CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

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Alyono
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#341 Postby Alyono » Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:10 pm

major south shift for ukmet

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 19.08.2018

HURRICANE LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 12.4N 140.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.08.2018 0 12.4N 140.6W 976 79
1200UTC 19.08.2018 12 12.4N 142.8W 984 69
0000UTC 20.08.2018 24 12.6N 144.8W 981 62
1200UTC 20.08.2018 36 12.8N 146.7W 981 61
0000UTC 21.08.2018 48 12.8N 148.4W 979 60
1200UTC 21.08.2018 60 12.8N 150.2W 979 61
0000UTC 22.08.2018 72 13.1N 152.1W 980 62
1200UTC 22.08.2018 84 13.5N 154.2W 978 67
0000UTC 23.08.2018 96 14.0N 156.3W 977 64
1200UTC 23.08.2018 108 14.8N 158.4W 977 63
0000UTC 24.08.2018 120 15.8N 160.2W 977 63
1200UTC 24.08.2018 132 16.9N 161.5W 969 71
0000UTC 25.08.2018 144 18.0N 162.5W 972 68
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Kingarabian
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#342 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:13 pm

Bombing out:

Image
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#343 Postby ncapps » Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:13 pm

This run is really going all out. Just sits off BI almost stationary and strengthens. Ohau landfall it looks like...tomorrow night it will be BI.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#344 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:17 pm

Image

Through day six. Headed to Maui. This run is lost.
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:20 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#345 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:18 pm

Alyono wrote:major south shift for ukmet

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 19.08.2018

HURRICANE LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 12.4N 140.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.08.2018 0 12.4N 140.6W 976 79
1200UTC 19.08.2018 12 12.4N 142.8W 984 69
0000UTC 20.08.2018 24 12.6N 144.8W 981 62
1200UTC 20.08.2018 36 12.8N 146.7W 981 61
0000UTC 21.08.2018 48 12.8N 148.4W 979 60
1200UTC 21.08.2018 60 12.8N 150.2W 979 61
0000UTC 22.08.2018 72 13.1N 152.1W 980 62
1200UTC 22.08.2018 84 13.5N 154.2W 978 67
0000UTC 23.08.2018 96 14.0N 156.3W 977 64
1200UTC 23.08.2018 108 14.8N 158.4W 977 63
0000UTC 24.08.2018 120 15.8N 160.2W 977 63
1200UTC 24.08.2018 132 16.9N 161.5W 969 71
0000UTC 25.08.2018 144 18.0N 162.5W 972 68


Certainly good news. 162.5W keeps this well offshore barring any NE motion.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#346 Postby ncapps » Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:22 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Alyono wrote:major south shift for ukmet

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 19.08.2018

HURRICANE LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 12.4N 140.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.08.2018 0 12.4N 140.6W 976 79
1200UTC 19.08.2018 12 12.4N 142.8W 984 69
0000UTC 20.08.2018 24 12.6N 144.8W 981 62
1200UTC 20.08.2018 36 12.8N 146.7W 981 61
0000UTC 21.08.2018 48 12.8N 148.4W 979 60
1200UTC 21.08.2018 60 12.8N 150.2W 979 61
0000UTC 22.08.2018 72 13.1N 152.1W 980 62
1200UTC 22.08.2018 84 13.5N 154.2W 978 67
0000UTC 23.08.2018 96 14.0N 156.3W 977 64
1200UTC 23.08.2018 108 14.8N 158.4W 977 63
0000UTC 24.08.2018 120 15.8N 160.2W 977 63
1200UTC 24.08.2018 132 16.9N 161.5W 969 71
0000UTC 25.08.2018 144 18.0N 162.5W 972 68


Certainly good news. 162.5W keeps this well offshore barring any NE motion.



Good news for sure, this GFS run muddies things a bit. I guess it comes down to speed in the end, which should become fairly evident by Monday or so.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#347 Postby Alyono » Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:22 pm

Maui landfall? Really GFS?
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#348 Postby ncapps » Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:23 pm

Alyono wrote:Maui landfall? Really GFS?


I'm pretty sure it's going to make a secondary landfall on BI. It's that crazy of a run.

I cant wait to see the ensembles...
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#349 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:25 pm

Here is where the storm was expected to be at 0z:

24H 19/0000Z 12.7N 140.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 13.1N 140.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 12.9N 140.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 13.8N 138.6W 80 KT 90 MPH

ATCF point at 0z was 12.6N 140.3W so further south and a little further east. So a hair slower on balance so far.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#350 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:29 pm

ncapps wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
Alyono wrote:major south shift for ukmet

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 19.08.2018

HURRICANE LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 12.4N 140.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.08.2018 0 12.4N 140.6W 976 79
1200UTC 19.08.2018 12 12.4N 142.8W 984 69
0000UTC 20.08.2018 24 12.6N 144.8W 981 62
1200UTC 20.08.2018 36 12.8N 146.7W 981 61
0000UTC 21.08.2018 48 12.8N 148.4W 979 60
1200UTC 21.08.2018 60 12.8N 150.2W 979 61
0000UTC 22.08.2018 72 13.1N 152.1W 980 62
1200UTC 22.08.2018 84 13.5N 154.2W 978 67
0000UTC 23.08.2018 96 14.0N 156.3W 977 64
1200UTC 23.08.2018 108 14.8N 158.4W 977 63
0000UTC 24.08.2018 120 15.8N 160.2W 977 63
1200UTC 24.08.2018 132 16.9N 161.5W 969 71
0000UTC 25.08.2018 144 18.0N 162.5W 972 68


Certainly good news. 162.5W keeps this well offshore barring any NE motion.



Good news for sure, this GFS run muddies things a bit. I guess it comes down to speed in the end, which should become fairly evident by Monday or so.


In terms of credibility UKMET > GFS.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#351 Postby Alyono » Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:30 pm

Canadian with a massive south shift as well

GFS can be given the zero weight that it deserves
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#352 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:30 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Here is where the storm was expected to be at 0z:

24H 19/0000Z 12.7N 140.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 13.1N 140.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 12.9N 140.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 13.8N 138.6W 80 KT 90 MPH

ATCF point at 0z was 12.6N 140.3W so further south and a little further east. So a hair slower on balance so far.


That means the GFS is not far off.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#353 Postby ncapps » Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:32 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Here is where the storm was expected to be at 0z:

24H 19/0000Z 12.7N 140.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 13.1N 140.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 12.9N 140.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 13.8N 138.6W 80 KT 90 MPH

ATCF point at 0z was 12.6N 140.3W so further south and a little further east. So a hair slower on balance so far.


That means the GFS is not far off.


the speed difference is not pronounced as its progged to be in a couple days
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#354 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:36 pm

ncapps wrote:
Alyono wrote:Maui landfall? Really GFS?


I'm pretty sure it's going to make a secondary landfall on BI. It's that crazy of a run.

I cant wait to see the ensembles...


Ensembles will be over Hawaii for sure. I was expecting to see it shift west away from Kauai but a hit on Maui is nuts.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#355 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:38 pm

FV3 GFS is coming in a hair slower and a bit stronger.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#356 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:52 pm

Image

Not sure if still a major.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#357 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:52 pm

It has taken a beating tonight!

Image
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#358 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 19, 2018 12:01 am

Looking at the GFS they've been moving the storm too far northeast with a few exceptions so far. ECMWF has been closer to the reverse.
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#359 Postby Alyono » Sun Aug 19, 2018 12:02 am

Yellow Evan wrote:Image

Not sure if still a major.


not sure if its a major? That microwave is not even consistent with a hurricane signature. Of course, it will take time for the winds to die down. But this could be a low end cat 2 or a strong cat 1 now
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Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#360 Postby ncapps » Sun Aug 19, 2018 12:03 am

Image

Will be entering even stronger shear soon.
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