CPAC: LANE - Post-Tropical

[ncapps]

Will Kauai and Ohau go under Hurricane watches?

[Alyono]

looks like a Thursday landfall on the GFS

[Bocadude85]

12Z GFS further Northeast so far through 54 hours.

[Alyono]

on satellite, this looks like it reached category 5 status

[Yellow Evan]

WMG eye with W ring now. Classic borderline EPAC T7.0.

[Kingarabian]

looks like a Thursday landfall on the GFS

Models cant handle the topography really well, shows the center still of shore the big island.

[Kingarabian]

Wow, Lane a cat. 5 now... And GFS keeps it a strong major tilt about 6 hours before landfall. We can only pray that the forecast shear actually weakens the system.

[Ntxw]

Recon is on its way but wow, pushing cat 5. Sun will be up soon and some spectacular visibles.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 21 AUG 2018 Time : 150000 UTC
Lat : 14:06:00 N Lon : 152:15:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 939.4mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : +13.9C Cloud Region Temp : -68.0C

Scene Type : EYE

[Kingarabian]

Well let's hope the Turbulence off of the big island will have the desired effect of weakening as it approaches.. Otherwise, the damage will likely be above the normal compared to a mainland US landfall since Hawaii does not have the same building standards.

Yup, and it's just as bad on all the islands. So if this hits a more populated island, it'll be a travesty. Like Alyono said, take the GFS solution and run with it.

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/btangyWx/status/1031905059091755008

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1031937414904913920

[Alyono]

WTNT82 EGRR 211606

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 21.08.2018

HURRICANE LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 151.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.08.2018 0 13.7N 151.6W 985 60
0000UTC 22.08.2018 12 13.9N 153.0W 985 58
1200UTC 22.08.2018 24 14.6N 154.4W 984 55
0000UTC 23.08.2018 36 15.3N 155.7W 981 55
1200UTC 23.08.2018 48 16.5N 156.5W 980 59
0000UTC 24.08.2018 60 18.0N 157.0W 977 59
1200UTC 24.08.2018 72 19.8N 156.8W 982 69
0000UTC 25.08.2018 84 20.8N 158.0W 1001 42
1200UTC 25.08.2018 96 20.1N 159.1W 1003 33
0000UTC 26.08.2018 108 20.0N 160.3W 1005 32
1200UTC 26.08.2018 120 19.6N 162.0W 1005 28
0000UTC 27.08.2018 132 19.5N 163.2W 1004 28
1200UTC 27.08.2018 144 19.4N 164.1W 1004 30

[Bocadude85]

12Z Canadian is a decent amount northeast of the 0Z run but still keeps Lane offshore.

[Kingarabian]

WTNT82 EGRR 211606

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 21.08.2018

HURRICANE LANE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 151.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.08.2018 0 13.7N 151.6W 985 60
0000UTC 22.08.2018 12 13.9N 153.0W 985 58
1200UTC 22.08.2018 24 14.6N 154.4W 984 55
0000UTC 23.08.2018 36 15.3N 155.7W 981 55
1200UTC 23.08.2018 48 16.5N 156.5W 980 59
0000UTC 24.08.2018 60 18.0N 157.0W 977 59
1200UTC 24.08.2018 72 19.8N 156.8W 982 69
0000UTC 25.08.2018 84 20.8N 158.0W 1001 42
1200UTC 25.08.2018 96 20.1N 159.1W 1003 33
0000UTC 26.08.2018 108 20.0N 160.3W 1005 32
1200UTC 26.08.2018 120 19.6N 162.0W 1005 28
0000UTC 27.08.2018 132 19.5N 163.2W 1004 28
1200UTC 27.08.2018 144 19.4N 164.1W 1004 30

Still initialziing wrong.

[Kingarabian]

12Z Canadian is a decent amount northeast of the 0Z run but still keeps Lane offshore.

CMC thinks Lane is currently a shallow TS that moves NW and barely misses Kauai.

[Alyono]

12Z Canadian is a decent amount northeast of the 0Z run but still keeps Lane offshore.

CMC thinks Lane is currently a shallow TS that moves NW and barely misses Kauai.

it also says that the shear is not what weakens this. It intensifies slightly since it is away from the volcanoes

we are counting on a perfect mountain interaction to save Hawaii from a cat 4 or a 5

[Camerooski]

12Z Canadian is a decent amount northeast of the 0Z run but still keeps Lane offshore.

CMC thinks Lane is currently a shallow TS that moves NW and barely misses Kauai.

it also says that the shear is not what weakens this. It intensifies slightly since it is away from the volcanoes

we are counting on a perfect mountain interaction to save Hawaii from a cat 4 or a 5

Lane will interact with the volcanoes no matter what, this will serve to weaken it.

[Alyono]

CMC thinks Lane is currently a shallow TS that moves NW and barely misses Kauai.

it also says that the shear is not what weakens this. It intensifies slightly since it is away from the volcanoes

we are counting on a perfect mountain interaction to save Hawaii from a cat 4 or a 5

Lane will interact with the volcanoes no matter what, this will serve to weaken it.

not as far west as the CMC takes it

[Alyono]

FV 3 obliterates Kona