ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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LarryWx
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3981 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:47 am

12Z Gfs 48: 30 miles ESE of 6Z run or where NC/SC line hits ocean

Corrected
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3982 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:54 am

12Z gfs hits Myrtle Beach dead-on before turning inland. Prior 3 runs were about 25 miles inland from there fwiw
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3983 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:07 am

The 12Z GGEM hour 42 is 50 miles SE of its 0Z run or near Georgetown, SC, right on coast vs Florence, SC, on prior run.
Last edited by LarryWx on Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3984 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:22 am

The 12Z JMA hour 72 is well south of prior runs down in S central SC I think below Columbia
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3985 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:26 am

12Z GFS
Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3986 Postby SconnieCane » Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:29 am

The GFS' insistence on deepening is a tad concerning, but only a tad since that model has a well known overdeepening bias.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3987 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:38 am

All models, even including the Euro, get her to just N of 34N tonight and tomorrow morning before any SW turn. So, I think that’s a benchmark of sorts. Will she make it up to there by then? There’s still plenty of time (18-24 hours) to do so per models.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3988 Postby skufful » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:08 pm

http://www.windalert.com/storm/florence#34.088,-83.095,7,8

Nice Link - Would seem to be tracking a little North of NHC prediction if I am seeing it correctly.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3989 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:30 pm

Following the lead of the GFS, CDN, and JMA, the 12 UKMET is ~50 miles E of the 0Z run at hour 48 with it not far inland from Georgetown vs between Florence and Columbia on 0Z UK. OTOH, the 12Z FV3 is a little NE of its prior run.

With the 4 models moving somewhat toward the 0Z Euro, will the Euro hold serve with its still on its own CHS hit or will it finally come back to the consensus some and be N of CHS? Any bets?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3990 Postby pgoss11 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:50 pm

LarryWx wrote:Following the lead of the GFS, CDN, and JMA, the 12 UKMET is ~50 miles E of the 0Z run at hour 48 with it not far inland from Georgetown vs between Florence and Columbia on 0Z UK. OTOH, the 12Z FV3 is a little NE of its prior run.

With the 4 models moving somewhat toward the 0Z Euro, will the Euro hold serve with its still on its own CHS hit or will it finally come back to the consensus some and be N of CHS? Any bets?

I've been wondering why Charleston is still under a Hurricane watch and maybe NHC is waiting to see how soon Florence takes that SW turn. I'm betting Florence is inland when she makes the SW turn.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3991 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:54 pm

12Z Euro 24 hour a bit SW of 0Z
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3992 Postby Ken711 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:58 pm

LarryWx wrote:12Z Euro 24 hour a bit SW of 0Z


Really hard to tell, certainly a small change.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3993 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:00 pm

Ken711 wrote:
LarryWx wrote:12Z Euro 24 hour a bit SW of 0Z


Really hard to tell, certainly a small change.


Per 48 hour map, CHS will be hit yet again by the Euro.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3994 Postby Ken711 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:02 pm

LarryWx wrote:
Ken711 wrote:
LarryWx wrote:12Z Euro 24 hour a bit SW of 0Z


Really hard to tell, certainly a small change.


Per 48 hour map, CHS will be hit yet again by the Euro.


Yes a bit SE of 0z run.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3995 Postby bg1 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:03 pm

The 12Z runs have barely changed over the past three days at hour 24.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3996 Postby pgoss11 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:04 pm

LarryWx wrote:
Ken711 wrote:
LarryWx wrote:12Z Euro 24 hour a bit SW of 0Z


Really hard to tell, certainly a small change.


Per 48 hour map, CHS will be hit yet again by the Euro.

Yeah..heading SW down the coast still off shore. I wonder if we need to take the left bias of the Euro into consideration?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3997 Postby bg1 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:07 pm

pgoss11 wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
Ken711 wrote:
Really hard to tell, certainly a small change.


Per 48 hour map, CHS will be hit yet again by the Euro.

Yeah..heading SW down the coast still off shore. I wonder if we need to take the left bias of the Euro into consideration?

"Left" in regards to storm motion right?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3998 Postby pgoss11 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:08 pm

bg1 wrote:
pgoss11 wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
Per 48 hour map, CHS will be hit yet again by the Euro.

Yeah..heading SW down the coast still off shore. I wonder if we need to take the left bias of the Euro into consideration?

"Left" in regards to storm motion right?[/quote

Yes. Euro tends to be left biased in direction while the GFS tends to be right sided.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3999 Postby pgoss11 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:10 pm

Euro is persistent. I personally hope it's wrong.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4000 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:13 pm

Still just off the coast, as noted above. Does make a landfall near Wilmington before going back out to sea.

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