ATL: FLORENCE - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4182
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#1 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Aug 30, 2018 4:04 am

A thread for members of guidance. Be sure to keep the discussion in the main thread for the system.
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Thu Aug 30, 2018 4:38 am, edited 3 times in total.
3 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4182
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

Re: NATL: Invest 90L - Guidance

#2 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Aug 30, 2018 4:11 am

As a start, here is the recent 00Z EPS mean.

Image
0 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5544
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: Invest 90L - Guidance

#3 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 30, 2018 4:46 am

GFS showing a long-duration due north track over very warm water.
IMHO, intensity is underestimated.
Could be a problem for Ireland.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20747
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#4 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 30, 2018 6:55 am

Interesting that two of the GFS ensemble members show this now getting blocked by a ridge and sent west. Long-range image of those two ensembles:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20747
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#5 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:33 am

Also we have some GEPS ensembles showing the system getting blocked by a ridge and heading west. Long-range position:

Image
0 likes   

plasticup
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 822
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 2010 5:49 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#6 Postby plasticup » Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:46 am

This ridge is looking less and less certain as time goes by.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20747
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#7 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:06 am

12Z GFS coming in weaker...

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

shiny-pebble
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 51
Joined: Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:38 pm

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#8 Postby shiny-pebble » Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:06 am

GFS has this reaching minimal hurricane status then weakening 60 hours out

Sent from my LG-H700 using Tapatalk
0 likes   

User avatar
Siker
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 742
Age: 21
Joined: Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:36 pm
Location: New Orleans, LA / Williamstown, MA

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#9 Postby Siker » Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:23 am

12z GFS is much more reasonable given very marginal SST’s ahead. Best shot at major status is in a week or so once it reaches the warm central subtropics.
0 likes   

GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5544
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#10 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:31 am

Large PV Streamer / Ridge is back, keeping a lid on its intensity.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 38
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#11 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 30, 2018 12:18 pm

The 12zgfs seems to stall or slow this considerably for a day or so between day 8 and 9 which makes me go this is close to not being a guaranteed recurve, let’s see what the ensembles say as that could be a game changer if the weakness isn’t as strong
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 38
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#12 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 30, 2018 12:22 pm

gatorcane wrote:Interesting that two of the GFS ensemble members show this now getting blocked by a ridge and sent west. Long-range image of those two ensembles:

https://s8.postimg.cc/6oaw0h28l/gfs-eme ... atl_58.png

Or even WSW for a time, while some are saying this is a guaranteed recurve, I’m not so sure it’s a guarantee but we have a lot of time to watch this whatever it decides to do
1 likes   

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 38
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#13 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 30, 2018 12:51 pm

There a a few weaker ensembles of the 12zGEFS that go west after getting trapped under the ridge but the stronger members are still a recurve so the chances of a recurve are about 85% so that’s what I’m going to go with
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114734
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#14 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 30, 2018 1:37 pm

12z Euro is a little bit stronger than past runs.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2720
Age: 57
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#15 Postby chaser1 » Thu Aug 30, 2018 2:41 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Interesting that two of the GFS ensemble members show this now getting blocked by a ridge and sent west. Long-range image of those two ensembles:

https://s8.postimg.cc/6oaw0h28l/gfs-eme ... atl_58.png

Or even WSW for a time, while some are saying this is a guaranteed recurve, I’m not so sure it’s a guarantee but we have a lot of time to watch this whatever it decides to do


Though I'd likely bet on an eventual Northwest motion leading to getting pulled up and into the westerlies.... I'd tend to agree that for reasons just mentioned in the forum Discussion thread, that a combination of delayed development and perhaps a somewhat more shallow system in the near term could have an outside chance of changing the timing enough where increasing 500 mb heights over the W. Atlantic and a departing trough to the north of the storm could have downstream impact in blocking further northward motion. I think this is doubtful but within the realm of possibility.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



mlfreeman
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 39
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:48 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#16 Postby mlfreeman » Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:10 pm

The GFS ensembles are pondering the possibility of it not recurving.
Note these images from 06z and 18z today. The 12z didn't ponder the possibility.

I'm in Jacksonville, so I'm not exactly fond of a storm being off the coast like that heading westerly.
However, I know it is 300+ hours out, so anything can happen...but on the flip side, anything can happen.

Image
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
JaxGator
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 701
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2016 3:33 pm
Location: Jacksonville Florida

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#17 Postby JaxGator » Thu Aug 30, 2018 8:19 pm

mlfreeman wrote:The GFS ensembles are pondering the possibility of it not recurving.
Note these images from 06z and 18z today. The 12z didn't ponder the possibility.

I'm in Jacksonville, so I'm not exactly fond of a storm being off the coast like that heading westerly.
However, I know it is 300+ hours out, so anything can happen...but on the flip side, anything can happen.

Image
Image


Please no...thank goodness it is 300hrs out, because Jax and Florida don't need another hurricane after Matthew and Irma. The odds are that future Florence will be a fish (besides the Cabo/Cape Verde's) per Euro and GFS and it'll be a beautiful hurricane to view from afar where it might be hit by a TUTT. However, still time to monitor for changes. Fingers crossed the ridge doesn't build back in.
0 likes   
The posts or stuff said are NOT an official forecast. Please look to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.

Floyd-1999, Frances-2004, Jeanne-2004, Fay-2008, Beryl-2012, Debby-2012, Colin-2016, Hermine-2016 , Julia-2016, Matthew-2016, Irma-2017.


Go Gators! Go Jags!

User avatar
pgoss11
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 536
Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 3:55 pm

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#18 Postby pgoss11 » Thu Aug 30, 2018 8:45 pm

mlfreeman wrote:The GFS ensembles are pondering the possibility of it not recurving.
Note these images from 06z and 18z today. The 12z didn't ponder the possibility.

I'm in Jacksonville, so I'm not exactly fond of a storm being off the coast like that heading westerly.
However, I know it is 300+ hours out, so anything can happen...but on the flip side, anything can happen.

Image
Image


Someone can correct me if I'm wrong but the date on these images are for Septmeber 15th. Wouldn't that be system after future TC #6 that looks to be off the SE coast?
1 likes   

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3295
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#19 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:52 pm

this expect be fish so models changing their story?
1 likes   

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 38
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#20 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:46 pm

The 0zGFS has this system 10 degrees farther west and 3 degrees farther south at 10 days which means any west shifts could put Bermuda and Eastern Canada into the mix
0 likes   


Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests