CPAC: OLIVIA - Post-Tropical

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Mauistorms
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#281 Postby Mauistorms » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:35 am

[quote="Kingarabian"]Exposed center is now embedded within the CDO.

Kingarabian, if you dont mind explaining...what does that mean for the storm? My google searches have not helped me understand.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#282 Postby Mauistorms » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:43 am

[quote="Kingarabian"]Exposed center is now embedded within the CDO.

Kingarabian, if you dont mind explaining...what does that mean for the storm? My google searches have not helped me understand.
Mahalo!
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#283 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:01 am

Mauistorms wrote:
Kingarabian, if you dont mind explaining...what does that mean for the storm? My google searches have not helped me understand.
Mahalo!


Earlier today shear weakened the system and blew off most of the convection near the center of the storm. The eyewall collapses and the LLC (low level circulation) slowly becomes exposed which is a big flag that the system has considerably weakened or is undergoing major weakening. So as of late, IR imagery and microwave imagery show that convection has built over the LLC and a CDO has formed. A CDO developing means the system is reorganizing and re-trying to build its core.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Recon

#284 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:02 am

760
URPN15 KNHC 110747
AF300 0617E OLIVIA HDOB 24 20180911
073730 2215N 15024W 6963 03162 0076 +081 +049 053044 046 042 000 03
073800 2214N 15023W 6970 03146 0084 +069 +050 065052 055 038 000 00
073830 2213N 15022W 6956 03161 0079 +065 +050 062055 057 038 000 03
073900 2212N 15021W 6974 03131 0065 +071 +057 066056 067 035 006 00
073930 2211N 15019W 6959 03128 0064 +059 //// 076066 078 038 008 01
074000 2209N 15019W 6991 03102 0056 +068 +063 069062 065 038 004 00
074030 2208N 15018W 6950 03161 0040 +086 +057 055055 060 042 002 03
074100 2206N 15017W 6967 03144 0030 +101 +052 032047 051 041 002 03
074130 2204N 15016W 6973 03139 0016 +116 +053 018043 048 026 001 03
074200 2203N 15014W 6972 03131 0009 +119 +056 004042 044 079 002 03
074230 2203N 15012W 6973 03129 0035 +091 +065 004044 045 079 002 00
074300 2202N 15011W 6975 03119 0042 +080 +065 003048 051 081 013 03
074330 2202N 15009W 6968 03121 0059 +062 //// 352049 052 064 030 05
074400 2201N 15007W 6949 03150 0032 +081 +081 018030 046 064 011 00
074430 2201N 15005W 6974 03110 9992 +111 +075 046029 032 061 002 03
074500 2200N 15003W 6963 03113 9986 +101 +091 065029 030 054 002 00
074530 2159N 15002W 6968 03101 9963 +115 +089 077024 029 036 002 00
074600 2157N 15001W 6987 03071 9961 +115 +090 077017 023 025 000 03
074630 2156N 15001W 6970 03091 9959 +115 +085 086005 014 018 000 03
074700 2154N 15000W 6960 03108 9974 +106 +091 319009 014 016 000 03
$$
;


Stronger?
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Recon

#285 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:05 am

Kingarabian wrote:760
URPN15 KNHC 110747
AF300 0617E OLIVIA HDOB 24 20180911
073730 2215N 15024W 6963 03162 0076 +081 +049 053044 046 042 000 03
073800 2214N 15023W 6970 03146 0084 +069 +050 065052 055 038 000 00
073830 2213N 15022W 6956 03161 0079 +065 +050 062055 057 038 000 03
073900 2212N 15021W 6974 03131 0065 +071 +057 066056 067 035 006 00
073930 2211N 15019W 6959 03128 0064 +059 //// 076066 078 038 008 01
074000 2209N 15019W 6991 03102 0056 +068 +063 069062 065 038 004 00
074030 2208N 15018W 6950 03161 0040 +086 +057 055055 060 042 002 03
074100 2206N 15017W 6967 03144 0030 +101 +052 032047 051 041 002 03
074130 2204N 15016W 6973 03139 0016 +116 +053 018043 048 026 001 03
074200 2203N 15014W 6972 03131 0009 +119 +056 004042 044 079 002 03
074230 2203N 15012W 6973 03129 0035 +091 +065 004044 045 079 002 00
074300 2202N 15011W 6975 03119 0042 +080 +065 003048 051 081 013 03
074330 2202N 15009W 6968 03121 0059 +062 //// 352049 052 064 030 05
074400 2201N 15007W 6949 03150 0032 +081 +081 018030 046 064 011 00
074430 2201N 15005W 6974 03110 9992 +111 +075 046029 032 061 002 03
074500 2200N 15003W 6963 03113 9986 +101 +091 065029 030 054 002 00
074530 2159N 15002W 6968 03101 9963 +115 +089 077024 029 036 002 00
074600 2157N 15001W 6987 03071 9961 +115 +090 077017 023 025 000 03
074630 2156N 15001W 6970 03091 9959 +115 +085 086005 014 018 000 03
074700 2154N 15000W 6960 03108 9974 +106 +091 319009 014 016 000 03
$$
;


Stronger?


Yes, no question about it. It appears to be a hurricane again with winds around 75 knots based on the smrf or 65 knots based on the flight level. I'd mix the two and go 70 knots.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#286 Postby OahuWahine » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:06 am

073900 2212N 15021W 6974 03131 0065 +071 +057 066056 067 035 006 00
073930 2211N 15019W 6959 03128 0064 +059 //// 076066 078 038 008 01
074000 2209N 15019W 6991 03102 0056 +068 +063 069062 065 038 004 00


My knowledge of recon data is incredibly limited, but aren't those hurricane force winds?
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#287 Postby Mauistorms » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:07 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Mauistorms wrote:
Kingarabian, if you dont mind explaining...what does that mean for the storm? My google searches have not helped me understand.
Mahalo!


Earlier today shear cut weakened the system and blew off most of the convection near the center of the storm. The eyewall collapses and the LLC (low level circulation) slowly becomes exposed which is a big flag that the system has considerably weakened or is undergoing major weakening. So as of late, IR imagery and microwave imagery show that convection has built over the LLC and a CDO has formed. A CDO developing means the system is reorganizing and re-trying to build its core.


Thank you so much for explaining that! It is truly fascinating. Mother nature!
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#288 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:08 am

OahuWahine wrote:
073900 2212N 15021W 6974 03131 0065 +071 +057 066056 067 035 006 00
073930 2211N 15019W 6959 03128 0064 +059 //// 076066 078 038 008 01
074000 2209N 15019W 6991 03102 0056 +068 +063 069062 065 038 004 00


My knowledge of recon data is incredibly limited, but aren't those hurricane force winds?



Yes...The smrf also supports this as a 75-80 knot storm. If they choose to mix the two they'll need to go 70-75 knots.

78 knt * .9 would be around 70 knots.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#289 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:12 am

I wonder what the CPHC is gonna do here.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Recon

#290 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:23 am

Sciencerocks wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:760
URPN15 KNHC 110747
AF300 0617E OLIVIA HDOB 24 20180911
073730 2215N 15024W 6963 03162 0076 +081 +049 053044 046 042 000 03
073800 2214N 15023W 6970 03146 0084 +069 +050 065052 055 038 000 00
073830 2213N 15022W 6956 03161 0079 +065 +050 062055 057 038 000 03
073900 2212N 15021W 6974 03131 0065 +071 +057 066056 067 035 006 00
073930 2211N 15019W 6959 03128 0064 +059 //// 076066 078 038 008 01
074000 2209N 15019W 6991 03102 0056 +068 +063 069062 065 038 004 00
074030 2208N 15018W 6950 03161 0040 +086 +057 055055 060 042 002 03
074100 2206N 15017W 6967 03144 0030 +101 +052 032047 051 041 002 03
074130 2204N 15016W 6973 03139 0016 +116 +053 018043 048 026 001 03
074200 2203N 15014W 6972 03131 0009 +119 +056 004042 044 079 002 03
074230 2203N 15012W 6973 03129 0035 +091 +065 004044 045 079 002 00
074300 2202N 15011W 6975 03119 0042 +080 +065 003048 051 081 013 03
074330 2202N 15009W 6968 03121 0059 +062 //// 352049 052 064 030 05
074400 2201N 15007W 6949 03150 0032 +081 +081 018030 046 064 011 00
074430 2201N 15005W 6974 03110 9992 +111 +075 046029 032 061 002 03
074500 2200N 15003W 6963 03113 9986 +101 +091 065029 030 054 002 00
074530 2159N 15002W 6968 03101 9963 +115 +089 077024 029 036 002 00
074600 2157N 15001W 6987 03071 9961 +115 +090 077017 023 025 000 03
074630 2156N 15001W 6970 03091 9959 +115 +085 086005 014 018 000 03
074700 2154N 15000W 6960 03108 9974 +106 +091 319009 014 016 000 03
$$
;


Stronger?


Yes, no question about it. It appears to be a hurricane again with winds around 75 knots based on the smrf or 65 knots based on the flight level. I'd mix the two and go 70 knots.



509
URPN12 KNHC 110812
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP172018
A. 11/07:46:40Z
B. 21.92 deg N 150.01 deg W
C. 700 mb 3057 m
D. 998 mb
E. 090 deg 19 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 79 kt
I. 294 deg 11 nm 07:42:30Z
J. 075 deg 78 kt
K. 306 deg 21 nm 07:39:30Z
L. 43 kt
M. 142 deg 10 nm 07:49:30Z
N. 211 deg 43 kt
O. 141 deg 12 nm 07:50:00Z
P. 6 C / 3045 m
Q. 12 C / 3036 m
R. 8 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF300 0617E OLIVIA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 78 KT 309 / 22 NM 07:39:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 12 C 300 / 15 NM FROM FL CNTR

Pretty high pressure for a hurricane.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#291 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:25 am

Where is this thing going:

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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#292 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:47 am

CPHC decided to keep this a TS.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#293 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:50 am

Kingarabian wrote:CPHC decided to keep this a TS.



Gots to be kidding? :eek: Tens of thousands of dollars are probably spent on each recon mission and yet they choose not to use the data collected. wow.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#294 Postby Huaka » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:53 am

Kingarabian wrote:CPHC decided to keep this a TS.


I think CPHC should've raised it to a hurricane. At least people would take it more seriously. Most people I talked to today are all like, "Eh, just one storm. Gonna be NOTHING!" *sigh*
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#295 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:01 am

000
WTPA45 PHFO 110854
TCDCP5

Tropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number 43
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP172018
1100 PM HST Mon Sep 10 2018

Hurricane Hunters from the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron are
again penetrating Olivia's core this evening, and found the low-
level center further east than anticipated. Some conflicting data
exists as to the current intensity, as the central pressure has
risen, but winds in the northwest quadrant were stronger than
earlier today.
A blend of the data supports maintaining the initial
intensity at 60 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate for this advisory is 280/8 kt, with
Olivia still being steered by a mid-level ridge centered to the
distant northeast. Track guidance continues to indicate that a mid-
level ridge building to the northwest of Olivia will induce a
motion toward the west and west-southwest, with this expected to
begin on Tuesday. At 72 hours and beyond, an upper level low is
expected to develop between the ridge and Olivia, imparting a
west-northwest motion on the tropical cyclone. The updated track
forecast is shifted just slightly to the south of the previous,
mostly after day 2, so the track forecast near the islands has
changed little. Notable along-track differences between the GFS and
ECMWF/HWRF exist, with the ECMWF/HWRF continuing to bring Olivia
over the islands about 6-12 hours faster. The official forecast is
on the north side of the guidance envelope, is close to the
multi-model consensus TVCE, with the short-term forward speed a
blend of the GFS and ECMWF/HWRF.

Shear is expected to increase over the next 24 to 48 hours while
SSTs increase to greater than 28C. The shear is expected to induce
slow but steady weakening, and the updated intensity forecast is
close to the previous and closely follows the multi-model intensity
consensus IVCN.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Resist the temptation to make comparisons between Lane and
Olivia. Although Lane was a stronger tropical cyclone near the
islands, it did not bring direct core impacts to the state. In some
areas, Olivia could bring significantly worse impacts than those
brought by Lane. Those impacts could include intense flooding
rainfall, damaging winds, and large and dangerous surf.

2. It is important to not focus on the exact forecast track
and intensity when planning for Olivia. Regardless of the track
that Olivia takes as it approaches the islands, significant impacts
can be expected away from the center. In particular, the
mountainous terrain of Hawaii can produce localized areas of
strongly enhanced wind gusts and rainfall.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 22.0N 150.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 21.7N 151.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 21.4N 154.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 20.9N 156.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 20.3N 158.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 19.7N 163.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 20.5N 168.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 22.0N 172.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Birchard


No disrespect but...
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#296 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:04 am

Sciencerocks wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:CPHC decided to keep this a TS.



Gots to be kidding? :eek: Tens of thousands of dollars are probably spent on each recon mission and yet they choose not to use the data collected. wow.

Like I said previously, they should've kept it as a Cat.1 for continuity's sake. I mentioned there was a strong possibility that the system will oscillate between strong TS status and Cat.1 status. They probably didn't want to upgrade the system back to a hurricane to cause panic only for the system to weaken again.

Hurricane hunters about to make a pass again so we'll see.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#297 Postby Huaka » Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:04 am

Were any of the readings flagged or anything to suggest them not raising the intensity?
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#298 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:05 am

Huaka wrote:Were any of the readings flagged or anything to suggest them not raising the intensity?

Some were, but there were enough unflagged readings for this to at least be bumped to 65kts--75mph.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#299 Postby Huaka » Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:13 am

I'm concerned that they haven't really closed down schools or businesses yet. Don't know how conditions will be but sounds a bit precarious to be out in the upcoming weather.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#300 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:17 am

Huaka wrote:I'm concerned that they haven't really closed down schools or businesses yet. Don't know how conditions will be but sounds a bit precarious to be out in the upcoming weather.


Olivia's motion continues to be due west. The longer it keeps this up, the more there's a risk to Molokai/Oahu.
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