 25.08.2018 144 18.0N 162.5W 972 68
Certainly good news. 162.5W keeps this well offshore barring any NE motion.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
Yellow Evan wrote:Alyono wrote:major south shift for ukmet
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 19.08.2018
HURRICANE LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 12.4N 140.6W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.08.2018 0 12.4N 140.6W 976 79
1200UTC 19.08.2018 12 12.4N 142.8W 984 69
0000UTC 20.08.2018 24 12.6N 144.8W 981 62
1200UTC 20.08.2018 36 12.8N 146.7W 981 61
0000UTC 21.08.2018 48 12.8N 148.4W 979 60
1200UTC 21.08.2018 60 12.8N 150.2W 979 61
0000UTC 22.08.2018 72 13.1N 152.1W 980 62
1200UTC 22.08.2018 84 13.5N 154.2W 978 67
0000UTC 23.08.2018 96 14.0N 156.3W 977 64
1200UTC 23.08.2018 108 14.8N 158.4W 977 63
0000UTC 24.08.2018 120 15.8N 160.2W 977 63
1200UTC 24.08.2018 132 16.9N 161.5W 969 71
0000UTC 25.08.2018 144 18.0N 162.5W 972 68
Certainly good news. 162.5W keeps this well offshore barring any NE motion.
Good news for sure, this GFS run muddies things a bit. I guess it comes down to speed in the end, which should become fairly evident by Monday or so.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
Alyono wrote:Maui landfall? Really GFS?
I'm pretty sure it's going to make a secondary landfall on BI. It's that crazy of a run.
I cant wait to see the ensembles...
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
Here is where the storm was expected to be at 0z:
24H 19/0000Z 12.7N 140.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 13.1N 140.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 12.9N 140.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 13.8N 138.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
ATCF point at 0z was 12.6N 140.3W so further south and a little further east. So a hair slower on balance so far.
24H 19/0000Z 12.7N 140.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 13.1N 140.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 12.9N 140.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 13.8N 138.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
ATCF point at 0z was 12.6N 140.3W so further south and a little further east. So a hair slower on balance so far.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
ncapps wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:Alyono wrote:major south shift for ukmet
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 19.08.2018
HURRICANE LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 12.4N 140.6W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.08.2018 0 12.4N 140.6W 976 79
1200UTC 19.08.2018 12 12.4N 142.8W 984 69
0000UTC 20.08.2018 24 12.6N 144.8W 981 62
1200UTC 20.08.2018 36 12.8N 146.7W 981 61
0000UTC 21.08.2018 48 12.8N 148.4W 979 60
1200UTC 21.08.2018 60 12.8N 150.2W 979 61
0000UTC 22.08.2018 72 13.1N 152.1W 980 62
1200UTC 22.08.2018 84 13.5N 154.2W 978 67
0000UTC 23.08.2018 96 14.0N 156.3W 977 64
1200UTC 23.08.2018 108 14.8N 158.4W 977 63
0000UTC 24.08.2018 120 15.8N 160.2W 977 63
1200UTC 24.08.2018 132 16.9N 161.5W 969 71
0000UTC 25.08.2018 144 18.0N 162.5W 972 68
Certainly good news. 162.5W keeps this well offshore barring any NE motion.
Good news for sure, this GFS run muddies things a bit. I guess it comes down to speed in the end, which should become fairly evident by Monday or so.
In terms of credibility UKMET > GFS.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
Canadian with a massive south shift as well
GFS can be given the zero weight that it deserves
GFS can be given the zero weight that it deserves
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- Kingarabian
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
Yellow Evan wrote:Here is where the storm was expected to be at 0z:
24H 19/0000Z 12.7N 140.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 13.1N 140.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 12.9N 140.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 13.8N 138.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
ATCF point at 0z was 12.6N 140.3W so further south and a little further east. So a hair slower on balance so far.
That means the GFS is not far off.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
Kingarabian wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:Here is where the storm was expected to be at 0z:
24H 19/0000Z 12.7N 140.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 13.1N 140.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 12.9N 140.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 13.8N 138.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
ATCF point at 0z was 12.6N 140.3W so further south and a little further east. So a hair slower on balance so far.
That means the GFS is not far off.
the speed difference is not pronounced as its progged to be in a couple days
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
ncapps wrote:Alyono wrote:Maui landfall? Really GFS?
I'm pretty sure it's going to make a secondary landfall on BI. It's that crazy of a run.
I cant wait to see the ensembles...
Ensembles will be over Hawaii for sure. I was expecting to see it shift west away from Kauai but a hit on Maui is nuts.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
FV3 GFS is coming in a hair slower and a bit stronger.
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- Yellow Evan
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
Looking at the GFS they've been moving the storm too far northeast with a few exceptions so far. ECMWF has been closer to the reverse.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
Yellow Evan wrote:
Not sure if still a major.
not sure if its a major? That microwave is not even consistent with a hurricane signature. Of course, it will take time for the winds to die down. But this could be a low end cat 2 or a strong cat 1 now
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