CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

fortunately, the great Hawaiian Shear appears as if it will be present if this does decide to head toward the islands

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS shows a minimal cat.1 landfall followed by decoupling.

[ncapps]

Right as I thought Hawaii was out of the woods...this will surely throw a wrench into things, track wise.

[Kingarabian]

Right as I thought Hawaii was out of the woods...this will surely throw a wrench into things, track wise.

Yeah we can never leave our guards down.

[StruThiO]

[ncapps]

I think I'll end up postponing our trip to the Islands the 24th if the GFS is right. The rain following the Lane could be torrential.

[Mauistorms]

I have been following this convo for a few days. So interesting although I only understand some of it. I was on Kauai for Iniki and have been a bit obsessed with hurricanes ever since. on Maui now and really appreciate al lof your information. Mahalo

[Alyono]

south point is not exactly heavily populated. Kona is, but the flow would be downslope flow most likely, keeping the rains relatively light there

[Yellow Evan]

I should remind everyone that models have an east bias with this kind of setup. Also if this gets torn apart and decouples, this will just continue west and get steered by the low-level flow.

[ncapps]

south point is not exactly heavily populated. Kona is, but the flow would be downslope flow most likely, keeping the rains relatively light there

Yes, Kona looks to get downsloped in the GFS, other islands and there populated areas, not so much. The GFS makes Lane look like a super soaker for a 3 or 4 days.

[Kingarabian]

I think I'll end up postponing our trip to the Islands the 24th if the GFS is right. The rain following the Lane could be torrential.

When Iselle hit the big island Oahu got very little rain. However when Debbie passed by we got flooded out.

[Siker]

Little visualization of the 00z UKMET:

[Kingarabian]

I should remind everyone that models have an east bias with this kind of setup. Also if this gets torn apart and decouples, this will just continue west and get steered by the low-level flow.

While the models other than the UKMET (and even the GFS until recently) show shear being present to weaken Lane, the great Hawaiian shear (the TUTT) is not guaranteed to be there.

The models dont firmly keep the upper trough situated such that it completely shears Lane as we normally would see happen. Plus if Lane maintains its strength as a strong hurricane, it'll keep its anti cyclone longer and keep a favorable upper level pattern longer.

[Kingarabian]

Lane is still rapidly intensifying. I would say its 125kts now. Solid white ring and very warm eye, it's almost a T6.5 on Dvorak.

[Alyono]

HMON and HWRF shift south

also, this looks to get BLASTED apart on Tuesday in those models. I'd trust those two in a high shear environment due to explicit convection

[Kingarabian]

HMON and HWRF shift south

also, this looks to get BLASTED apart on Tuesday in those models. I'd trust those two in a high shear environment due to explicit convection

I sure hope their forecasts are correct.

[Yellow Evan]

Yeah this is a T6.5 as of right now with WMG eye embedded in B with W ring.

[Alyono]

Almost wonder if this will be similar to Hilda from 3 years ago. Bombs out in this general area only to be shredded southeast of Hawaii

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro coming in slower again.

[Alyono]

FV3 GFS has this passing Hawaii at 14.5N

Of course, it has it weakening starting now