ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4521 Postby wayoutfront » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:11 am

EquusStorm wrote:Sandy was 'only' a (post tropical equivalent of) category one at landfall and Ike was 'only' a category two, so yeah, a more flood/surge/size impact-based scale would probably help lessen complacency a good bit


The 1000 year flood of SC in 2015 wasnt even a storm
15-20 inches of rain in 5 days

Floyd in 99 dumped 15-20 inches of rain and flooded eastern NC ..granted Dennis came through several weeks earlier ...

Just saying the rainfall totals are going be a devastating
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4522 Postby MississippiWx » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:16 am

Looks like 85kt surface winds in a secondary wind maxima in the northeast quadrant. Florence could be a little stronger wind-wise.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4523 Postby meriland29 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:16 am

Recon has found some higher winds in the last few measurements..

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4524 Postby StruThiO » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:16 am

85 kts sfmr. So cat 2 I guess
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4525 Postby panamatropicwatch » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:17 am

HH reported 96.7mph sfmr close to cape lookout.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4526 Postby wayoutfront » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:17 am

StruThiO wrote:85 kts sfmr. So cat 2 I guess

Doesn't the 2 pink flags mean 100
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4527 Postby StruThiO » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:19 am

:uarrow: yes it does, but that is flight level not at the surface. Thus we use sfmr
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4528 Postby meriland29 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:20 am

StruThiO wrote:85 kts sfmr. So cat 2 I guess



So far? Or officially
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4529 Postby MrStormX » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:21 am

Looks like Jeff shouldn't have moved to Wilmington, he would have been closer to those 85 kt winds at his old location.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4530 Postby wayoutfront » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:21 am

StruThiO wrote::uarrow: yes it does, but that is flight level not at the surface. Thus we use sfmr


I agree but I was talking about flight level ...the report said 96
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4531 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:23 am

StruThiO wrote::uarrow: yes it does, but that is flight level not at the surface. Thus we use sfmr

I brlieve that is flight level.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4532 Postby panamatropicwatch » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:25 am

Time: 06:06:30Z
Coordinates: 34.600N 76.517W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.7 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,016 m (9,895 ft)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 149° at 88 kts (From the SSE at 101.3 mph)
Air Temp: 9.5°C* (49.1°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 89 kts (102.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 84 kts (96.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/hr (0.16 in/hr)
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4533 Postby southerngale » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:29 am

Derek Ortt
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SFMR confirms cat 2

1:12AM 14 Sep 18
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4534 Postby meriland29 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:29 am

Her tops warming a little the last few frames?
Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4535 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:31 am

Yeah, Florence is back as a Cat 2 observing the last Recon report.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4536 Postby chaser1 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:32 am

Rail Dawg wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
Well, at least Florence offered an easier "soft landing" to more easily position yourself. What kind of wind have you been able to get into since getting there?

Positioning yourself ahead of landfall is nearly always a crap-shoot with chasing. Some chases certainly don't afford that luxury of extra time by the time they make landfall. Where were you in Charlie?


Had maybe 50 mph gusts in Wilmington before leaving. River was high even for low tide... not a good sign.

Was just south of Tampa for Charley. That one was a surprise wasn’t it?


Doesn't seem like it'll be close to the wind event it might've been. Be super careful with those rising waters though. Yep, Charlie spun up, intensified right till landfall, and was on a tear from the get-go. We intercepted the eye in Port Charlotte.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4537 Postby meriland29 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:33 am

The Dvorak loop is very interesting... her eye just popped out like a pop up turkey timer..


Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4538 Postby artist » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:35 am

Why don’t people listen?!?

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4539 Postby Condor » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:35 am

northjaxpro wrote:
meriland29 wrote:She sure looks to be heading S if anything...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir-dvorak


The eyewall may be barely drifting or slight jog southwest or parallel to the NC coast the past hour or so. The cyclone essentially is barely moving if at all currently.


Anyone see this image right at the last frame?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4540 Postby meriland29 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:37 am

Condor wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
meriland29 wrote:She sure looks to be heading S if anything...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir-dvorak


The eyewall may be barely drifting or slight jog southwest or parallel to the NC coast the past hour or so. The cyclone essentially is barely moving if at all currently.


Anyone see this image right at the last frame?



Yes, that is what i mean...she looks like she is heading to 34N.
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