CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

FV3 GFS shifts east too.

[Ntxw]

What does Cat 5 mean for the path?

A stronger Lane, likely means more pole-ward movement. Very basic, simplistic view. Other factors at play also.

[Mauistorms]

What does Cat 5 mean for the path?

If there's going to be shear, it'll be able to maintain a stronger intensity.

Thank you! But does that effect the path? someone mentioned before that if it maintains it intensity then the trough would or wouldn't have more of an effect... can't find the thread..

[Kingarabian]

What does Cat 5 mean for the path?

If there's going to be shear, it'll be able to maintain a stronger intensity.

Thank you! But does that effect the path? someone mentioned before that if it maintains it intensity then the trough would or wouldn't have more of an effect... can't find the thread..

While Lane was in the EPAC, we were discussing possible scenarios and if it was possible for it to reach Hawaii. I think I said that a deeper system will track towards Hawaii, and Alyono said that Lane needs to be near Cat.5 for it to track close to the islands.

[Ntxw]

AF plane is also almost to Lane.

[Yellow Evan]

AF plane is also almost to Lane.

NOAA plane is about to make its second pass.

[Ntxw]

AF plane is also almost to Lane.

http://i65.tinypic.com/ekko7k.gif

NOAA plane is about to make its second pass.

NE quad this time.

[Alyono]

HWRF cat 3 into Oceanview

[Twisted-core]

https://imgur.com/JBaDlIf
nhc official track on the 0z. Yeah its lil old now but its like the ec no hit. They are the best guidance out there.


https://imgur.com/T6GARjl All 50 ens.



Until NHC or the EC determinic hits within the storms radius.

[Kingarabian]

Gonna see what the Euro shows in 15 minutes. Based on the outcome gonna head out to the Home Depot and start buying items.

[Alyono]

Gonna see what the Euro shows in 15 minutes. Based on the outcome gonna head out to the Home Depot and start buying items.

don't blindly follow a single model. That is like automatically shorting a developmental biotech company. Usually, that is right, but when wrong, you end up wiped out

[Alyono]

think something happened with the NOAA servers. Not only did the recon stop coming in, but the hurricane models also stopped coming in at the same time

[DioBrando]

https://imgur.com/JBaDlIf
nhc official track on the 0z. Yeah its lil old now but its like the ec no hit. They are the best guidance out there.


https://imgur.com/T6GARjl All 50 ens.



Until NHC or the EC determinic hits within the storms radius.

who is lidia?

[AutoPenalti]

Gonna see what the Euro shows in 15 minutes. Based on the outcome gonna head out to the Home Depot and start buying items.

don't blindly follow a single model. That is like automatically shorting a developmental biotech company. Usually, that is right, but when wrong, you end up wiped out

IMO, should go regardless just to be prepared.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro rolling:

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 AUG 2018 Time : 050000 UTC
Lat : 13:58:47 N Lon : 150:36:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 942.1mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km

Center Temp : +13.6C Cloud Region Temp : -68.6C

[Alyono]

that looks like a major east shift by the EC

[AutoPenalti]

MASSIVE shift east from the Euro

[Ntxw]

Things are starting to get more nervous now for Hawaii...

Watches are probably forthcoming.

[Kingarabian]