CPAC: OLIVIA - Post-Tropical

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supercane4867
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#321 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:41 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:

Those stronger winds are trade winds well away from the center. They are not associated with the system itself

Wow 50kt trade winds?


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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#322 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:49 pm

Also these systems are susceptible to random convection bursts. They can be devoid of convection near the center and then out of nowhere show a big blowup of convection. HWRF is hinting at something like that in its past 3 runs.

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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#323 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:51 pm

593
URPN12 KNHC 112048
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP172018
A. 11/20:16:40Z
B. 21.38 deg N 152.64 deg W
C. 850 mb 1474 m
D. 1007 mb
E. 155 deg 8 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 35 kt
I. 309 deg 77 nm 19:52:00Z
J. 067 deg 45 kt
K. 309 deg 88 nm 19:48:30Z
L. 45 kt
M. 049 deg 71 nm 20:39:30Z
N. 119 deg 43 kt
O. 049 deg 66 nm 20:38:00Z
P. 16 C / 1531 m
Q. 21 C / 1533 m
R. 12 C / NA
S. 1345 / 8
T. 0.02 / 5 nm
U. AF300 0717E OLIVIA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 52 KT 322 / 79 NM 19:51:00Z
;
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#324 Postby Huaka » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:52 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Also these systems are susceptible to random convection bursts. They can be devoid of convection near the center and then out of nowhere show a big blowup of convection. HWRF is hinting at something like that in its past 3 runs.

https://i.imgur.com/SKhALhT.gif


Olivia had her LLC exposed yesterday too and then there was a large burst of convection to cover it back up later on. So... maybe that'll happen again?
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#325 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:54 pm

...OLIVIA SPEEDS UP AND IS CLOSING IN ON THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...
...INCREASING WINDS AND SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 152.3W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM E OF KAHULUI HAWAII
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#326 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:59 pm

:uarrow: Not surprised they left it at 60 mph, being cautious just in case it fires back up once again tonight as the HWRF has been persistent on.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#327 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:00 pm

Huaka wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Also these systems are susceptible to random convection bursts. They can be devoid of convection near the center and then out of nowhere show a big blowup of convection. HWRF is hinting at something like that in its past 3 runs.

https://i.imgur.com/SKhALhT.gif


Olivia had her LLC exposed yesterday too and then there was a large burst of convection to cover it back up later on. So... maybe that'll happen again?


Yeah it's a possibility, especially with 28C waters in its path.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#328 Postby Huaka » Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:51 pm

Looks like she's starting to travel WSW now.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#329 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:52 pm

Huaka wrote:Looks like she's starting to travel WSW now.


CPHC track shows a landfall between Molokai or Maui this evening. Damn we might get our first modern recorded hit from the east...
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#330 Postby OahuWahine » Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:05 pm

I'm having a hard time understanding why school was canceled for only Maui county tomorrow and not Oahu. Even if the center tracks over Maui, that isn't where all the wind and rain is, right? I would assume that Oahu has just as good of a shot at getting some of the bad weather as Maui does. Are they really suggesting we send our kids off to school with 40-50 mph winds (even if it's just gusts by then) and flooding rain?

The CPHC keeps stressing in their discussions that this will have more impacts than Lane did but for Lane school was canceled for 2 days!
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#331 Postby Mauistorms » Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:11 pm

OahuWahine wrote:I'm having a hard time understanding why school was canceled for only Maui county tomorrow and not Oahu. Even if the center tracks over Maui, that isn't where all the wind and rain is, right? I would assume that Oahu has just as good of a shot at getting some of the bad weather as Maui does. Are they really suggesting we send our kids off to school with 40-50 mph winds (even if it's just gusts by then) and flooding rain?

The CPHC keeps stressing in their discussions that this will have more impacts than Lane did but for Lane school was canceled for 2 days!

I think that Oahu Schools will be closed tomorrow. They just haven't announced it yet.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#332 Postby OahuWahine » Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:17 pm

Mauistorms wrote:
OahuWahine wrote:I'm having a hard time understanding why school was canceled for only Maui county tomorrow and not Oahu. Even if the center tracks over Maui, that isn't where all the wind and rain is, right? I would assume that Oahu has just as good of a shot at getting some of the bad weather as Maui does. Are they really suggesting we send our kids off to school with 40-50 mph winds (even if it's just gusts by then) and flooding rain?

The CPHC keeps stressing in their discussions that this will have more impacts than Lane did but for Lane school was canceled for 2 days!

I think that Oahu Schools will be closed tomorrow. They just haven't announced it yet.


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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#333 Postby Mauistorms » Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:23 pm

OahuWahine wrote:
Mauistorms wrote:
OahuWahine wrote:I'm having a hard time understanding why school was canceled for only Maui county tomorrow and not Oahu. Even if the center tracks over Maui, that isn't where all the wind and rain is, right? I would assume that Oahu has just as good of a shot at getting some of the bad weather as Maui does. Are they really suggesting we send our kids off to school with 40-50 mph winds (even if it's just gusts by then) and flooding rain?

The CPHC keeps stressing in their discussions that this will have more impacts than Lane did but for Lane school was canceled for 2 days!

I think that Oahu Schools will be closed tomorrow. They just haven't announced it yet.


http://i67.tinypic.com/1zoc3o9.png

Maybe they will change it after the 5 pm update? Hope so.. I agree with you that I wouldn't send the kids off with flooded streets etc.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#334 Postby Sanibel » Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:40 pm

Pretty good naked spiral headed towards Maui...
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#335 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:06 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Huaka wrote:Looks like she's starting to travel WSW now.


CPHC track shows a landfall between Molokai or Maui this evening. Damn we might get our first modern recorded hit from the east...


Good luck Kingarbian... Perfect TS for watching, hope it doesn't cause to many problems for the islands... :flag:
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#336 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:31 pm

Blown Away wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Huaka wrote:Looks like she's starting to travel WSW now.


CPHC track shows a landfall between Molokai or Maui this evening. Damn we might get our first modern recorded hit from the east...


Good luck Kingarbian... Perfect TS for watching, hope it doesn't cause to many problems for the islands... :flag:


Thank you. Hopefully most of the TS force winds stay away.
:flag:
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#337 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:32 pm

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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#338 Postby Huaka » Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:43 pm

Still blue skies down here, maybe a touch more clouds. Although nothing's supposed to really happen until late tonight according to CPHC.
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#339 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:48 pm

Huaka wrote:Still blue skies down here, maybe a touch more clouds. Although nothing's supposed to really happen until late tonight according to CPHC.


Strongest winds are north of the system. Winds will likely pick up after it makes landfall over Maui
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Re: EPAC: OLIVIA - Tropical Storm

#340 Postby Mauistorms » Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:55 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Huaka wrote:Still blue skies down here, maybe a touch more clouds. Although nothing's supposed to really happen until late tonight according to CPHC.


Strongest winds are north of the system. Winds will likely pick up after it makes landfall over Maui


Seems to be moving awfully fast. What time is landfall predicted for Maui?
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