CPAC: OLIVIA - Post-Tropical

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OahuWahine
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#301 Postby OahuWahine » Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:18 am

Huaka wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:CPHC decided to keep this a TS.


I think CPHC should've raised it to a hurricane. At least people would take it more seriously. Most people I talked to today are all like, "Eh, just one storm. Gonna be NOTHING!" *sigh*


I had to run a few errands today and the thing I heard the most was "It's gonna fall apart just like Lane". Not looking so likely.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#302 Postby OahuWahine » Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:21 am

Huaka wrote:I'm concerned that they haven't really closed down schools or businesses yet. Don't know how conditions will be but sounds a bit precarious to be out in the upcoming weather.


I had the same thought. They should have at the very least canceled school for Maui.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#303 Postby OahuWahine » Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:49 am

The recon mission is either over or having technical difficulties as it's been stuck in the same spot for a while now.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#304 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:57 am

OahuWahine wrote:The recon mission is either over or having technical difficulties as it's been stuck in the same spot for a while now.

It's updating, but slowly. 999mb this pass winds and 55kt winds in SW quadrant.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#305 Postby Huaka » Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:58 am

OahuWahine wrote:The recon mission is either over or having technical difficulties as it's been stuck in the same spot for a while now.


One time they had server connection issues with Lane, so that could be another possibility...
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#306 Postby Huaka » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:23 pm

Very sheared looking this morning. I wonder if it'll hold up until it makes landfall? I wonder if the lower in latitude she gets, the more potential she'll have to produce more thunderstorms? Since the water gets warmer.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#307 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:34 pm

Huaka wrote:Very sheared looking this morning. I wonder if it'll hold up until it makes landfall? I wonder if the lower in latitude she gets, the more potential she'll have to produce more thunderstorms? Since the water gets warmer.


Yup, fortunately. Depending on this next pass it looks like it's down to 60mph. Still a potent system if it manages to make landfall as a TS, especially for all the untested structures situated around Hawaii.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#308 Postby WeatherNewbie » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:46 pm

what time are they projecting the initial landfall? i haven't had time to look at the models today.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#309 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:02 pm

WeatherNewbie wrote:what time are they projecting the initial landfall? i haven't had time to look at the models today.


Based on HST, the landfall has been pushed back to tomorrow morning around 4Am if it's going to be a Maui landfall. If it's going to be Molokai/Oahu it'll be tomorrow noon.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#310 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:04 pm

Don't let the sheared look fool you. Per recon there is a large swath of upper end tropical storm force winds in the NE/N/NW quadrants. HMON and HWRF are showing nearly 50kts of winds at the point of landfall.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#311 Postby WeatherNewbie » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:08 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
WeatherNewbie wrote:what time are they projecting the initial landfall? i haven't had time to look at the models today.


Based on HST, the landfall has been pushed back to tomorrow morning around 4Am if it's going to be a Maui landfall. If it's going to be Molokai/Oahu it'll be tomorrow noon.


thanks! we are headed to maui on friday. i know it will clear the area by then, but i just wanted to know how soon afterwards we would be coming into it. here's hoping it passes with minimal impact for all.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#312 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:17 pm

WeatherNewbie wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
WeatherNewbie wrote:what time are they projecting the initial landfall? i haven't had time to look at the models today.


Based on HST, the landfall has been pushed back to tomorrow morning around 4Am if it's going to be a Maui landfall. If it's going to be Molokai/Oahu it'll be tomorrow noon.


thanks! we are headed to maui on friday. i know it will clear the area by then, but i just wanted to know how soon afterwards we would be coming into it. here's hoping it passes with minimal impact for all.


Just be wary of flash flooding since rain is going to linger around till Saturday I believe. I would avoid Hana for the rest of the week since the soil is already saturated from Lane, and rainfall from Olivia will only increase the chances of mud slides.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#313 Postby WeatherNewbie » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:22 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
WeatherNewbie wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Based on HST, the landfall has been pushed back to tomorrow morning around 4Am if it's going to be a Maui landfall. If it's going to be Molokai/Oahu it'll be tomorrow noon.


thanks! we are headed to maui on friday. i know it will clear the area by then, but i just wanted to know how soon afterwards we would be coming into it. here's hoping it passes with minimal impact for all.


Just be wary of flash flooding since rain is going to linger around till Saturday I believe. I would avoid Hana for the rest of the week since the soil is already saturated from Lane, and rainfall from Olivia will only increase the chances of mud slides.


appreciate the advice!
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#314 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:32 pm

Olivia is down to a naked swirl with a few light showers around the weak LLC with barely TS force winds close to it.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#315 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:33 pm

NDG wrote:Olivia is down to a naked swirl with a few light showers around the weak LLC with barely TS force winds close to it.


The 50kts winds in the northern quads would count towards the intensity right?
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#316 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:33 pm

The magical Hawaiian shield once again killed off a hurricane.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#317 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:33 pm

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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#318 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:35 pm


Those stronger winds are trade winds well away from the center. They are not associated with the system itself
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#319 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:36 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NDG wrote:Olivia is down to a naked swirl with a few light showers around the weak LLC with barely TS force winds close to it.


The 50kts winds in the northern quads would count towards the intensity right?


Not sure to tell you the truth.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#320 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:37 pm

supercane4867 wrote:

Those stronger winds are trade winds well away from the center. They are not associated with the system itself

Wow 50kt trade winds?
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