Hurricane Watch Issued for Hawaii and Maui Counties
BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 27
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 AM HST Tue Aug 21 2018
...MAJOR HURRICANE LANE STILL MOVING WEST BUT EXPECTED TO MAKE A
TURN TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATER THIS WEEK...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR HAWAII AND MAUI COUNTIES...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 152.3W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSE OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES
Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 27
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 AM HST Tue Aug 21 2018
Lane remains a powerful hurricane this morning, with a well-
developed warm eye completely surrounded by persistent cold cloud
tops. Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates were a
unanimous 6.5/127 kt while ADT was in relative agreement. The
initial intensity for this advisory remains at 130 kt as Lane's
satellite signature has changed little since last sampled by
Hurricane Hunters and the NOAA P-3 Monday evening.
The initial motion for this advisory is 275/10 kt, with Lane
continuing to be steered by a mid-level ridge to the north. Over
the next day or two, Lane is expected to reach the western periphery
of the ridge, and into an area of relatively light steering flow.
This is expected to allow the cyclone to gain latitude as its
forward speed diminishes. In this scenario, Lane will begin to make
a gradual turn to the west-northwest on Wednesday, with a more
decided turn toward the northwest on Thursday. After this point, the
track and intensity forecast become increasingly uncertain, as a
bulk of the model guidance is depicting interaction between Lane and
the terrain of the islands. This interaction then leads to a
weakened Lane increasingly being steered by the low-level trade wind
flow. The updated track forecast is essentially an update of the
previous official forecast, and lies very close to the multi-model
consensus HCCA.
Water temperatures along the forecast track will be sufficiently
warm to support a major hurricane, and thus any significant
weakening before Lane draws closer to the Hawaiian Islands will
likely be due to shear. In the short-term, shear is expected to
remain light, and subtle intensity fluctuations associated with
inner-core dynamics will likely lead to little overall change in
intensity. By 72 hours, the forecast anticipates an increase in
shear as Lane lies between the ridge to the east and a trough
aloft to the northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands. The updated
intensity forecast is close to the previous, and although it is on
the higher end of the guidance envelope, it closely follows
the trends presented by the multi-model consensus IVCN.
In addition to an increasing number of storm penetrations by the
Hurricane Hunters of the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance, the NOAA G-IV
will once again be sampling the larger scale environment to help
forecast models better initialize. The NOAA P-3 mission slated for
this morning has been scrapped as the aircraft needs to be examined
after encountering strong turbulence last night.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Lane is forecast to move dangerously close to the main Hawaiian
Islands as a hurricane later this week, potentially bringing
damaging winds and life-threatening flash flooding from heavy
rainfall. As Lane is expected to be slow-moving as it nears the
islands, it will produce large and damaging surf, mainly along
exposed south and west facing shores. A Hurricane Watch has been
issued for Hawaii and Maui counties, and additional Tropical
Storm or Hurricane Watches may be required later today or tonight.
2. It is much too early to confidently determine which, if any, of
the main Hawaiian Islands will be directly impacted by Lane. Even
if the center of Lane were to remain offshore, it is important to
remember that impacts from a hurricane can extend well away from
the center. Interests throughout Hawaii are urged to closely
monitor the progress of Lane the next couple of days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/1500Z 14.1N 152.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 14.4N 153.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 15.0N 154.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 15.9N 155.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 17.0N 156.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 19.7N 157.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 21.5N 159.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 21.5N 163.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
Forecaster Birchard
