CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15439
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
Mauistorms wrote:What does Cat 5 mean for the path?
A stronger Lane, likely means more pole-ward movement. Very basic, simplistic view. Other factors at play also.
2 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
-
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 49
- Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2018 6:13 pm
Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
Kingarabian wrote:Mauistorms wrote:What does Cat 5 mean for the path?
If there's going to be shear, it'll be able to maintain a stronger intensity.
Thank you! But does that effect the path? someone mentioned before that if it maintains it intensity then the trough would or wouldn't have more of an effect... can't find the thread..
0 likes
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15439
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
Mauistorms wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Mauistorms wrote:What does Cat 5 mean for the path?
If there's going to be shear, it'll be able to maintain a stronger intensity.
Thank you! But does that effect the path? someone mentioned before that if it maintains it intensity then the trough would or wouldn't have more of an effect... can't find the thread..
While Lane was in the EPAC, we were discussing possible scenarios and if it was possible for it to reach Hawaii. I think I said that a deeper system will track towards Hawaii, and Alyono said that Lane needs to be near Cat.5 for it to track close to the islands.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
3 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
AF plane is also almost to Lane.
3 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15955
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
Ntxw wrote:AF plane is also almost to Lane.
NOAA plane is about to make its second pass.
0 likes
Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
Yellow Evan wrote:
NOAA plane is about to make its second pass.
NE quad this time.
1 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
-
- Category 1
- Posts: 252
- Joined: Fri May 11, 2018 9:20 pm
Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
https://imgur.com/JBaDlIf
nhc official track on the 0z. Yeah its lil old now but its like the ec no hit. They are the best guidance out there.
https://imgur.com/T6GARjl All 50 ens.
Until NHC or the EC determinic hits within the storms radius.
0 likes
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15439
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
Gonna see what the Euro shows in 15 minutes. Based on the outcome gonna head out to the Home Depot and start buying items.
1 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
Kingarabian wrote:Gonna see what the Euro shows in 15 minutes. Based on the outcome gonna head out to the Home Depot and start buying items.
don't blindly follow a single model. That is like automatically shorting a developmental biotech company. Usually, that is right, but when wrong, you end up wiped out
4 likes
Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
think something happened with the NOAA servers. Not only did the recon stop coming in, but the hurricane models also stopped coming in at the same time
Last edited by Alyono on Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
2 likes
Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
Twisted-core wrote:
https://imgur.com/JBaDlIf
nhc official track on the 0z. Yeah its lil old now but its like the ec no hit. They are the best guidance out there.
https://imgur.com/T6GARjl All 50 ens.
Until NHC or the EC determinic hits within the storms radius.
who is lidia?
0 likes
blonde stacey (xe/xem/xir)
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3949
- Age: 27
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
- Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
Alyono wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Gonna see what the Euro shows in 15 minutes. Based on the outcome gonna head out to the Home Depot and start buying items.
don't blindly follow a single model. That is like automatically shorting a developmental biotech company. Usually, that is right, but when wrong, you end up wiped out
IMO, should go regardless just to be prepared.
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15439
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15955
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 AUG 2018 Time : 050000 UTC
Lat : 13:58:47 N Lon : 150:36:00 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 942.1mb/122.2kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.5 6.5
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km
Center Temp : +13.6C Cloud Region Temp : -68.6C
Date : 21 AUG 2018 Time : 050000 UTC
Lat : 13:58:47 N Lon : 150:36:00 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 942.1mb/122.2kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.5 6.5
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km
Center Temp : +13.6C Cloud Region Temp : -68.6C
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3949
- Age: 27
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
- Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
MASSIVE shift east from the Euro
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: CPAC: LANE - Hurricane
Things are starting to get more nervous now for Hawaii...
Watches are probably forthcoming.
Watches are probably forthcoming.
1 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15439
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 57 guests