ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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LarryWx
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4001 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:15 pm

The 12Z Euro is similar to the 0Z Euro and is a whopping 100 miles S of the 12Z GFS at hour 72 after hitting CHS almost dead-on! This may turn into a forecasting nightmare for places like CHS!
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4002 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:17 pm

12Z Euro (incomplete)
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4003 Postby Ken711 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:17 pm

LarryWx wrote:The 12Z Euro is similar to the 0Z Euro and is a whopping 100 miles S of the 12Z GFS at hour 72 after hitting CHS almost dead-on! This may turn into a forecasting nightmare for places like CHS!


It's going to cause damage on both the NC and SC coastal areas.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4004 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:19 pm

Rain maps for ECMWF?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4005 Postby pgoss11 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:19 pm

tolakram wrote:12Z Euro (incomplete)
https://i.imgur.com/AZVoerp.gif

That shows the run more accurately than the 12 hour incremental run map
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4006 Postby N2FSU » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:56 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4007 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:13 pm

The Euro runs have been running a little south of reality and I think are still barely south. However, the projected Euro track for the current time is near 300 degrees/aiming for Topsail even though it never gets there (WNW) and Flo has been moving 280 or an aim toward the NC/SC border. As a result, the Euro is getting close to no longer being south of reality and will get there shortly if a 290-300 direction doesn't resume soon.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4008 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:37 pm

12Z EPS mean is still calling for a S SC hit with a higher % of the members vs the 0Z now staying offshore before coming back into lower SC. Also, there are now very few, if any, TS+ landfalls in GA.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4009 Postby GTStorm » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:48 pm

LarryWx wrote:12Z EPS mean is still calling for a S SC hit with a higher % of the members vs the 0Z now staying offshore before coming back into lower SC. Also, there are now very few, if any, TS+ landfalls in GA.


And there was much rejoicing here in Tybee Island....but we're still gonna keep an eye out. Don't like that Euro is so persistent with more southerly dip, but feel confident (I.e. hoping) it is an outlier.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4010 Postby skufful » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:14 pm

LarryWx wrote:The Euro runs have been running a little south of reality and I think are still barely south. However, the projected Euro track for the current time is near 300 degrees/aiming for Topsail even though it never gets there (WNW) and Flo has been moving 280 or an aim toward the NC/SC border. As a result, the Euro is getting close to no longer being south of reality and will get there shortly if a 290-300 direction doesn't resume soon.


http://www.windalert.com/storm/florence#34.6,-78.408,7,8

Looks to me to be following the track line, even wobbling more North at the end of this last 10 minutes.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4011 Postby pgoss11 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 4:05 pm

NHC not buying into the 12Z Euro track SW down the coast.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4012 Postby SCHawkFan » Thu Sep 13, 2018 4:27 pm

pgoss11 wrote:NHC not buying into the 12Z Euro track SW down the coast.


They don't have to yet. The storm is moving so slow they have time to adjust the track south if necessary.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4013 Postby Blinhart » Thu Sep 13, 2018 4:29 pm

SCHawkFan wrote:
pgoss11 wrote:NHC not buying into the 12Z Euro track SW down the coast.


They don't have to yet. The storm is moving so slow they have time to adjust the track south if necessary.


They have to be careful not to over adjust so their isn't any back and forth.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4014 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 4:52 pm

Blinhart wrote:
SCHawkFan wrote:
pgoss11 wrote:NHC not buying into the 12Z Euro track SW down the coast.


They don't have to yet. The storm is moving so slow they have time to adjust the track south if necessary.


They have to be careful not to over adjust so their isn't any back and forth.


The 18Z GFS trended closer to the 12z Euro, has Florence moving southwest down the SC coast.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4015 Postby Ken711 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 4:57 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
SCHawkFan wrote:
They don't have to yet. The storm is moving so slow they have time to adjust the track south if necessary.


They have to be careful not to over adjust so their isn't any back and forth.


The 18Z GFS trended closer to the 12z Euro, has Florence moving southwest down the SC coast.


Yes it did. Wonder what the NHC 11:00 PM update and track will do.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4016 Postby Ken711 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 5:18 pm

18Z HWRF also closer to Euro just inland heading down the SC coastline.

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4017 Postby mcheer23 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 5:20 pm

Ken711 wrote:18Z HWRF also closer to Euro just inland heading down the SC coastline.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2018091312/hwrf_ref_06L_14.png


Thats 12z

18z rolls in about an hour
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4018 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 13, 2018 5:51 pm

18Z GFS now has the offshore solution but brings it onshore in northern SC.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4019 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:07 pm

Remember when the gfs was to the right?

tolakram wrote:18Z GFS now has the offshore solution but brings it onshore in northern SC.
https://i.imgur.com/fXS4xtP.gif
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#4020 Postby Laminar » Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:51 pm

Would you say to expect it somewhat further left due to the right bias of the GFS? Would that put Charleston back into play?
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