ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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Steve
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3961 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:51 pm

66 hours in, GFS is in northern South Carolina. Some parts of the NC coast have been in the eyewall or inner core for 36 hours. Damn. That’s a hell of a ride

Edit 72 hours in parts of the NC coast have been in it for 42 hours.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1300&fh=72
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3962 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:57 pm

78 hours has Florence at 995 and over central SC. Feeder bands still atop the southern NC coast. So that’s 2 full days. You see how they can get 30+ inches of rain.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1300&fh=78

Masive 14”+ swath pretty far into NC at 78 hours. Inland flooding.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1300&fh=78
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3963 Postby smithtim » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:59 pm

Steve wrote:Trapped at 30 hours. it’s moving still though slowing at this timeframe.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1300&fh=30


After 36 hours, bit after landfall, it's continuing inland. then, during 42-60 hours tracks, sw but over land so weakens... then basically hops on i20 to head westbound



And, crazy Canadian saying very similar but weakens storm quicker but takes i20 all the way over to ATL
Last edited by smithtim on Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:05 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3964 Postby bigGbear » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:00 pm

Very good consistency between 00z and 18z . Slightly ENE at most points.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3965 Postby KyleEverett » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:01 pm

The key player over the next 24 hours is the upper level low near Florida. The moment it crosses over Florida heading west is when Florence begins to restrengthen on the GFS. GFS has it go from 966 to 949mb in just 12 hours once upper levels become more favourable.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3966 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:05 pm

102 hours GFS has the remnant low or depression up near the KY/OH border south of Columbus.

114H it’s around Cleveland/Ashtabula. So initially trapped on GFS but able to get out in 3.5/4 days
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 300&fh=114
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3967 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:15 pm

CMC is similar to the GFS but it takes a bit farther of a western route once inland and ends up at the OH/IN border and goes out by way of Lake Erie into Ontario.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91300&fh=6
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3968 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:18 pm

CMC sucks down a low from the Central Atlantic and repeats the pattern with a weaker system. Lmao.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 300&fh=108

And Isaac hits SELA.

All hail the Canadian
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3969 Postby sponger » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:57 pm

Love the low forming off Jacksonville FL from a stalled front at the end of the run. If that verifies, I will bow to the GFS greatness. Looking forward to the Euro run as we are getting down to go time.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3970 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:39 am

0Z EPS mean slightly south of operational again. I strongly suspect a south bias of EPS vs operational as I've been noticing this on most Florence runs for days. Otherwise, I'd be more concerned even way down here. I would be concerned in CHS for sure though. About half the members move SW offshore SC and other half on SC coast or inland in SC. Fwiw, the members cover SC and even most of GA by the weekend with more than a handful of TS+s even coming west into S GA this weekend. For here, I don't know whether or not to ignore these southern members and assume they're due to southern bias or not. They're such outliers vs other models. Opinions welcomed.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3971 Postby wxmann_91 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:46 am

LarryWx wrote:0Z EPS mean slightly south of operational again. I strongly suspect a south bias of EPS vs operational as I've been noticing this on most Florence runs for days. Otherwise, I'd be more concerned even way down here. I would be concerned in CHS for sure though. About half the members move SW offshore SC and other half on SC coast or inland in SC. Fwiw, the members cover SC and even most of GA by the weekend with more than a handful of TS+s even coming west into S GA this weekend. For here, I don't know whether or not to ignore these southern members and assume they're due to southern bias or not. They're such outliers vs other models. Opinions welcomed.

EPS had a left bias during Irma and Matthew as well. I wouldn't put too much stock in the far southern solutions.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3972 Postby sittingduck » Thu Sep 13, 2018 4:17 am

Wonder if what the GFS and CMC are seeing is the area that the NHC discussed in their TWO’s yesterday. They gave it a 20 percent chance to developer in 5 days
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3973 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:38 am

0z Euro
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3974 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:42 am

6Z GFS
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3975 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:44 am

6Z FV3-GFS
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3976 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:47 am

6Z HWRF
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3977 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:50 am

* note that all models except Euro keep this onshore

6Z HMON
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3978 Postby syfr » Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:50 am

man that wind field in the post above stops QUICKLY at the coastline....
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3979 Postby WxGuy1 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:00 am

syfr wrote:man that wind field in the post above stops QUICKLY at the coastline....


That's very common with tropical cyclones (and low-level wind flow in general). There's comparatively little resistance to air flow over open water, whereas flow over land is slowed by interaction with the ground and objects (e.g., trees, hills, buildings, etc.) on the ground. Similarly, areas with a lot of trees and hills tend to see weaker winds than areas that are open (such as much of the Great Plains of the central U.S.), which is part of the reason why we can see widespread (as in swaths over 100 miles wide) high near-ground (2 m and 10 m above ground level) winds in the Plains and over large bodies of water such as the Great Lakes. In most hurricanes, the potential for catastrophic damaging winds is generally limited to areas very near the coast or sometimes along the downwind side of large lakes. That's not to say that wind damage isn't possible farther in-land, of course! Although winds may be much weaker (like, 50-75% weaker depending upon the storm) farther away from the coast, there is still potential for widespread damage owing to falling trees (which can be a big issue when the soil is saturated and there is a prolonged period of strong winds, even if the winds aren't 70+ mph).
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3980 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:40 am

12Z GFS a little E of last 3 runs fwiw hour 24
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