CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[Chris90]

It's disheartening to hear that people aren't boarding up and taking it seriously. I know it has been 26 years since Iniki, but you would think the memory and the stories would be enough for people to be taking this threat a bit more seriously. In situations like these it is best to plan and prepare for the worst and hope for the best possible outcome.

I hope the theory that it doesn't have a Hawaiian name so therefore it won't make a hit pans out, but I wouldn't be counting on it.

[OahuWahine]

Here in Upcountry Maui we are in a early 80's cinderblock construction with lots of add ons..
Our roof is original and leaks often with lots of wet rot etc. louvered windows in every room and a tiny hallway. Not sure what to do as I was in Iniki in 92 and feel a little ptsd with this coming after spending hours under a mattress in a carport for that one. Schools out tomorrow here so everyone (my 3 teenagers) thinks its a "hurrication"...

I wish they would cancel school for Oahu as well. I could use my kids help getting prepared. Our yard is literally covered with things that'll have to be picked up and stored. All my kids seem to be worried about is the power going out and not being able to access the internet

[HurricaneRyan]

The daughter of the lady I walk dogs for lives in Hawaii...I don't know which island but with how bad this forecast looks i'm really worried for her safety.

[StormChaser75]

LANE STRENGTHENS TO CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE
800 PM HST Tue Aug 21 2018
Location: 14.5N 154.1W
Maximum sustained winds: 160 MPH
Moving: WNW at 9 MPH
Minimum pressure: 922 MB

Intermediate update.

[Alyono]

Here in Upcountry Maui we are in a early 80's cinderblock construction with lots of add ons..
Our roof is original and leaks often with lots of wet rot etc. louvered windows in every room and a tiny hallway. Not sure what to do as I was in Iniki in 92 and feel a little ptsd with this coming after spending hours under a mattress in a carport for that one. Schools out tomorrow here so everyone (my 3 teenagers) thinks its a "hurrication"...

I wish they would cancel school for Oahu as well. I could use my kids help getting prepared. Our yard is literally covered with things that'll have to be picked up and stored. All my kids seem to be worried about is the power going out and not being able to access the internet

can you not simply keep your kids home to help you? Not the end of the world if they miss one of the first school days of the year

[Kingarabian]

for what its worth, the cmc and navgem shifted well west. 0Z EC similar to 12Z

00z Euro looks like a Cat.1 landfall over Kauai. CMC and Navy west of Kauai.

00z GFS big island hit, UKMET is east as well.

Split of these solutions would put Maui or Oahu under the gun.

[Twisted-core]

https://imgur.com/9ZchK5x

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1032148094635466753




Maybe the 06z GFS will finally cave west?

I mean its 48 hours out man. We're squeezed of time.

[Alyono]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1032148094635466753




Maybe the 06z GFS will finally cave west?

I mean its 48 hours out man. We're squeezed of time.

last time we had this short term divergence was debby 2012. Thankfully, ec was an epic fail. I missed a hurricane and I met my wife

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWx/status/1032160931453775873

[Twisted-core]

https://imgur.com/WOgsY4f

no part of the destructive core contacts land on the run

[Kingarabian]

Looks like pressure is up to 927mb this pass.

[OahuWahine]

Here in Upcountry Maui we are in a early 80's cinderblock construction with lots of add ons..
Our roof is original and leaks often with lots of wet rot etc. louvered windows in every room and a tiny hallway. Not sure what to do as I was in Iniki in 92 and feel a little ptsd with this coming after spending hours under a mattress in a carport for that one. Schools out tomorrow here so everyone (my 3 teenagers) thinks its a "hurrication"...

I wish they would cancel school for Oahu as well. I could use my kids help getting prepared. Our yard is literally covered with things that'll have to be picked up and stored. All my kids seem to be worried about is the power going out and not being able to access the internet

can you not simply keep your kids home to help you? Not the end of the world if they miss one of the first school days of the year

I could but they were sick last week so they already missed a couple days. I will if I need to, though.

[Aric Dunn]

THe eye is rapidly contracting.. maybe a ERC starting ?

[Mauistorms]

THe eye is rapidly contracting.. maybe a ERC starting ?

Is ERC the thing where the outer ring becomes the eye and then eventually leads to further intensification?

[Aric Dunn]

THe eye is rapidly contracting.. maybe a ERC starting ?

Is ERC the thing where the outer ring becomes the eye and then eventually leads to further intensification?

yes, but does not mean it will be any stronger than it currently is.. during an ERC it typically weakens slightly then regains strength.

though there is no radar or microwave data to support this idea yet. recon is also not really showing a second wind max in the data..

the eye is contracting and pressure is going up.

so its either the start of an ERC or shear or some other dynamical process.

[Kingarabian]

We have to hope the models shift their track west of Kauai now to avoid a hit on the islands and not just rely on the models solution of a weakening Lane getting caught in the low level flow and moving west.

I just looked at the 200mb wind on the 00z Euro, and compared to what it was showing over the weekend, there's significantly less or weaker southwesterlies in association with the jet coming across the Hawaiian islands.

00z Euro Aug18 forecast for Aug23:


00z Euro Aug21 forecast for Aug23:

[Kingarabian]

THe eye is rapidly contracting.. maybe a ERC starting ?

Is ERC the thing where the outer ring becomes the eye and then eventually leads to further intensification?

yes, but does not mean it will be any stronger than it currently is.. during an ERC it typically weakens slightly then regains strength.

though there is no radar or microwave data to support this idea yet. recon is also not really showing a second wind max in the data..

the eye is contracting and pressure is going up.

so its either the start of an ERC or shear or some other dynamical process.

Looks like wind speeds still support a Cat.5.

[Aric Dunn]

Is ERC the thing where the outer ring becomes the eye and then eventually leads to further intensification?

yes, but does not mean it will be any stronger than it currently is.. during an ERC it typically weakens slightly then regains strength.

though there is no radar or microwave data to support this idea yet. recon is also not really showing a second wind max in the data..

the eye is contracting and pressure is going up.

so its either the start of an ERC or shear or some other dynamical process.

Looks like wind speeds still support a Cat.5.

Yep. there are a lot of variables coming into play the next 48 hours..

most notably the turbulent flow off of the big island and how much of an effect on Lane it will have.

[Twisted-core]

https://imgur.com/5wrXjhm


https://imgur.com/InfQEir



https://imgur.com/SB2wg8U