ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jelff]

NOAA forecasts river at Fayetteville will rise 50 feet!

Open this map, click the stream gage at Fayetteville and then follow the link.

https://mappingsupport.com/p2/gissurfer.php?center=35.064280,-78.288574&zoom=7&overlay=Stream_gage&txtfile=https://mappingsupport.com/p2/special_maps/disaster/USA_hurricane.txt

[Chris_in_Tampa]

All 21 missions on one image:

[Ptarmigan]

With nightfall, it possible that we could see core rains out of Florence. Core rains form near the center of the low at night. The core tends to be warmer than the surrounding air. Core rains dump heavy rain.

[Ptarmigan]

Is there a list of rainfall totals so far? (or can someone direct me to where the best place to find them is?)

https://nc.water.usgs.gov/realtime/rainfall.php

This is what I've been using, but I believe a Pro Met posted earlier today that there is concern that some of the USGS gauges are malfunctioning and over recording rain.

This gauge has over 40 inches.
https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv?site_no=02092712

It does sound faulty with this one.

[floridasun78]

so bad alot group starting to get cloth and supply their group i know going get money to buy supply

[davidiowx]

so bad alot group starting to get cloth and supply their group i know going get money to buy supply

What?

[marionstorm]

It is hard to tell with the Wilmington radar down. I think the center is right on the coast.

[PTPatrick]

Oh yeah one of those night time streamers I mentioned earlier appears to have formed up over toward Jones, Carteret a
And pamlico counties. These are the type things that did some of the really bad stuff over Houston. Bares watching for sure. Unfortunately it’s sitting over the area that already got much of the heavier banding through the storm

[Ken711]

NHC 11:00PM

Although we lost data from the Wilmington, North Carolina,
WSR-88D radar several hours ago, the radars from Raleigh and
Columbia have clearly shown Florence's center has moved into extreme
eastern South Carolina. Reflectivities around the eye have been
decreasing, but there are still some strong spiral bands moving from
southeast to northwest across portions of southeastern North
Carolina. Maximum Doppler velocities are 65-70 kt from 5000-7000
feet, and on this basis Florence's maximum surface winds are
estimated to be 55 kt.

11:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 14
Location: 33.8°N 79.1°W
Moving: WSW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 980 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

[floridasun78]

so bad alot group starting to get cloth and supply their group i know going get money to buy supply

What?

group from my chruch

[tarheelprogrammer]

Checking in here. We rode it out in Fayetteville. Trees down in the yard and one landed on the electricity lines. So, no power. I am worried about flooding as we are 1 mile from the Cape Fear. Elevation here is around 90 feet. We shall see. Hope everyone else is doing fine.

[PTPatrick]

Looking around at the models there are some indications a strip somewhere around Wilmington toward Fayetteville could get up to 42 inches in the next 48 hrs....that’s on top of the heavy numbers they have already received. This is from the Nam. GFs paints more like 2 ft in the area. So potentially a range of 2-4 feet more.

Parts of the Wilmington area have received over a foot already so likely somewhere could end up in the 3-5 feet range. Not good.

The good news is the axis of heaviest rain seems to have shifted west of new bern and morehead city.

[Aric Dunn]

Hey, anyone in the Charleston area ? I am here till sunday.

[Raebie]

Hey, anyone in the Charleston area ? I am here till sunday.

Come to Charlotte. That's where the party is. Lol. Glad you're safe.

[sponger]

I had forgotten what it was like to be unprepared. Decades of living in Florida has taught me much but Francis taught me to have backup power always, forever. My mom in Hampstead was missing her morning coffee and commenting how you take electricity for granted. Also, how she cannot find the weather radio she bought just in case. I have been sending her pictures of radar so she knows what is going on. This area will be better prepared for the next one but a lot of people were amazingly caught off guard. A little sterno, some pre made food, and a cooler go a long way. That is just to get me through until I can fire the house up. All from years of experience. Hopefully many learned, unfortunately the hard way.

[OiOya]

Hey, anyone in the Charleston area ? I am here till sunday.

Come to Charlotte. That's where the party is. Lol. Glad you're safe.

Come for the storm, stay for the never-ending road construction!

[curtadams]

Is there a list of rainfall totals so far? (or can someone direct me to where the best place to find them is?)

https://nc.water.usgs.gov/realtime/rainfall.php

This is what I've been using, but I believe a Pro Met posted earlier today that there is concern that some of the USGS gauges are malfunctioning and over recording rain.

This gauge has over 40 inches.
https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv?site_no=02092712

It does sound faulty with this one.

Looking at that data, it doesn't look like there is a malfunction overmeasuring rain because the buckets are dumping out prematurely (the stated reason). First, the wind only got up to about 50 mph there, which is not all that high. Second, the rain rate dropped to near zero at peak wind, suggesting if anything it's undermeasuring in high wind. Third, the high rates have continued with 30 mph wind and surely that's not problematic with an official rain gauge?

[Sanibel]

Looks like the SW turn happened over land...

[Nimbus]

Looks like the SW turn happened over land...

NHC official track predicted that, along with the EWRC expanding the wind fields prior to landfall.
NC gets so few hurricanes its just human nature that many were caught off guard with the flooding and power outages. Looks like Florence is beginning to dry up a little for South Carolina but wherever those feeder bans streaming in over the coastline occur you are going to see rain rates of a couple inches an hour..

[jlauderdal]

Looks like the SW turn happened over land...

NHC official track predicted that, along with the EWRC expanding the wind fields prior to landfall.
NC gets so few hurricanes its just human nature that many were caught off guard with the flooding and power outages. Looks like Florence is beginning to dry up a little for South Carolina but wherever those feeder bans streaming in over the coastline occur you are going to see rain rates of a couple inches an hour..

NC is no stranger to hurricane activity and they wernt caught off guard, they knew it was coming but how do prepare for massive flooding.