CPAC: OLIVIA - Post-Tropical

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cycloneye
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CPAC: OLIVIA - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 30, 2018 1:18 pm

EPac keeps very busy and now a new one is up.

EP, 91, 2018082712, , BEST, 0, 112N, 1056W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2018083000, , BEST, 0, 112N, 1056W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS029, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 029,
EP, 91, 2018083006, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1053W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS029, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 029,
EP, 91, 2018083012, , BEST, 0, 120N, 1052W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS029, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 029,
EP, 91, 2018083018, , BEST, 0, 124N, 1051W, 25, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 029, SPAWNINVEST, ep732018 to ep912018,
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#2 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 30, 2018 1:19 pm

Should be Olivia in due time.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#3 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 30, 2018 1:51 pm

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912018 08/30/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 31 34 40 46 54 62 67 71 72
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 31 34 40 46 54 62 67 71 72
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 28 29 29 31 33 34 36 39 42 45
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 21 17 16 16 14 11 16 14 16 16 20 20 23
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 7 5 2 5 0 4 5 3 -1 4 0
SHEAR DIR 41 35 37 35 25 10 11 1 15 38 56 55 45
SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.1
POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 160 161 162 163 163 162 159 157 156 155 153
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8
700-500 MB RH 84 83 84 87 84 82 80 78 75 75 72 74 72
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 8
850 MB ENV VOR -41 -37 -27 -11 -5 -4 -10 -29 -17 5 19 28 39
200 MB DIV 30 62 86 76 84 96 71 78 98 70 83 66 60
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 -1 -2 -4 -3 -2 -3 -4 -8
LAND (KM) 669 641 637 641 658 706 769 858 933 964 1022 1098 1155
LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.6 13.9 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.0 14.8 14.5 14.6
LONG(DEG W) 105.1 105.4 105.9 106.5 107.1 108.4 109.9 111.3 112.7 113.8 114.6 115.5 116.6
STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 4 4 5 5
HEAT CONTENT 43 43 42 43 44 35 27 32 29 20 15 14 13

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 826 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.5

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 8. 16. 25. 31. 35. 38. 37.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 15. 21. 29. 37. 42. 46. 47.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.4 105.1

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912018 INVEST 08/30/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 999.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.15 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.39 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.53 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -7.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.91 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912018 INVEST 08/30/18 18 UTC ##
## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#4 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 30, 2018 6:54 pm

Satellite data indicate that the circulation of a low pressure
system located about 450 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, has
become better defined today, but the associated showers and
thunderstorms remain disorganized. Additional gradual development
of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to
form this weekend or early next week while the system moves
west-northwestward away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#5 Postby bob rulz » Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:58 pm

I can't believe that we're on the verge of the O storm in the EPAC and it's not even September yet.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#6 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 31, 2018 2:01 pm

* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912018 08/31/18 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 51 61 74 84 97 101 105
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 51 61 74 84 97 101 105
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 31 36 42 49 59 70 77 82
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 12 9 10 12 9 12 8 9 17 17 15 10 13
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 3 3 2 0 0 5 3 6 7 6 3
SHEAR DIR 33 18 20 26 44 16 17 37 47 29 22 32 51
SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 28.8
POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 164 165 165 163 161 160 159 160 160 160 154
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.2 -51.9 -51.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.9
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 5
700-500 MB RH 85 82 82 82 80 76 71 71 70 68 68 62 59
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 9 10 9 12 13 16 20 27 29 32
850 MB ENV VOR -8 -6 -1 -6 -11 -17 -16 -2 2 31 46 39 60
200 MB DIV 72 96 100 91 67 68 69 73 65 65 92 22 35
700-850 TADV 0 0 -4 -5 0 -5 -2 -3 -3 -6 -13 -13 -11
LAND (KM) 606 618 627 649 668 740 784 833 869 896 918 985 1105
LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.2 15.7 16.1 16.0 16.0 16.1 16.7 17.5 18.2
LONG(DEG W) 106.7 107.3 108.0 108.8 109.5 110.8 112.0 113.1 113.9 114.6 115.8 117.7 120.3
STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 7 7 6 4 3 5 8 12 13
HEAT CONTENT 39 35 29 24 22 24 27 29 24 17 10 9 29

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=584)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.6

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 7. 16. 25. 31. 35. 38. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -2. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 4. 9. 14. 24. 26. 31.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 26. 36. 49. 59. 72. 76. 80.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.9 106.7

** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912018 INVEST 08/31/18 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.91 7.8
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.51 4.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.27 1.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.62 4.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 2.6
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 5.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.89 -4.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.77 0.7

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.0% 21.3% 0.0% 0.0% 18.5% 21.3% 0.0%
Logistic: 4.0% 26.8% 16.3% 7.9% 2.0% 29.8% 46.8% 38.8%
Bayesian: 0.5% 5.8% 3.7% 0.8% 0.1% 2.4% 6.0% 9.9%
Consensus: 1.5% 18.5% 13.7% 2.9% 0.7% 16.9% 24.7% 16.2%
DTOPS: 1.0% 12.0% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% 13.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912018 INVEST 08/31/18 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#7 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 31, 2018 2:01 pm

Showers and thunderstorms, associated with a low pressure system
located several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico continue to show signs of organization. Additional
development is expected and a tropical depression is likely to form
later today or on Saturday while the system moves generally
west-northwestward, away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#8 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 31, 2018 5:04 pm

Probably classifiable now.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#9 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 31, 2018 5:19 pm

Agreed Yellow Evan.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E

#10 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:37 pm

Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with a low pressure system located about 400 miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Additional development of
this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form
tonight or on Saturday while the system moves west-northwestward
away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Re: EPAC: SEVENTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#11 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 31, 2018 9:35 pm

Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
900 PM MDT Fri Aug 31 2018

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system located a
little more than 400 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, has
developed organized deep convection and a well-defined center.
Therefore, the system now qualifies as a tropical depression, the
seventeenth one of the busy 2018 eastern North Pacific hurricane
season. The center of the system is estimated to be near the
northeastern portion of the deep convection based on recent
microwave data. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, in agreement
with a Dvorak classification from TAFB.

The initial motion of the depression is highly uncertain since it
only recently formed, but my best guess is 285/9. The system is
expected to move a little slower to the west-northwest or northwest
during the next couple of days while it remains to the south of a
weakness in the subtropical ridge. Beyond that time, the
subtropical ridge is expected to build to the north of the tropical
cyclone, and that should cause it to turn more westward and increase
in forward speed. The models agree on this overall scenario, but
there is a fair amount of cross-track (north-south) spread. The NHC
track forecast lies close to the middle of the guidance envelope
near the various consensus models.

The depression is currently experiencing some northeasterly shear,
and that should limit the strengthening process overnight. However,
the models show the upper-level pattern becoming quite favorable
this weekend. The expected decrease in shear combined with warm
SSTs and a moist environment should allow the system to steadily
strengthen for most of the forecast period. The NHC intensity
forecast is a little lower than the HCCA model in the short term,
but leans heavily on that guidance from 48 hours and beyond. It
should also be noted that the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF models all show
this system deepening significantly during the next several days,
which is a good indication that this cyclone will likely become
another significant hurricane.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 14.3N 108.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 15.0N 109.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 15.6N 110.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 16.1N 111.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 16.6N 112.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 17.0N 115.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 17.4N 118.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 18.3N 122.6W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: SEVENTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#12 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Aug 31, 2018 10:56 pm

Damn is all I have to say about this.

:froze:
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Re: EPAC: SEVENTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#13 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Aug 31, 2018 10:57 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:Damn is all I have to say about this.

:froze:

This is replicating the North Atlantics 2017 September. What a month the EPAC is having.
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Re: EPAC: SEVENTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#14 Postby Chris90 » Sat Sep 01, 2018 2:15 am

Honestly just sitting here waiting for that blurb from the NHC that states "Olivia has become the 6th Category 4 hurricane in the busy 2018 Eastern North Pacific hurricane season."
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I can't stand the rain..

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Re: EPAC: SEVENTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#15 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Sep 01, 2018 5:12 am

GFS trending much stronger... So far, a high-end TS (990 mb) at 06z (TAU 60) compared to 00z which depicted a weak TD/TS (1003 mb). Rolling.....
Last edited by xtyphooncyclonex on Sat Sep 01, 2018 5:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: SEVENTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#16 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 01, 2018 5:12 am

Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 01 2018

Recent microwave data and GOES-16 shortwave infrared imagery have
indicated that the depression consists of a broad low-level
circulation with the center exposed to the northeast of the
associated deep convection. Since the system is still rather
disorganized, and T-numbers have not increased, the maximum winds
remain 30 kt. Based on the 00Z suite of global models, it may be
another day or two before the depression becomes organized enough to
start strengthening. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF models in
particular show the center jumping around or re-forming during the
next 24 hours, with more significant deepening not occurring until
after 48 hours. Once the cyclone is able to consolidate, a
more robust intensification phase should occur since it will be
located over warm waters and in a relatively low-shear environment.
To account for the possible slow initial organization process, the
NHC intensity forecast has been decreased during the first 3 days or
so and is a little below the intensity consensus. After day 3, the
official forecast is largely unchanged from the previous one and is
closer to the intensity consensus and the HCCA model.

The depression still appears to be moving west-northwestward, or
285/9 kt, but that motion is uncertain given the poor organization.
As noted above, the center could jump around or re-form during the
next 24 hours, but overall the cyclone should move slowly toward the
west-northwest for the next 2 days, south of the subtropical ridge.
After that time, the ridge is expected to strengthen, which should
cause the system to move faster toward the west on days 3 through 5.
Since the model trackers are bouncing around so much during the
first 2 days of the forecast period, the NHC track forecast is not
much different from the previous forecast to maintain continuity,
although it is a little slower to be in line with the latest HCCA
solution.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 14.7N 109.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 15.2N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 15.6N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 16.0N 111.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 16.4N 113.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 16.6N 115.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 17.0N 119.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 18.0N 123.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: SEVENTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 01, 2018 10:03 am

Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
900 AM MDT Sat Sep 01 2018

A 0914Z AMSR microwave pass indicated that the low-level circulation
remains elongated northeast-to-southwest, with the alleged center
positioned northeast of the deepest convection. Although cloud tops
have cooled significant since the previous advisory, microwave
data indicate that the convection remains loosely organized
underneath the dense cirrus canopy. The initial intensity remains
30 kt for this advisory, which is just below the various satellite
intensity estimates.

The initial motion estimate is 290/08 kt. Although the center is
somewhat ill-defined, the models remain remarkably in good
agreement on the cyclone moving west-northwestward for the next
24-36 h, and then turning westward as the system encounters a
strong subtropical ridge extending westward from central Mexico
across the eastern North Pacific. The NHC new track forecast is
similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the HCCA
and FSSE consensus models.

The ECMWF model is forecasting the shear along the cyclone's track
to decrease to less than 10 kt by 12 h and beyond. The combination
of the low shear and warm waters beneath the cyclone supports at
least steady strengthening. The only hindering factor early on is
when the inner-core wind field finally contracts and becomes better
defined to allow for more significant intensification to begin. The
intensity forecast follows the consensus models HCCA and IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 14.9N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 15.3N 110.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 15.7N 111.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 16.2N 112.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 16.4N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 16.4N 116.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 16.8N 120.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 18.0N 125.2W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: SEVENTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#18 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 01, 2018 12:37 pm

Should abate by tonight but for now this remains quite sheared. Probably a minimal tropical storm though.
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Re: EPAC: SEVENTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#19 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 01, 2018 1:26 pm

01/1745 UTC 14.7N 110.7W T2.0/2.0 17E -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: SEVENTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#20 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 01, 2018 4:00 pm

Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172018
300 PM MDT Sat Sep 01 2018

ASCAT scatterometer overpasses at 1625Z and 1704Z indicated that
the depression's inner-core wind field remains elongated
northeast-to-southwest, with a second fully exposed low-level swirl
located near the northeastern end of the wind field. There was also
a fairly large field of 27-29 kt surface wind vectors located in the
southern quadrant. Various Dvorak satellite intensity estimates have
remained unchanged since the previous advisory, so the initial
intensity is being held at 30 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 285/10 kt. Most of the
global and regional models take the cyclone west-northwestward for
the next 24 h or so, and then move it westward thereafter. The
exception is the new GFS model run, which takes the system northward
for 36 h before turning it back westward. The GFS appears to have
keyed in on the aforementioned exposed low-level swirl noted in the
ASCAT and recent visible satellite data, and makes it the primary
circulation center. The official forecast track calls for the main
low-level center to remain/develop closer to the stronger deep
convection and strongest low-level winds and associated vorticity.
The more northern track of the GFS model is being discounted, but it
has strongly skewed the various consensus tracks farther to the
north. As a result, the new official forecast track lies south of
the consensus model HCCA, and is close to the previous advisory
track and a blend of the more westerly HWRF and ECMWF models.

Due to the GFS model's more northerly track, the GFS-based shear
computations have a high bias. In contrast, the more southerly ECMWF
model has continued to forecast much weaker shear of 10-15 kt for
the next 72 h, followed by decreasing shear after that. These more
modest shear conditions, combined with very warm SSTs greater than
28.5 deg C, should allow for at least steady strengthening to occur.
The only hindering factor early on remains when the inner-core wind
field contracts down and becomes better defined, which would result
in sooner and more significant intensification to occur than is
indicated by the official forecast. For now, the intensity forecast
remains above the consensus models HCCA and IVCN due to the very low
bias induced by the GFS-based SHIPS and LGEM intensity models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 14.9N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 15.3N 111.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 15.7N 112.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 16.0N 113.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 16.2N 115.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 16.3N 118.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 16.9N 122.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 18.3N 127.3W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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