CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
Flooding could huge if this decouples and moves west due to interaction with the Big Island.
Probably the biggest doom runs I've seen in the EPAC outside of Patricia.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
WTNT82 EGRR 210402
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 21.08.2018
HURRICANE LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 149.6W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.08.2018 0 13.5N 149.6W 983 57
1200UTC 21.08.2018 12 14.0N 151.4W 990 57
0000UTC 22.08.2018 24 14.2N 152.6W 989 51
1200UTC 22.08.2018 36 14.7N 153.8W 986 50
0000UTC 23.08.2018 48 15.4N 155.1W 983 56
1200UTC 23.08.2018 60 16.1N 156.1W 982 56
0000UTC 24.08.2018 72 17.2N 156.6W 979 56
1200UTC 24.08.2018 84 18.7N 156.5W 974 65
0000UTC 25.08.2018 96 19.8N 157.0W 1000 48
1200UTC 25.08.2018 108 19.7N 157.9W 1003 34
0000UTC 26.08.2018 120 19.4N 158.9W 1004 32
1200UTC 26.08.2018 132 18.9N 160.1W 1005 27
0000UTC 27.08.2018 144 18.9N 161.2W 1005 27
could not have had a worse initialization
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 21.08.2018
HURRICANE LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 149.6W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.08.2018 0 13.5N 149.6W 983 57
1200UTC 21.08.2018 12 14.0N 151.4W 990 57
0000UTC 22.08.2018 24 14.2N 152.6W 989 51
1200UTC 22.08.2018 36 14.7N 153.8W 986 50
0000UTC 23.08.2018 48 15.4N 155.1W 983 56
1200UTC 23.08.2018 60 16.1N 156.1W 982 56
0000UTC 24.08.2018 72 17.2N 156.6W 979 56
1200UTC 24.08.2018 84 18.7N 156.5W 974 65
0000UTC 25.08.2018 96 19.8N 157.0W 1000 48
1200UTC 25.08.2018 108 19.7N 157.9W 1003 34
0000UTC 26.08.2018 120 19.4N 158.9W 1004 32
1200UTC 26.08.2018 132 18.9N 160.1W 1005 27
0000UTC 27.08.2018 144 18.9N 161.2W 1005 27
could not have had a worse initialization
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
UKMET barely misses the Big Island, despite a horse you know what initialization
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
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- StruThiO
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
I've held off commenting until now, but the situation seems to only be getting scarier. Good luck and stay safe King and Hawaiian residents, hoping gfs doesn't even come close to verifying.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
Alyono wrote:WTNT82 EGRR 210402
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 21.08.2018
HURRICANE LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 149.6W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.08.2018 0 13.5N 149.6W 983 57
1200UTC 21.08.2018 12 14.0N 151.4W 990 57
0000UTC 22.08.2018 24 14.2N 152.6W 989 51
1200UTC 22.08.2018 36 14.7N 153.8W 986 50
0000UTC 23.08.2018 48 15.4N 155.1W 983 56
1200UTC 23.08.2018 60 16.1N 156.1W 982 56
0000UTC 24.08.2018 72 17.2N 156.6W 979 56
1200UTC 24.08.2018 84 18.7N 156.5W 974 65
0000UTC 25.08.2018 96 19.8N 157.0W 1000 48
1200UTC 25.08.2018 108 19.7N 157.9W 1003 34
0000UTC 26.08.2018 120 19.4N 158.9W 1004 32
1200UTC 26.08.2018 132 18.9N 160.1W 1005 27
0000UTC 27.08.2018 144 18.9N 161.2W 1005 27
could not have had a worse initialization
What is going on over here
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
the UKMET interacts with the Big Island. It is in the topography area based upon that plot
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- Kazmit
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
Before the season started, I heard a lot of talk about a big season for Hawaii and the cpac in general. Hector was an indicator of this. Unfortunately, this could be a historic storm for the state.
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Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
StruThiO wrote::eek: I've held off commenting until now, but the situation seems to only be getting scarier. Good luck and stay safe King and Hawaiian residents, hoping gfs doesn't even come close to verifying.
at this point, may want to take the GFS and run. The GFS affects relatively few people. UKMET may actually be worse as it goes after the population center. Anything toward Maui or Oahu will be catastrophic
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- Yellow Evan
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
Really warm eye now.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Kingarabian
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
Should have the center fix within the next half hour. But the strongest winds would in the NE quad right?
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
Kingarabian wrote:Should have the center fix within the next half hour. But the strongest winds would in the NE quad right?
RFQ would be the N in this case as it's moving generally W.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
This for sure underwent an ERC. Windfield per recon is broader than before.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
Kingarabian wrote:Should have the center fix within the next half hour. But the strongest winds would in the NE quad right?
They should be. General rule of thumb is take its current heading and add 90 degrees to the right to find area where strongest winds should be located. Should be somewhere around the NNW-NNE portion of the eyewall.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
Very weird end of the run. Ex-Lane hanging around as it recurves OTS.
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- Kingarabian
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- Kingarabian
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