CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

looks like there may be about 20 kts of mid level shear as there are mid level clouds undercutting the outflow pattern

We will have an exposed center by morning if this does not decrease

[Yellow Evan]

Mid-level shear here actually isn't too bad.

[Alyono]

looks like 10-15 kts. Still too high. Needs to wobble north if this wants to hang on

I was not expecting this today. I was expecting this to happen late Monday or early Tuesday like HMON/HWRF were saying

[Kingarabian]

Hold up, the 00z UKMET still recurves this. Just recurves this west of Kauai. Its solution is closer to the GFS vs. the Euro.

[Kingarabian]

looks like there may be about 20 kts of mid level shear as there are mid level clouds undercutting the outflow pattern

We will have an exposed center by morning if this does not decrease

GFS weakens this to 985mb in 12 hours. So a very bad looking Lane tomorrow morning wouldnt be shocking.

[Yellow Evan]

Looking at past UKMET runs they've been too fast. HWRF running so far has this slower than last run but they've moved the storm too slowly and too far north thus far.

[Alyono]

FV3 GFS has this dying south of Hawaii, where GFS has it blowing up

Only the two worst models, the NAVGEM and GFS have any type of threat to the islands

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro finally running. Initializes much better.

[Kingarabian]

Euro run having issues? It's late.

SAB down to 4.5/5.5.

[Yellow Evan]

ECMWF much faster through 24 hours already.

[Kingarabian]

ECMWF much faster through 24 hours already.

00z Euro recurving...

[Yellow Evan]

Through day 6. Further north yes but still keeps the inner core FAR offshore.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* LANE EP142018 08/19/18 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 110 104 98 94 90 83 79 76 72 74 74 74 76
V (KT) LAND 110 104 98 94 90 83 79 76 72 74 74 74 76
V (KT) LGEM 110 104 98 93 89 84 82 80 78 75 73 72 71
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 14 16 12 9 13 12 8 9 9 2 6 5 3
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 -1 -2 -5 -2 0 -2 2 3 -2 -3 5
SHEAR DIR 276 283 275 277 280 297 254 267 247 213 239 261 249
SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.3
POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 141 142 143 142 140 140 140 141 139 136 136
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 8
700-500 MB RH 62 60 62 63 62 59 57 56 60 64 67 67 65
MODEL VTX (KT) 17 15 14 15 16 16 18 20 19 22 23 24 23
850 MB ENV VOR -14 -8 5 22 25 30 32 41 50 61 76 69 61
200 MB DIV 58 13 8 21 26 43 42 32 51 64 62 71 106
700-850 TADV -7 -4 -2 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 1 1 3
LAND (KM) 1594 1462 1333 1241 1150 977 841 712 596 487 422 446 519
LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.1 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.6 15.2 15.8 16.4
LONG(DEG W) 141.6 142.9 144.1 145.0 146.0 147.9 149.6 151.3 152.9 154.7 156.5 158.3 159.9
STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 10 9 10 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 8
HEAT CONTENT 15 21 18 19 24 18 16 17 22 39 22 19 30

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -16. -24. -31. -37. -41. -44. -44.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -8. -4. 0. 4. 7. 7. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. -20. -20.
PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 3. 8. 9. 9. 9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -16. -20. -27. -31. -34. -38. -36. -36. -36. -34.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 12.8 141.6

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/19/18 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.38 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.17 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.31 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.29 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 456.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.33 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.44 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.8% 1.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.9% 2.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/19/18 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX

[Alyono]

I do not understand how CPHC can get 110 kts for this system. What are they looking at?

[Kingarabian]

Ridge builds back in and pushes it west.

However, this Euro run proves that the GFS solution of recurving HAS merit. Ignoring where each model takes Lane, the synoptic pattern now calls for a trough to pick up Lane AND the models are hinting at conducive upper level conditions up to 17-18N.

[Kingarabian]

This is likely a Cat.2 hurricane now.



Euro shows shear dropping within 24 hours.

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 AUG 2018 Time : 080000 UTC
Lat : 13:03:05 N Lon : 142:08:25 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 957.3mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 5.6 5.6

Regardless of how much this has weakened, it's still coming in stronger than what the GFS is modeling out.

[Alyono]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 AUG 2018 Time : 080000 UTC
Lat : 13:03:05 N Lon : 142:08:25 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 957.3mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 5.6 5.6

Regardless of how much this has weakened, it's still coming in stronger than what the GFS is modeling out.

the eye is appearing once again. Glad I kept this at 100 kts. I nearly went 95 kts

[Alyono]

I also do not know why CPHC is using SHIPS for the intensity of Lane. It went with steady weakening, not the likely weakening, followed by reintensification that every dynamical model shows

[Mauistorms]

This is truly fascinating. Trying so hard to learn how to read these charts but very appreciative for the info and banter. Mahalo for keeping us in the loop.