CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS initialized at 975mb lol.

[Yellow Evan]

T5.5. Barely short of a T6.0.

[CrazyC83]

NOAA plane is close to the storm, while the AF plane just took off.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS through hour 24:

[Yellow Evan]

About the same as previous run through hour 30.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS not budging.

[Chris90]

Quick amateur hypothesis from me: if Lane did pull off one of those eyewall meld situations, could this be a feature that happens in cyclones that are traveling west under a ridge? Irma pulled it off last year in those conditions, and I believe Haiyan did as well back in '13.
I'm really out of my league here as I lack the education, but could those conditions somehow force the new eyewall to just feed into the current one? Maybe something to do with the pressure gradient, considering these storms produce stronger than typical winds at higher pressures?

Would love to hear opinions from the more educated trackers and pro mets if you have any thoughts on it.

[Mauistorms]

Hanging on to every word over here on Maui. Confused most of the time but grateful for all of the info and updates. Made a run to Costco today and stocked up on supplies for family of 5. Everyone I talk to thinks I'm nuts. Official CPHC updates all keep Lane to the west... Wish I understood what all of the numbers and different reading mean haha.

[Ntxw]

Hanging on to every word over here on Maui. Confused most of the time but grateful for all of the info and updates. Made a run to Costco today and stocked up on supplies for family of 5. Everyone I talk to thinks I'm nuts. Official CPHC updates all keep Lane to the west... Wish I understood what all of the numbers and different reading mean haha.

In short, it all means Lane is an intense, big hurricane right now. High end major. We'll get some definitive answers from recon in terms of strength soon. It is good that you are preparing and continue to follow the forecast/warnings from CPHC as the situation is very fluid.

[Yellow Evan]

Through hour 60. A little more north this run.

[1900hurricane]

It didn't look like an "eyewall meld" to me, at least how I would define them. I would call an eyewall meld one where where the outer eyewall melds in with the dominant inner eyewall. This just looked like a rather seamless eyewall replacement cycle since the outer eyewall appears to have took over.

[Alyono]

big change with this GFS is NO SHEAR until after landfall. Comes in as a cat 3 this run

[Kingarabian]

Looks like a cat.4 landfall on the 00z GFS.

[Yellow Evan]

Further east and stronger at landfall in 3 days now.

[Kingarabian]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/Ji8r2E8.png[mg]

Further east and stronger at landfall in 3 days now.

We need watches or warnings ASAP.

[Yellow Evan]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/Ji8r2E8.png[mg]

Further east and stronger at landfall in 3 days now.

We need watches or warnings ASAP.

IMO CPHC should issue a hurricane watch via TC update.

[Alyono]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/Ji8r2E8.png[mg]

Further east and stronger at landfall in 3 days now.

We need watches or warnings ASAP.

IMO CPHC should issue a hurricane watch via TC update.

too soon. TS winds likely not for 60-72 hours

[Ntxw]

[Ntxw]

Recon might just be hitting Lane at the right time. What a scary thing that might be unfolding.

[ncapps]

Welp, now you really hope the GFS is just flat out wrong. But it doesnt feel that way.