CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#701 Postby Alyono » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:40 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Alyono, would that UKMET shift the cone east?


I think with what we're seeing, the forecast has to shift east
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#702 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:42 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Probably a similar intensity (110-115 kt is my guess), but with a more representative deeper pressure.


Spot on! 955mb, and supports winds 115kts.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#703 Postby Alyono » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:42 pm

at least the iwnds have not increased as per recon. Only justifies 110-115 kts on the first pass. Pressure quite a bit lower, though
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#704 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:42 pm

What a bizarre chain of events. I have family in Honolulu who are in living near the Air Force base who recently moved there this year from Florida but have no idea what to expect.
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#705 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:44 pm

Alyono wrote:at least the iwnds have not increased as per recon. Only justifies 110-115 kts on the first pass. Pressure quite a bit lower, though


Strongest winds should be on the N though.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#706 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:51 pm

Image

B ring getting back together. This is deepening quickly.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#707 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:51 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:[img]https://i.imgur.com/CHY8KXZ.jpg[/mg]

B ring getting back together. This is deepening quickly.


On it's way to a T6.5?
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#708 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:52 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Image

B ring getting back together. This is deepening quickly.


On it's way to a T6.5?


Yes not that it matters much with Recon.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#709 Postby Chris90 » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:58 pm

Eyewall dropsonde in the western eyewall measured 142kt gust 30mb above the surface. Will be quite interested to see what they find in the northern portions of the eyewall.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#710 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:59 pm

Can't believe I'm saying this, but 00z NAVGEM running.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#711 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:01 am

HMON is a touch SW of the 18Z
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#712 Postby Cunxi Huang » Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:03 am

Can't believe this is happening...Earlier AMSR2 showed LANE was undergoing an ERC but now it seems the cycle is completed.

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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#713 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:13 am

NAVGEM stuck at 12 hrs.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#714 Postby Chris90 » Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:15 am

Dropsonde in the E eyewall measured a 130kt average over lowest 500m, and 118kt average over lowest 150m.
I expect them to find SFMR winds to support an intensity higher than 115kts in the northern eyewall.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#715 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:16 am

NAVGEM is plowing into the Big Island
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#716 Postby NotoSans » Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:16 am

Typical example showing how winds can actually lag satellite presentation, but I expect winds to catch up soon.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#717 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:21 am

Image

Eye warming. Making a run at Category 5 Recon aside.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#718 Postby Mauistorms » Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:24 am

What does Cat 5 mean for the path?
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#719 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:24 am

HWRF slight east shift.
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GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
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ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#720 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:25 am

Mauistorms wrote:What does Cat 5 mean for the path?

If there's going to be shear, it'll be able to maintain a stronger intensity.
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