CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

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CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 11, 2018 8:17 am

EP, 97, 2018081012, , BEST, 0, 83N, 1008W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS022, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022,
EP, 97, 2018081018, , BEST, 0, 83N, 1019W, 25, 0, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS022, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022,
EP, 97, 2018081100, , BEST, 0, 83N, 1029W, 25, 0, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS022, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022,
EP, 97, 2018081106, , BEST, 0, 84N, 1040W, 25, 0, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 100, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS022, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022,
EP, 97, 2018081112, , BEST, 0, 85N, 1050W, 25, 1009, WV, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 80, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022, SPAWNINVEST, ep752018 to ep972018,
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#2 Postby Ntxw » Sat Aug 11, 2018 10:07 am

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#3 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Aug 11, 2018 11:25 am

Ntxw wrote:Image

I love how clearly the SW winds south of the monsoon trough can be seen on the GOES-16 visible loops.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#4 Postby Ntxw » Sat Aug 11, 2018 11:28 am

1900hurricane wrote:
Ntxw wrote:https://images2.imgbox.com/da/e1/BQ4eTFhl_o.gif

I love how clearly the SW winds south of the monsoon trough can be seen on the GOES-16 visible loops.


Ever since you mentioned it in the EPAC thread awhile ago I have been watching it also. Tropicaltidbits has a great view of it and no wonder it's so easy for systems to spin up.

GOES-17 last I heard should be operational in September so hopefully just as good views!
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#5 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 11, 2018 12:42 pm

GFS doesn't develop this.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 11, 2018 12:51 pm

A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms centered a little
more than 600 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico is associated with
a tropical wave. This activity is beginning to show some signs of
organization. Only limited development is anticipated for the next
day or two, but a tropical depression could form by the middle of
next week while the disturbance moves westward well away from
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#7 Postby Ntxw » Sat Aug 11, 2018 1:43 pm

Euro develops this closer to 120W on a WNW track
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 11, 2018 2:05 pm

And is here on day 10.

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#9 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Aug 11, 2018 2:11 pm

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972018 08/11/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 38 41 46 52 58 62 65 69 70 70
V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 38 41 46 52 58 62 65 69 70 70
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 33 36 39 40 39 39 39 38
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 14 13 13 15 18 20 14 9 7 1 5 6 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 -4 -4 -3 0 3 5 9 4 4 10
SHEAR DIR 38 48 50 68 80 97 124 133 166 119 340 332 276
SST (C) 28.0 27.3 26.4 27.3 27.9 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.4 26.8
POT. INT. (KT) 146 138 129 138 143 147 145 144 142 143 140 138 131
200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -54.5 -55.1 -54.9 -54.7 -54.6 -54.4 -54.9 -55.2 -55.3 -55.1 -55.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4
700-500 MB RH 73 73 74 73 70 69 65 62 63 67 66 61 59
MODEL VTX (KT) 5 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 7
850 MB ENV VOR -26 -19 -20 -26 -25 -21 -24 -22 -24 -29 -30 -28 -23
200 MB DIV 99 120 120 88 55 9 -22 -28 -11 8 -2 -12 -25
700-850 TADV -5 -4 -3 0 1 6 3 2 1 0 -1 -1 -1
LAND (KM) 1154 1213 1275 1348 1401 1500 1610 1749 1899 2045 2194 2338 2488
LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.7 8.8 9.0 8.9 8.4 7.7 7.0 6.4 5.9 5.4
LONG(DEG W) 107.1 108.5 109.8 111.0 112.1 113.9 115.3 116.6 118.1 119.6 121.2 122.8 124.4
STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 10 8 7 8 8 8 8 9 8
HEAT CONTENT 30 30 29 19 13 14 16 17 19 26 26 12 24

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.4

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 17. 23. 28. 31. 33. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 7. 5.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 16. 21. 27. 33. 37. 40. 44. 45. 45.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.5 107.1

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972018 INVEST 08/11/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 5.8
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.28 2.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.21 1.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.68 4.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 4.2
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 -3.9
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 0.5

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.4% 18.8% 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 14.4% 0.0%
Logistic: 9.1% 39.8% 17.1% 10.9% 9.0% 8.2% 15.1% 40.8%
Bayesian: 0.4% 7.2% 3.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.2% 23.2% 13.0% 3.8% 3.0% 7.6% 10.0% 13.6%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972018 INVEST 08/11/18 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#10 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 11, 2018 3:44 pm

cycloneye wrote:And is here on day 10.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/u4ugoVd.png[img]


Yeah this needs to be watched closely. Especially if models are underdoing the ridging again.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#11 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 11, 2018 3:54 pm

UKMET develops this as well. We'll see what the 18z GFS has.
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2018 EPAC Season

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 11, 2018 5:27 pm

18z GFS develops it beggining on day 6.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 11, 2018 6:45 pm

A tropical wave located about 600 miles south of Manzanillo,
Mexico, continues to produce a large area of cloudiness, showers,
and thunderstorms. This system has shown some increase in
organization since yesterday, and additional development is
possible over the next couple of days. Upper-level winds appear to
become more conducive for development by the middle of next week,
and a tropical depression could form by that time while the wave
moves westward farther away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 11, 2018 7:54 pm

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972018 08/12/18 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 38 41 47 55 62 68 73 76 78 80
V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 38 41 47 55 62 68 73 76 78 80
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 40 44 47 50 52 53
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 11 12 16 18 19 16 12 7 4 4 5 7 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -4 -5 -2 -1 0 4 3 4 3 5 7
SHEAR DIR 54 61 70 82 87 89 89 88 95 15 30 5 47
SST (C) 28.2 27.3 27.0 27.8 28.1 28.0 28.2 28.1 28.4 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.5
POT. INT. (KT) 148 138 135 142 145 143 145 144 147 141 141 142 138
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.5 -55.0 -54.7 -54.2 -54.7 -54.2 -54.6 -54.6 -55.3 -55.1 -55.2 -55.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4
700-500 MB RH 73 73 74 72 72 72 67 69 70 75 69 69 65
MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -21 -23 -30 -26 -24 -22 -17 -16 -13 -16 -24 -22 -21
200 MB DIV 127 137 112 74 67 19 -19 -8 7 9 15 3 -7
700-850 TADV -1 0 1 3 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 -1 0
LAND (KM) 1117 1180 1231 1283 1318 1393 1499 1632 1746 1854 1961 2077 2196
LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.5 9.7 10.1 9.8 9.3 8.8 8.2 7.7 7.2 6.7
LONG(DEG W) 107.4 108.8 110.0 111.2 112.1 113.7 114.8 116.0 117.2 118.2 119.3 120.5 121.7
STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 9 6 6 7 6 6 6 7 7
HEAT CONTENT 30 28 23 18 17 16 13 16 18 19 22 29 26

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 17. 23. 28. 31. 33. 33.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 17. 16. 15.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 16. 22. 30. 37. 43. 48. 51. 53. 55.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.0 107.4

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972018 INVEST 08/12/18 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 5.9
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.24 1.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.20 1.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.72 4.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 4.6
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 -3.9
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 0.4

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.6% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 14.9% 15.7% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.1% 14.5% 5.1% 3.2% 2.6% 5.1% 20.3% 41.2%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
Consensus: 0.7% 12.8% 8.1% 1.1% 0.9% 6.7% 12.0% 13.8%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972018 INVEST 08/12/18 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#15 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 12, 2018 12:30 am

A tropical wave located about 700 miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to produce a large area of cloudiness,
showers, and a few thunderstorms. This system has shown some
increase in organization since yesterday, and additional development
is possible over the next couple of days. Upper-level winds appear
to become more conducive for development by the middle of next week,
and a tropical depression could form by that time while the wave
moves westward farther away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#16 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:07 am

A tropical wave located about 750 miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to produce a large area of
cloudiness and disorganized shower activity. Upper-level winds
are expected to become more conducive for development by the
middle of next week, and a tropical depression could form by
that time while the disturbance moves westward farther away
from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 12, 2018 11:36 am

12z GFS has zero development.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#18 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 12, 2018 12:03 pm

cycloneye wrote:12z GFS has zero development.


It hasn’t showed it for several runs now.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#19 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 12, 2018 12:38 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 12 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A tropical wave located about 850 miles south of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized
showers and a few thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are expected to
become more conducive for development by the middle of the week,
and a tropical depression could form around that time while the
disturbance moves westward farther away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 97E

#20 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 12, 2018 2:31 pm

Wow. 12z Euro is zzzzzzzzzzzz.
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