CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Euro gonna be interesting.

[Dylan]

Category 5 Hurricane Lane:

[Sciencerocks]

Okay so everyone seems to be saying that Hawaii’s building codes are not built with hurricanes in mind. However I don’t feel like Houston’s buildings are built particularly hurricane resistant either, especially compared to Florida’s.
...Are Hawaii’s buildings really that much more vulnerable, or is it more the fact that it’s a state made of isolated islands?

Many of Hawaii's structures cannot survive a cat 1. Iselle caused major damage to many as a tropical storm

They are also many thousands of miles away from any land. You're just not going to send in supply trucks etc and help that easily should infrastructure fail.

If this comes in as a cat4 it'll be a lot like maria. sadly,

[OahuWahine]

What building materials are Hawaiian houses made of? I guess I've always assumed they were concrete block structures but...obviously not. Tropical depression Darby causing significant damage seems unbelievable though! Of course it bears remembering that windspeeds increase with elevation and advisories are written for sealevel windspeeds.

Wood, mostly, especially the older construction. My back neighbor has a tin corrugated roof.

[somethingfunny]

What building materials are Hawaiian houses made of? I guess I've always assumed they were concrete block structures but...obviously not. Tropical depression Darby causing significant damage seems unbelievable though! Of course it bears remembering that windspeeds increase with elevation and advisories are written for sealevel windspeeds.

Wood, mostly, especially the older construction. My back neighbor has a tin corrugated roof.

I hope you aren't downwind of that tin roof... Did you get boarded up, did your neighbors?

[NotoSans]

Central pressure has begun to rise as per latest center sonde.

[Kingarabian]

Central pressure has begun to rise as per latest center sonde.

Gonna need this to start weakening quicker than this.

[Aric Dunn]

00z HWRF putting 120kt hurricane eyewall on the western coast of the big Island.... no good..

and then sending a 105kt hurricane to Oahu ...

Do you have a graphic? Cant see that on tropical tidbits.

disregard that post by Aric. It is not accurate.

HWRF has a cat 1 into Maui and a TS into Oahu

why disregard ? not to get into any major details. but keep in mind elevation on top of data.

there is a linear relationship with the 850 mb forecast( or initialized) winds for the HWRF/dynamical models vs recon and the NHC official intensities for tropical cyclones that are roughly 85kt and above.

essentially with intense hurricanes looking at the 10m winds on the HWRF is far less accurate than the 850mb.

the 850mb winds of the HWRF, in this case, more accurately represent the intensity forecast than the 10m level.

So looking at the HWRF 850mb and the 10m winds

what I said is quite reasonable ...

on top of that, in this case, the fact that a large portion of the population is 50 plus feet above sea level adds to the reasoning of following the 850mb forecast winds and not the 10m.

or better yet.. doing a blend of the two if you like.


at 42 hours right as the eyewall is on the coast of the big island..

hwrf 850mb is 119kts

10m is 105kts.

[Kingarabian]

Do you have a graphic? Cant see that on tropical tidbits.

disregard that post by Aric. It is not accurate.

HWRF has a cat 1 into Maui and a TS into Oahu

why disregard ? not to get into any major details. but keep in mind elevation on top of data.

there is a linear relationship with the 850 mb forecast( or initialized) winds for the HWRF/dynamical models vs recon and the NHC official intensities for tropical cyclones that are roughly 85kt and above.

essentially with intense hurricanes looking at the 10m winds on the HWRF is far less accurate than the 850mb.

the 850mb winds of the HWRF, in this case, more accurately represent the intensity forecast than the 10m level.

So looking at the HWRF 850mb and the 10m winds

what I said is quite reasonable ...

on top of that, in this case, the fact that a large portion of the population is 50 plus feet above sea level adds to the reasoning of following the 850mb forecast winds and not the 10m.

or better yet.. doing a blend of the two if you like.


at 42 hours right as the eyewall is on the coast of the big island..

hwrf 850mb is 119kts

10m is 105kts.

Thank you for the explanation.

Damn, just dropping the knowledge on us like that for free?

[Kingarabian]

Holy crap the models cant initialize anything correctly.

[StormChaser75]

Here is 2 images of Lane from about 1 hour and 30 mins ago.

[OahuWahine]

What building materials are Hawaiian houses made of? I guess I've always assumed they were concrete block structures but...obviously not. Tropical depression Darby causing significant damage seems unbelievable though! Of course it bears remembering that windspeeds increase with elevation and advisories are written for sealevel windspeeds.

Wood, mostly, especially the older construction. My back neighbor has a tin corrugated roof.

I hope you aren't downwind of that tin roof... Did you get boarded up, did your neighbors?

I am downwind of him, unfortunately. No one is boarding up, at least not in my area. Went to Home Depot for plywood and the worker that helped me acted like I had a third eye. They're pushing the whole "taping the windows" thing. There was an entire table dedicated to masking and duct tape as soon as you walk in.

[Kingarabian]

Wood, mostly, especially the older construction. My back neighbor has a tin corrugated roof.

I hope you aren't downwind of that tin roof... Did you get boarded up, did your neighbors?

I am downwind of him, unfortunately. No one is boarding up, at least not in my area. Went to Home Depot for plywood and the worker that helped me acted like I had a third eye. They're pushing the whole "taping the windows" thing. There was an entire table dedicated to masking and duct tape as soon as you walk in.

No one is boarding their houses next to me. All of us have tin metal roofs lmao.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro 00-48:

[Aric Dunn]

I hope you aren't downwind of that tin roof... Did you get boarded up, did your neighbors?

I am downwind of him, unfortunately. No one is boarding up, at least not in my area. Went to Home Depot for plywood and the worker that helped me acted like I had a third eye. They're pushing the whole "taping the windows" thing. There was an entire table dedicated to masking and duct tape as soon as you walk in.

No one is boarding their houses next to me. All of us have tin metal roofs lmao.

lol yeah... maybe just go buy one of those giant safety balls that can withstand anything and are waterproof and hop in it and watch

[AJC3]

Do you have a graphic? Cant see that on tropical tidbits.

disregard that post by Aric. It is not accurate.

HWRF has a cat 1 into Maui and a TS into Oahu

why disregard ? not to get into any major details. but keep in mind elevation on top of data.

there is a linear relationship with the 850 mb forecast( or initialized) winds for the HWRF/dynamical models vs recon and the NHC official intensities for tropical cyclones that are roughly 85kt and above.

essentially with intense hurricanes looking at the 10m winds on the HWRF is far less accurate than the 850mb.

the 850mb winds of the HWRF, in this case, more accurately represent the intensity forecast than the 10m level.

So looking at the HWRF 850mb and the 10m winds

what I said is quite reasonable ...

on top of that, in this case, the fact that a large portion of the population is 50 plus feet above sea level adds to the reasoning of following the 850mb forecast winds and not the 10m.

or better yet.. doing a blend of the two if you like.


at 42 hours right as the eyewall is on the coast of the big island..

hwrf 850mb is 119kts

10m is 105kts.

While what you say is true here, you needed to make the distinction about exposures at elevation in your OP. That's why it was moved. Hurricane strength/category is defined by the 10m MSW on an over-water exposure, as opposed to wind speeds at higher elevations, which commonly occur at elevated coastal locations such as high-rise buildings and high terrain.

[OahuWahine]

I hope you aren't downwind of that tin roof... Did you get boarded up, did your neighbors?

I am downwind of him, unfortunately. No one is boarding up, at least not in my area. Went to Home Depot for plywood and the worker that helped me acted like I had a third eye. They're pushing the whole "taping the windows" thing. There was an entire table dedicated to masking and duct tape as soon as you walk in.

No one is boarding their houses next to me. All of us have tin metal roofs lmao.

Are you planning on staying? No one I talked to today believes it will hit us. If one more person spouted off the thing about it not hitting because it doesn't have a Hawaiian name, I was going to lose my s%!t.

[Mauistorms]

Here in Upcountry Maui we are in a early 80's cinderblock construction with lots of add ons..
Our roof is original and leaks often with lots of wet rot etc. louvered windows in every room and a tiny hallway. Not sure what to do as I was in Iniki in 92 and feel a little ptsd with this coming after spending hours under a mattress in a carport for that one. Schools out tomorrow here so everyone (my 3 teenagers) thinks its a "hurrication"...

[Aric Dunn]

disregard that post by Aric. It is not accurate.

HWRF has a cat 1 into Maui and a TS into Oahu

why disregard ? not to get into any major details. but keep in mind elevation on top of data.

there is a linear relationship with the 850 mb forecast( or initialized) winds for the HWRF/dynamical models vs recon and the NHC official intensities for tropical cyclones that are roughly 85kt and above.

essentially with intense hurricanes looking at the 10m winds on the HWRF is far less accurate than the 850mb.

the 850mb winds of the HWRF, in this case, more accurately represent the intensity forecast than the 10m level.

So looking at the HWRF 850mb and the 10m winds

what I said is quite reasonable ...

on top of that, in this case, the fact that a large portion of the population is 50 plus feet above sea level adds to the reasoning of following the 850mb forecast winds and not the 10m.

or better yet.. doing a blend of the two if you like.


at 42 hours right as the eyewall is on the coast of the big island..

hwrf 850mb is 119kts

10m is 105kts.

While what you say is true here, you needed to make the distinction about exposures at elevation in your OP. That's why it was moved. Hurricane strength/category is defined by the 10m MSW on an over-water exposure, as opposed to wind speeds at higher elevations, which commonly occur at elevated coastal locations such as high-rise buildings and high terrain.

Fair enough I should have mentioned that in the original post.

however,( and this is the point I was trying to make I guess I was too vague) the relationship of the official advisory intensities vs the 850mb HWRF( and others) over the past couple season ( so far ) show that the 850mb winds of the HWRF (for TC's over 85kts) forecast have been more in line with the official intensities based off of recon data than the 10m winds despite the "definition"

I have yet to check if the same applies to satellite-derived intensities.

[Alyono]

for what its worth, the cmc and navgem shifted well west. 0Z EC similar to 12Z