ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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Vdogg
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3941 Postby Vdogg » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:00 pm

No change in direction, still NW. I honestly would've gone with WNW, but hard to tell with that eye. Local Mets said we're only going to get 2-5 in of rain in SeVA. No way that verifies with the track this is on.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3942 Postby Vdogg » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:01 pm

MacTavish wrote:
plasticup wrote:
MacTavish wrote:None of the models seem to depict inland surface winds very well. I mean the 18z GFS shows landfall at 949mb, but the northern eyewall over land is producing only 40-45kt winds

http://i67.tinypic.com/o8az9k.png

Sounds right to me. Hurricanes don't do well over land. What is your concern about that?

Winds should be higher at landfall with that pressure. It will weaken over land, but there will be a corresponding rise in pressure. I understand what you were saying.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3943 Postby wayoutfront » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:18 pm

Vdogg wrote:No change in direction, still NW. I honestly would've gone with WNW, but hard to tell with that eye. Local Mets said we're only going to get 2-5 in of rain in SeVA. No way that verifies with the track this is on.


How so ? It's not yet 31 degrees north and not supposed to slow its NW movement for 36 more hours and wont totally hit the brakes on the N direction for at least 48 hours at 34 degrees
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3944 Postby Ken711 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:21 pm

wayoutfront wrote:
Vdogg wrote:No change in direction, still NW. I honestly would've gone with WNW, but hard to tell with that eye. Local Mets said we're only going to get 2-5 in of rain in SeVA. No way that verifies with the track this is on.


How so ? It's not yet 31 degrees north and not supposed to slow its NW movement for 36 more hours and wont totally hit the brakes on the N direction for at least 48 hours at 34 degrees



NHC 8:00 Update.

8:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 12
Location: 31.5°N 73.2°W
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 956 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3945 Postby Vdogg » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:27 pm

Ken711 wrote:
wayoutfront wrote:
Vdogg wrote:No change in direction, still NW. I honestly would've gone with WNW, but hard to tell with that eye. Local Mets said we're only going to get 2-5 in of rain in SeVA. No way that verifies with the track this is on.


How so ? It's not yet 31 degrees north and not supposed to slow its NW movement for 36 more hours and wont totally hit the brakes on the N direction for at least 48 hours at 34 degrees



NHC 8:00 Update.

8:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 12
Location: 31.5°N 73.2°W
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 956 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph

With the models shifting North, and the expansion of the overall hurricane, I'm saying that we will get more rain. Their earlier forecast was based upon a smaller hurricane and a further south landfall.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3946 Postby invest man » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:46 pm

Vdogg wrote:
Ken711 wrote:
wayoutfront wrote:
How so ? It's not yet 31 degrees north and not supposed to slow its NW movement for 36 more hours and wont totally hit the brakes on the N direction for at least 48 hours at 34 degrees



NHC 8:00 Update.

8:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 12
Location: 31.5°N 73.2°W
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 956 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph

With the models shifting North, and the expansion of the overall hurricane, I'm saying that we will get more rain. Their earlier forecast was based upon a smaller hurricane and a further south landfall.

So what's your thinking on a LF point, stall like the GFS and SW drift? Just curious. IM
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3947 Postby invest man » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:54 pm

Curious. Did any model show this ULL off Florida and what would be the thinking of the track? Wondering if it would shove it more north into that high pressure causing it to stall closer to the pamlico sound causing more flooding further north by just a tick. I realize there's no support for this in the models but I don't remember any talk about this ULL either. As I said just curious.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3948 Postby Vdogg » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:56 pm

invest man wrote:
Vdogg wrote:
Ken711 wrote:

NHC 8:00 Update.


With the models shifting North, and the expansion of the overall hurricane, I'm saying that we will get more rain. Their earlier forecast was based upon a smaller hurricane and a further south landfall.

So what's your thinking on a LF point, stall like the GFS and SW drift? Just curious. IM

Not a met, but in all my 20+ years of weathering storms in this area, I haven't quite seen that. The models don't seem to sure about it either. Not impossible, but definitely unusual. I feel like the left hook and stall inland scenario is far more plausible.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3949 Postby invest man » Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:05 pm

Vdogg wrote:
invest man wrote:
Vdogg wrote:With the models shifting North, and the expansion of the overall hurricane, I'm saying that we will get more rain. Their earlier forecast was based upon a smaller hurricane and a further south landfall.

So what's your thinking on a LF point, stall like the GFS and SW drift? Just curious. IM

Not a met, but in all my 20+ years of weathering storms in this area, I haven't quite seen that. The models don't seem to sure about it either. Not impossible, but definitely unusual. I feel like the left hook and stall inland scenario is far more plausible.

It seems to be moving quickly on that 315 degree heading and wondering if it keeps it going in that direction until landfall perhaps near MHC hook left and stall inland. Not a met either a native of 55 yrs to the crystal coast area!
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3950 Postby Ken711 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:14 pm

invest man wrote:
Vdogg wrote:
invest man wrote:So what's your thinking on a LF point, stall like the GFS and SW drift? Just curious. IM

Not a met, but in all my 20+ years of weathering storms in this area, I haven't quite seen that. The models don't seem to sure about it either. Not impossible, but definitely unusual. I feel like the left hook and stall inland scenario is far more plausible.

It seems to be moving quickly on that 315 degree heading and wondering if it keeps it going in that direction until landfall perhaps near MHC hook left and stall inland. Not a met either a native of 55 yrs to the crystal coast area!


Wait to see the 0z models come out, they will have the latest track and speed among all their other input data.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3951 Postby GTStorm » Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:27 pm

Image

0Z early guidance...
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3952 Postby GTStorm » Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:28 pm

Image

And this.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3953 Postby Vdogg » Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:33 pm

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3954 Postby Blown Away » Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:34 pm

00z early guidance appears now locked in on track into NC w/o the big crazy loop & extreme SW dive...
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3955 Postby Vdogg » Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:36 pm

Blown Away wrote:00z early guidance appears now locked in on track into NC w/o the big crazy loop & extreme SW dive...

Those tracks are flattening. It's possible we come full circle back to the ride up central NC/VA solution.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3956 Postby smithtim » Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:50 pm



You can see all the details here

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

But basically it's a linear regression model that just uses very recent info of this storm ( current trajectory, pressure etc ) so not a major player. Also, that clp5 is just old climatology which again is not really a major player definitely not dyamic predictive like math solution as others are.

IMHO best to follow are gfs & euro ensembles, and how nhc address them in their discussions at 5:00 and 11:00
Last edited by smithtim on Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Disclaimer: while I am PhD who does research I'm rambling here so this post should be taken only for entertainment...use nhc.noaa.gov for official forecasts!

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3957 Postby syfr » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:22 pm

Vdogg wrote:
GTStorm wrote:Ok, I'll bite. What's TCPL?

ThatCuriousPurpleLine?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3958 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:24 pm

LOL

Oh, hey now, stop filling up the models thread with off topic stuff please.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3959 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:34 pm

GFS started on Tidbits. It’s only out to 12 hours yet.

Fwiw NAM and RGEM show it weakening as it pushes southwest. It’s not that far inland both both reduce the intensity fairly quickly.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3960 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:39 pm

Trapped at 30 hours. it’s moving still though slowing at this timeframe.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1300&fh=30
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