ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4501 Postby eastcoastFL » Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:45 am

MississippiWx wrote:
hurricaneCW wrote:Outer eyewall looks like it's taking over now, really tightening up on radar.


This is why I believe it could be deepening some.


Albeit not using recon the nhc has her holding steady at 2am.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4502 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:47 am

I can definitely see why she should be strengthening. Normally you see higher winds with pressure this low but with big hurricanes like these it takes such a long time for them to tighten back up.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4503 Postby eastcoastFL » Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:48 am

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: 5:31Z on Friday
Coordinates: 32.9N 78.5W
Location: 87 statute miles (140 km) to the E (85°) from Charleston, SC, USA.
Pressure Altitude: 3,050 meters (10,007 feet)
Flight Level Wind: From 310° at 36 knots (From the NW at ~ 41.4 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Air Temperature: 10°C (50°F)
Flight Level Dew Point: 8°C (46°F)
Weather (within 30 nm): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In and out of clouds
Radar Capability: Yes
700 mb Surface Altitude: 3,094 geopotential meters (10,151 geopotential feet)

Remarks Section ...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 40 knots (~ 46.0 mph)
Start of inbound leg to the center in the southwest quadrant.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4504 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:48 am

The gulfstream is always moving north, so it may not be as much of an issue as you think. I'm more concerned about the apparent very very slow movement. That are getting pounded up there on the coast.
TheDreamTraveler wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:Regardless, this is a hurricane that appears to be stationary on our coast. I think that it's pretty crazy if you ask me.
PavelGaborik10 wrote:It's out of time. Will still be a bad storm but far from the cat 4 monster we expected a couple days ago.

northjaxpro wrote:I hope I am wrong but as I stated a couple of pages back, but it is my fear that Recon will find an intensifying hurricane.

That's the best thing about it stalling out on the coast. As it keeps upwelling water it'll continue to weaken. It's still a huge problem that it's barely moving but at least it won't get any stronger.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4505 Postby meriland29 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:50 am

eastcoastFL wrote:Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: 5:31Z on Friday
Coordinates: 32.9N 78.5W
Location: 87 statute miles (140 km) to the E (85°) from Charleston, SC, USA.
Pressure Altitude: 3,050 meters (10,007 feet)
Flight Level Wind: From 310° at 36 knots (From the NW at ~ 41.4 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Air Temperature: 10°C (50°F)
Flight Level Dew Point: 8°C (46°F)
Weather (within 30 nm): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In and out of clouds
Radar Capability: Yes
700 mb Surface Altitude: 3,094 geopotential meters (10,151 geopotential feet)

Remarks Section ...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 40 knots (~ 46.0 mph)
Start of inbound leg to the center in the southwest quadrant.



So she is a TS now?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4506 Postby MississippiWx » Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:50 am

meriland29 wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: 5:31Z on Friday
Coordinates: 32.9N 78.5W
Location: 87 statute miles (140 km) to the E (85°) from Charleston, SC, USA.
Pressure Altitude: 3,050 meters (10,007 feet)
Flight Level Wind: From 310° at 36 knots (From the NW at ~ 41.4 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Air Temperature: 10°C (50°F)
Flight Level Dew Point: 8°C (46°F)
Weather (within 30 nm): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In and out of clouds
Radar Capability: Yes
700 mb Surface Altitude: 3,094 geopotential meters (10,151 geopotential feet)

Remarks Section ...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 40 knots (~ 46.0 mph)
Start of inbound leg to the center in the southwest quadrant.



So she is a TS now?


Lol. No, that is measured far from the center.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4507 Postby Ubuntwo » Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:52 am

meriland29 wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: 5:31Z on Friday
Coordinates: 32.9N 78.5W
Location: 87 statute miles (140 km) to the E (85°) from Charleston, SC, USA.
Pressure Altitude: 3,050 meters (10,007 feet)
Flight Level Wind: From 310° at 36 knots (From the NW at ~ 41.4 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Air Temperature: 10°C (50°F)
Flight Level Dew Point: 8°C (46°F)
Weather (within 30 nm): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In and out of clouds
Radar Capability: Yes
700 mb Surface Altitude: 3,094 geopotential meters (10,151 geopotential feet)

Remarks Section ...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 40 knots (~ 46.0 mph)
Start of inbound leg to the center in the southwest quadrant.



So she is a TS now?

Oh heavens no, the plane just entered the outer edge of the storm.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4508 Postby wayoutfront » Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:52 am

meriland29 wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: 5:31Z on Friday
Coordinates: 32.9N 78.5W
Location: 87 statute miles (140 km) to the E (85°) from Charleston, SC, USA.
Pressure Altitude: 3,050 meters (10,007 feet)
Flight Level Wind: From 310° at 36 knots (From the NW at ~ 41.4 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Air Temperature: 10°C (50°F)
Flight Level Dew Point: 8°C (46°F)
Weather (within 30 nm): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In and out of clouds
Radar Capability: Yes
700 mb Surface Altitude: 3,094 geopotential meters (10,151 geopotential feet)

Remarks Section ...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 40 knots (~ 46.0 mph)
Start of inbound leg to the center in the southwest quadrant.



So she is a TS now?


No that just a spot report. Bottom line says they are on the inbound leg ..just reaching the storm
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4509 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:53 am

SouthFloridawx wrote:Regardless, this is a hurricane that appears to be stationary on our coast. I think that it's pretty crazy if you ask me.
PavelGaborik10 wrote:It's out of time. Will still be a bad storm but far from the cat 4 monster we expected a couple days ago.


Hence why I said it'll still be a bad storm. Certainly not even close to what it could've been, but still a bad storm.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4510 Postby Ubuntwo » Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:53 am

At least thus far, flight level winds seem to be better correlated to SFMR winds. The convection increase may have helped to mix down these winds.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4511 Postby meriland29 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:53 am

Okay, thanks guys...I sped through that read a little.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4512 Postby wayoutfront » Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:55 am

meriland29 wrote:Okay, thanks guys...I sped through that read a little.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

Click there and you can track recon yourself :)
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4513 Postby meriland29 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:55 am

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4514 Postby meriland29 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:00 am

She sure looks to be heading S if anything...

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4515 Postby shah83 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:00 am

It's a mini-Ike. Category 1 winds are bad, but they are usually in a small spot, maybe still over water in a normal cat1 cane. Ike had *general* cat 1 winds, and looks like Florence does too...
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4516 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:01 am

953.6 mb

Pretty steady state it seems
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4517 Postby panamatropicwatch » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:02 am

This latest convective burst is not dying out and has almost wrapped completely around the eye.
Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4518 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:05 am

meriland29 wrote:She sure looks to be heading S if anything...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir-dvorak


The eyewall may be barely drifting or slight jog southwest or parallel to the NC coast the past hour or so. The cyclone essentially is barely moving if at all currently.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:09 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4519 Postby artist » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:06 am

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
...CATASTROPHIC FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 77.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4520 Postby eastcoastFL » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:10 am

So far pressure is 965.7 mb
(~ 28.52 inHg) not at the center yet
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