CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
ncapps
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 105
Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2018 7:53 am

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#441 Postby ncapps » Sun Aug 19, 2018 10:45 pm

Alot more south through 48hrs, almost looks like its moving WNW as opposed to NW when comparing 12z, 6z, etc
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15954
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:
Contact Yellow Evan

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#442 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 19, 2018 10:46 pm

GFS has a weird southerly dive hours 0-12 that I'm not sure I fully buy.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15954
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:
Contact Yellow Evan

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#443 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 19, 2018 10:47 pm

Image

Through hour 60. Slowing down.
0 likes   
Top
Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#444 Postby Alyono » Sun Aug 19, 2018 10:53 pm

looks like the GFS is still going to hit the Big Island though
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15439
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#445 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 19, 2018 10:54 pm

Alyono wrote:looks like the GFS is still going to hit the Big Island though

TUTT looks situated a bit higher too.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15439
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#446 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 19, 2018 10:55 pm

Alyono, did the UKMET come in yet?
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15954
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:
Contact Yellow Evan

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#447 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 19, 2018 10:58 pm

Image

Hour 90. Being deflected by the high terrain. Basically almost in the same spot as the 18z run.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15954
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:
Contact Yellow Evan

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#448 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 19, 2018 11:03 pm

Image

Landfall at hour 108.
0 likes   
Top
ncapps
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 105
Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2018 7:53 am

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#449 Postby ncapps » Sun Aug 19, 2018 11:03 pm

The GFS sure has been consistent...
0 likes   
Top
Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#450 Postby Alyono » Sun Aug 19, 2018 11:07 pm

UKMET... LANDFALL KAUAI

WTNT82 EGRR 200403

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 20.08.2018

HURRICANE LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 145.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.08.2018 0 13.3N 145.2W 989 57
1200UTC 20.08.2018 12 13.6N 147.4W 986 59
0000UTC 21.08.2018 24 13.6N 149.1W 986 54
1200UTC 21.08.2018 36 13.9N 150.9W 987 48
0000UTC 22.08.2018 48 14.2N 152.8W 988 49
1200UTC 22.08.2018 60 14.7N 154.4W 987 49
0000UTC 23.08.2018 72 15.4N 156.1W 986 55
1200UTC 23.08.2018 84 16.7N 157.7W 984 57
0000UTC 24.08.2018 96 18.1N 158.9W 979 59
1200UTC 24.08.2018 108 19.7N 159.8W 977 66
0000UTC 25.08.2018 120 21.1N 160.2W 978 64
1200UTC 25.08.2018 132 21.8N 160.8W 986 62
0000UTC 26.08.2018 144 21.7N 161.8W 995 50
2 likes   
Top
Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#451 Postby Alyono » Sun Aug 19, 2018 11:09 pm

the eye may JUST miss west
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15439
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#452 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 19, 2018 11:10 pm

DAMN.
1 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15954
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:
Contact Yellow Evan

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#453 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 19, 2018 11:10 pm

UKMET further east and brings this very close to Kauai before veering west. Not good.

This just got serious.
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Sun Aug 19, 2018 11:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   
Top
ncapps
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 105
Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2018 7:53 am

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#454 Postby ncapps » Sun Aug 19, 2018 11:10 pm

Alyono wrote:UKMET... LANDFALL KAUAI

WTNT82 EGRR 200403

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 20.08.2018

HURRICANE LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 145.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.08.2018 0 13.3N 145.2W 989 57
1200UTC 20.08.2018 12 13.6N 147.4W 986 59
0000UTC 21.08.2018 24 13.6N 149.1W 986 54
1200UTC 21.08.2018 36 13.9N 150.9W 987 48
0000UTC 22.08.2018 48 14.2N 152.8W 988 49
1200UTC 22.08.2018 60 14.7N 154.4W 987 49
0000UTC 23.08.2018 72 15.4N 156.1W 986 55
1200UTC 23.08.2018 84 16.7N 157.7W 984 57
0000UTC 24.08.2018 96 18.1N 158.9W 979 59
1200UTC 24.08.2018 108 19.7N 159.8W 977 66
0000UTC 25.08.2018 120 21.1N 160.2W 978 64
1200UTC 25.08.2018 132 21.8N 160.8W 986 62
0000UTC 26.08.2018 144 21.7N 161.8W 995 50



This keeps it south of Kauai, no?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15954
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:
Contact Yellow Evan

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#455 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 19, 2018 11:11 pm

ncapps wrote:
Alyono wrote:UKMET... LANDFALL KAUAI

WTNT82 EGRR 200403

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 20.08.2018

HURRICANE LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 145.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.08.2018 0 13.3N 145.2W 989 57
1200UTC 20.08.2018 12 13.6N 147.4W 986 59
0000UTC 21.08.2018 24 13.6N 149.1W 986 54
1200UTC 21.08.2018 36 13.9N 150.9W 987 48
0000UTC 22.08.2018 48 14.2N 152.8W 988 49
1200UTC 22.08.2018 60 14.7N 154.4W 987 49
0000UTC 23.08.2018 72 15.4N 156.1W 986 55
1200UTC 23.08.2018 84 16.7N 157.7W 984 57
0000UTC 24.08.2018 96 18.1N 158.9W 979 59
1200UTC 24.08.2018 108 19.7N 159.8W 977 66
0000UTC 25.08.2018 120 21.1N 160.2W 978 64
1200UTC 25.08.2018 132 21.8N 160.8W 986 62
0000UTC 26.08.2018 144 21.7N 161.8W 995 50



This keeps it south of Kauai, no?


https://www.google.com/maps/place/21%C2 ... 1!4d-160.2

Barely but yes but way too close for comfort.
0 likes   
Top
ncapps
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 105
Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2018 7:53 am

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#456 Postby ncapps » Sun Aug 19, 2018 11:12 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
ncapps wrote:
Alyono wrote:UKMET... LANDFALL KAUAI

WTNT82 EGRR 200403

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 20.08.2018

HURRICANE LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 145.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.08.2018 0 13.3N 145.2W 989 57
1200UTC 20.08.2018 12 13.6N 147.4W 986 59
0000UTC 21.08.2018 24 13.6N 149.1W 986 54
1200UTC 21.08.2018 36 13.9N 150.9W 987 48
0000UTC 22.08.2018 48 14.2N 152.8W 988 49
1200UTC 22.08.2018 60 14.7N 154.4W 987 49
0000UTC 23.08.2018 72 15.4N 156.1W 986 55
1200UTC 23.08.2018 84 16.7N 157.7W 984 57
0000UTC 24.08.2018 96 18.1N 158.9W 979 59
1200UTC 24.08.2018 108 19.7N 159.8W 977 66
0000UTC 25.08.2018 120 21.1N 160.2W 978 64
1200UTC 25.08.2018 132 21.8N 160.8W 986 62
0000UTC 26.08.2018 144 21.7N 161.8W 995 50



This keeps it south of Kauai, no?


https://www.google.com/maps/place/21%C2 ... 1!4d-160.2

Barely but yes but way too close for comfort.




I'm supposed to fly in there the 24th. I think it's time to think about cancelling.



Also, devastating rain event on Maui

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15439
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#457 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 19, 2018 11:18 pm

ncapps wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
ncapps wrote:

This keeps it south of Kauai, no?


https://www.google.com/maps/place/21%C2 ... 1!4d-160.2

Barely but yes but way too close for comfort.




I'm supposed to fly in there the 24th. I think it's time to think about cancelling.



Also, devastating rain event on Maui

[img]https://www.weathernerds.org/models/v3.0/gfs/sessions/gfs_2018-08-20-00Z_138_21.869_202.393_19.886_205.419_Precip_72_highways_cities.png[img]


Yeah. Dont know what to say at this point.

Tomorrow I'll go over my hurricane plan and begin putting things in place.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15954
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:
Contact Yellow Evan

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#458 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 19, 2018 11:20 pm

Good news is this is still 4-5 days out. Plenty of time for the usual east shifts to take place.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Siker
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 904
Age: 27
Joined: Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:36 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#459 Postby Siker » Sun Aug 19, 2018 11:21 pm

Image
Last edited by Siker on Sun Aug 19, 2018 11:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15439
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane

#460 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 19, 2018 11:23 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Good news is this is still 4-5 days out. Plenty of time for the usual east shifts to take place.


By the time the east shifts finish up, it'll be over my roof.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 34 guests