CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Nearing T7.0.

Stay up this may reach Cat.5 before the planes go back.

I mean I have to get up in five hours and I stayed up way too late next semester so...

[Kingarabian]

00z EPS is doom:

[Chris_in_Tampa]

NOAA:

URPN12 KWBC 210756
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP142018
A. 21/07:39:38Z
B. 13.93 deg N 151.09 deg W
C. NA
D. 951 mb
E. 125 deg 17 kt
F. CLOSED WALL
G. C12
H. 133 kt
I. 305 deg 7 nm 07:38:02Z
J. 038 deg 121 kt
K. 312 deg 10 nm 07:37:18Z
L. 140 kt
M. 352 deg 9 nm 07:43:53Z
N. 079 deg 132 kt
O. 348 deg 10 nm 07:44:15Z
P. 13 C / 2448 m
Q. 21 C / 2466 m
R. 13 C / NA
S. 12345 / NA
T. 0.01 / 1 nm
U. NOAA2 0714E LANE OB 24
PENETRATION AT 8000 FT
INBOUND AND OUTBOUND THRU NW QUAD
MAX FL WIND 132 KT 348 / 10 NM 07:44:15Z

[wxmann_91]

 https://twitter.com/wxmann/status/1031815186657640454

[Twisted-core]

Ouch ewa beach , looking v/bad the luck of near miss's looks be over..And more canes are on the way later thinks GFS.

[bob rulz]

Nearing T7.0.

Stay up this may reach Cat.5 before the planes go back.

I mean I have to get up in five hours and I stayed up way too late next semester so...

lol I'm in the same boat. I have to wake up in 5 hours for school (then work after!!), but I want to stay up for the next advisory....I probably will anyway.

Not to mention I actually have family on the Big Island. I usually follow these storms just out of pure meteorological interest.

Models really busted big time on intensity.

[Chris90]

Dropsonde in the NW eyewall reported 161kts 11mb above the surface with 139kts at the surface. Mean wind in lowest 500m was 148kts with a mean wind of 155kts in the lowest 150m. Combined with the SFMR value of 133kts, I'd say this is definitely 135kts. Might be going Cat 5.

[Cyclenall]

I mean I have to get up in five hours and I stayed up way too late next semester so...

Yep same here, I should've been sleeping 4 hours ago since I'm quite tired and now this. What did you mean at the end though about next semester?

NOAA:

URPN12 KWBC 210756
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP142018
A. 21/07:39:38Z
B. 13.93 deg N 151.09 deg W
C. NA
D. 951 mb
E. 125 deg 17 kt
F. CLOSED WALL
G. C12
H. 133 kt

...

Woah...and here I was thinking about 951 mb as a projection for Lane if he really deepened.

Are all those missing HDOBs going to be available from this round of recon?

[Cyclenall]

Dropsonde in the NW eyewall reported 161kts 11mb above the surface with 139kts at the surface. Mean wind in lowest 500m was 148kts with a mean wind of 155kts in the lowest 150m. Combined with the SFMR value of 133kts, I'd say this is definitely 135kts. Might be going Cat 5.

Oh boy that's incredible. Maybe its the middle of the night but why the lack of discussion around these findings? I'd say 135 too and yeah the unthinkable CAT5 status probably is near. Lane is becoming a donut with a large Irma eye; we see what intensity these things become when an eye like that pops. What is with this part of the Cpac and multiple hurricanes at similar strength in the zone weeks apart? Usually they fall apart around there not aspire to be the best.

[Kingarabian]

Dropsonde in the NW eyewall reported 161kts 11mb above the surface with 139kts at the surface. Mean wind in lowest 500m was 148kts with a mean wind of 155kts in the lowest 150m. Combined with the SFMR value of 133kts, I'd say this is definitely 135kts. Might be going Cat 5.

Oh boy that's incredible. Maybe its the middle of the night but why the lack of discussion around these findings? I'd say 135 too and yeah the unthinkable CAT5 status probably is near. Lane is becoming a donut with a large Irma eye; we see what intensity these things become when an eye like that pops. What is with this part of the Cpac and multiple hurricanes at similar strength in the zone weeks apart? Usually they fall apart around there not aspire to be the best.

Had to buy supplies. But I'll take care of the 06z GFS.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Woah...and here I was thinking about 951 mb as a projection for Lane if he really deepened.

Are all those missing HDOBs going to be available from this round of recon?

I was able to get NOAA obs from a site that wasn't designed to be directly used by the public, so I was able to add those to my site even though they are not yet in NHC's archive:
http://tropicaleastpacific.com/recon/re ... oduct=hdob
Use the links above on that page for sondes and vortex messages. And you can view them mapped too.

As for Air Force obs, I don't know where else to get those when they are not coming through. They have not been added to the NHC's recon archive. Due to technical issues of my site being on an older server, I can't connect to the NHC's recon archive automatically any more. (since they use a securer version of SSL) That means I have to manually add the missed obs rather than let my system do it automatically when they come into the NHC archive.

[Kingarabian]

HURRICANE LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142018
0900 UTC TUE AUG 21 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF HURRICANE LANE.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 151.2W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Dropsonde in the NW eyewall reported 161kts 11mb above the surface with 139kts at the surface. Mean wind in lowest 500m was 148kts with a mean wind of 155kts in the lowest 150m. Combined with the SFMR value of 133kts, I'd say this is definitely 135kts. Might be going Cat 5.

Link to that ob decoded:
http://tropicaleastpacific.com/recon/re ... 65-161-139

[Chris90]

This year has definitely been favorable for the CPAC. I haven't seen it used really as an analog overall, but this year is reminding me more and more of 1994 with this run of intense majors crossing into the CPAC from the EPAC, combined with a quieter Atlantic. Last year with that crazy Cape Verde season reminded me of 1995, so maybe we're just going back in time year by year...

Best of luck to you King with your preparations. Situation continues to look worse unfortunately. I've got all my fingers crossed that he lives up to his name and stays in his Lane and passes to the south out into the open ocean.
Please excuse my bad attempt at lame humor, just trying to provide a moment of levity in what is surely a stressful time for all of you on the islands.

[Chris90]

Woah...and here I was thinking about 951 mb as a projection for Lane if he really deepened.

Are all those missing HDOBs going to be available from this round of recon?

I was able to get NOAA obs from a site that wasn't designed to be directly used by the public, so I was able to add those to my site even though they are not yet in NHC's archive:
http://tropicaleastpacific.com/recon/re ... oduct=hdob
Use the links above on that page for sondes and vortex messages. And you can view them mapped too.

As for Air Force obs, I don't know where else to get those when they are not coming through. They have not been added to the NHC's recon archive. Due to technical issues of my site being on an older server, I can't connect to the NHC's recon archive automatically any more. (since they use a securer version of SSL) That means I have to manually add the missed obs rather than let my system do it automatically when they come into the NHC archive.

Thanks for all the work you do, your site is where I get all my info from, I find it to be the most user friendly. So for anyone who is looking for a place to follow along with the recon, I recommend using these links, it's where I go.

[Cyclenall]

Woah...and here I was thinking about 951 mb as a projection for Lane if he really deepened.

Are all those missing HDOBs going to be available from this round of recon?

I was able to get NOAA obs from a site that wasn't designed to be directly used by the public, so I was able to add those to my site even though they are not yet in NHC's archive:
http://tropicaleastpacific.com/recon/re ... oduct=hdob
Use the links above on that page for sondes and vortex messages. And you can view them mapped too.

As for Air Force obs, I don't know where else to get those when they are not coming through. They have not been added to the NHC's recon archive. Due to technical issues of my site being on an older server, I can't connect to the NHC's recon archive automatically any more. (since they use a securer version of SSL) That means I have to manually add the missed obs rather than let my system do it automatically when they come into the NHC archive.

Nice, thanks.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.

I take it that's a larger boost for gusts than normal due to the data.

[Blown Away]

Lane crossing 15N before 155W may be an early indicator the more easterly model group is correct.

[Kingarabian]

Which model from the 00z suite showed this solution CPHC?

[bob rulz]

I believe it's called "we don't want to believe that this will plow right into Hawaii" model. It's a mouthful I know, but I didn't name it.

[AutoPenalti]

Which model from the 00z suite showed this solution CPHC?

https://i.imgur.com/N1QPdxG.png

Are they siding with the Euro?