ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Aug 30, 2018 4:02 am

It appears the disturbance in the AEJ has been declared Invest 90L.

90L INVEST 180830 0600 12.9N 17.0W ATL 20 1007


Image

(Thread for guidance is here.)
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Mon Sep 10, 2018 9:05 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: NATL: Invest 90L

#2 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Aug 30, 2018 4:13 am

Here is the corresponding IR image.

Image
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Sat Sep 01, 2018 5:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Invest 90L

#3 Postby Hammy » Thu Aug 30, 2018 4:40 am

Doesn't look like it'll take very long to develop given current organization.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#4 Postby plasticup » Thu Aug 30, 2018 5:04 am

GFS runs are consistently showing a 930 mb (Cat 4) monster. Euro barely picks it up. Global setup looks good to me. This invest is the one to watch.

So far all steering has this thing recurving around 42-47W, which would make it a solid fish. Still a long way out though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#5 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 30, 2018 5:13 am

A couple hot towers fired off at sunrise.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#6 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 30, 2018 6:37 am

Impressive.
Didn't take long for those towers to get a spin started.
Likely got a relatively deep warm core.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#7 Postby plasticup » Thu Aug 30, 2018 6:39 am

Really kicking off this morning. 90L wastes no time. Deep convection, rotation, honestly it looks like a TS this morning. CV better watch out.
Last edited by plasticup on Thu Aug 30, 2018 6:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#8 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 30, 2018 6:41 am

80%/90%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 30 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a
well-defined low pressure system is located just off the west coast
of Senegal, Africa. Environmental conditions are favorable for a
tropical depression or a tropical storm to form as the disturbance
moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph near the Cabo
Verde Islands during the next day or two. This system is expected to
bring heavy rains and strong gusty winds to the Cabo Verde Islands
on Friday and Saturday, and if the current development trend
continues, Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings will likely be
required for these islands later today. Interests on the Cabo
Verde Islands should continue to closely monitor the progress of
this developing disturbance.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion: 8 AM TWO=80%/90%

#9 Postby Ntxw » Thu Aug 30, 2018 6:43 am

Very impressive looking this morning

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion: 8 AM TWO=80%/90%

#10 Postby plasticup » Thu Aug 30, 2018 6:44 am

80%/90%? Looks like it's already there, to me. At this rate we'll have an upgrade at noon.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#11 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:08 am

I think that's only the second time I have seen a TC spin up this quickly off the coast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#12 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:14 am

Typical TD signature

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#13 Postby Kazmit » Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:16 am

Looks like the GFS may be right with how quickly this develops right off the coast. I think this will be the first major of the season.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#14 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:17 am

GCANE wrote:I think that's only the second time I have seen a TC spin up this quickly off the coast.


When was the first time you saw this rapid development scenario take place?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#15 Postby Ntxw » Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:20 am

cycloneye wrote:
GCANE wrote:I think that's only the second time I have seen a TC spin up this quickly off the coast.


When was the first time you saw this rapid development scenario take place?


Hurricane Fred in 2015 did I believe. Effected Cabo Verde as a hurricane.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#16 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:27 am

cycloneye wrote:
GCANE wrote:I think that's only the second time I have seen a TC spin up this quickly off the coast.


When was the first time you saw this rapid development scenario take place?


I can't remember the exact storm or year.
It was the only time I recall when an Invest was declared over land.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#17 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:27 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#18 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:30 am

More data coming in.

Image

Image

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#19 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:34 am

While a recurving fish looks likely, the latest GFS and CMC ensembles cast a little doubt even if it is slight. See models thread.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#20 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:37 am

12z Best Track:

AL, 90, 2018083012, , BEST, 0, 128N, 179W, 25, 1007, LO


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