CPAC: OLIVIA - Post-Tropical

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Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Hurricane

#261 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:08 pm

johngaltfla wrote:Good luck to you guys out there. It's been a nutso season thus far and with the Atlantic kicking up, I know sometimes Hawaii gets overlooked. Hopefully it remains a fast moving storm so rainfall amounts don't pile up over you!


Thank you for your kind words!
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Hurricane

#262 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:11 pm

...OLIVIA BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 149.1W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM ENE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


I would've kept it @ Cat.1 for the sake of the public's sanity. It's possible it fluctuates between a strong TS and a Cat.1 for the next 24 hours.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Hurricane

#263 Postby Ntxw » Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:14 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
...OLIVIA BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 149.1W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM ENE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


I would've kept it @ Cat.1 for the sake of the public's sanity. It's possible it fluctuates between a strong TS and a Cat.1 for the next 24 hours.


We'll have to watch her closely overnight. She'll be moving into much warmer waters. The saving grace if you count it is that she is moving southwest, which when there is shear around tends to have a more pervasive effect on TCs.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Hurricane

#264 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:38 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
...OLIVIA BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 149.1W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM ENE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


I would've kept it @ Cat.1 for the sake of the public's sanity. It's possible it fluctuates between a strong TS and a Cat.1 for the next 24 hours.


We'll have to watch her closely overnight. She'll be moving into much warmer waters. The saving grace if you count it is that she is moving southwest, which when there is shear around tends to have a more pervasive effect on TCs.


Yup I hope so. Problem here is that these systems take too long to degenerate. HWRF and HMON drop this down to 45kts upon approach and then strengthen the winds back up to 60kts/50kts.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Hurricane

#265 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:44 pm

10/2330 UTC 21.9N 149.1W T3.5/4.5 OLIVIA -- Central Pacific
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Hurricane

#266 Postby Huaka » Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:40 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Looks like some shear affect west and east quads of the system:

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Also seeing outflow expand to the north and south of the system. So we'll see how it does now that it's over warmer waters.


It looks like a flattened donut. Hah.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#267 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 9:40 pm

Olivia can actually be the best looking storm to reach Hawaii from the east if she can hold the current structure until possible landfall.

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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#268 Postby OahuWahine » Mon Sep 10, 2018 9:51 pm

Tropical storm warning extended to include Oahu. Tropical storm watch now for Kauai. Flash flood watch until Thursday for all islands.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#269 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 10, 2018 9:52 pm

OahuWahine wrote:Tropical storm warning extended to include Oahu. Tropical storm watch now for Kauai. Flash flood watch until Thursday for all islands.

Yeah it was due since they shifted the cone north.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#270 Postby OahuWahine » Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:03 pm

It'll be interesting to see the next GFS and Euro runs. I wonder if they will meet somewhere in the middle.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#271 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:58 pm

LLC not exposed for now.

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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#272 Postby OahuWahine » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:05 pm

What causes this increase in intensity right before landfall on the latest GFS run?

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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#273 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:06 pm

OahuWahine wrote:What causes this increase in intensity right before landfall on the latest GFS run?

[img]http://i67.tinypic.com/qq5tgw.jpg[/mg]


Not sure but the HMON and HWRF show it as well. CMC rolling. Watching it because it's been following the Euro closely.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#274 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:13 pm

00z CMC shows a Molokai landfall.

00z ICON Molokai landfall.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#275 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:14 pm

Looks like Recon is in the air.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#276 Postby Mauistorms » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:49 pm

Looks like its trying to hang in there. I don't see the LLC exposed anymore and circulation looks like its consistent...
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#277 Postby Huaka » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:36 am

Mauistorms wrote:Looks like its trying to hang in there. I don't see the LLC exposed anymore and circulation looks like its consistent...


Wow, she's hanging on. Surprised. Has she started the WSW movement yet?
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#278 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:40 am

00z Euro landfall between Molokai and Maui.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#279 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:53 am

215
URPN12 KNHC 110646
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP172018
A. 11/06:07:20Z
B. 21.85 deg N 149.71 deg W
C. 700 mb 3049 m
D. 996 mb
E. 115 deg 15 kt
F. OPEN SW
G. C6
H. 48 kt
I. 123 deg 5 nm 06:05:30Z
J. 350 deg 31 kt
K. 203 deg 28 nm 05:56:30Z
L. 56 kt
M. 055 deg 20 nm 06:15:00Z
N. 149 deg 61 kt
O. 055 deg 20 nm 06:15:00Z
P. 11 C / 3051 m
Q. 12 C / 3041 m
R. 8 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 2 nm
U. AF300 0617E OLIVIA OB 04
MAX FL WIND 61 KT 055 / 20 NM 06:15:00Z
;
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#280 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:54 am

Exposed center is now embedded within the CDO.
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