CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

TPPZ01 PGTW 190300

A. HURRICANE 14E (LANE)

B. 19/0230Z

C. 12.66N

D. 140.95W

E. FIVE/GOES15

F. T5.0/6.0 STT: W1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 44A/PBO LARGE CDO/ANMTN. EMBEDDED CENTER WHITE
YIELDS DT 5.0. PT 4.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


DARLOW

[Yellow Evan]

[ncapps]

0Z GFS rolling in; weakens Lane substantially next 24 hours. Encountering pretty significant shear.

[Kingarabian]

0Z GFS rolling in; weakens Lane substantially next 24 hours. Encountering pretty significant shear.

Also manages to slow it down again.

[ncapps]

0Z GFS rolling in; weakens Lane substantially next 24 hours. Encountering pretty significant shear.

Also manages to slow it down again.

I noticed that too. Really mind blowing with the pace the GFS has had this on.

[Yellow Evan]

Through 42 hours.

[Kingarabian]

Only about 5mb weaker on this run through 48 hours.

[Yellow Evan]

0Z GFS rolling in; weakens Lane substantially next 24 hours. Encountering pretty significant shear.

Really only weakens this in the next six hours.

[Kingarabian]

0Z GFS rolling in; weakens Lane substantially next 24 hours. Encountering pretty significant shear.

Really only weakens this in the next six hours.

Yeah it's pretty much a tossup on Lanes intensity at this point. What's interesting is the slow down.

[Kingarabian]

Now stronger through 72 hours.

[Yellow Evan]

Some deepening on Tuesday.

[Mauistorms]

but what are the chances of it impacting Hawaii? I'm so confused.

[ncapps]

but what are the chances of it impacting Hawaii? I'm so confused.

Tough to say, alot will depend on the speed at which Lane continues to move at through the next three days. The quicker the better.

[Kingarabian]

but what are the chances of it impacting Hawaii? I'm so confused.

Just follow us on here, we'll keep you updated before anyone else. Just make sure you have a plan and supplies ready.

[Yellow Evan]

Through hour 84. Bending back to the west.

[Kingarabian]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/iydnqyM.png[img]

Through hour 84. Bending back to the west.

Its stair stepping NW. 962mb hour 102. Its following the previous runs just slower.

[hawaiigirl]

I’ve been in this thread just lurking from the begining and I just want to say Much mahalo to all of you for keeping us in the loop. Hoping for another miss. Love reading all of your posts even though I don’t understand half of it.

[ncapps]

I dont think this will be a good run for Kauai.

[Yellow Evan]

Through hour 102. Still slower and start to gain latitude.

[Yellow Evan]

I dont think this will be a good run for Kauai.

My guess is this ends up a little further east than 18z. Maybe a bigger threat to Oahu.

As for my take on the entire thing, I don't buy the GFS fully but unlike ECMWF I do think they'll be a bit of a WNW motion. 12z UKMET might be the most reasonable track.