ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4381 Postby hurricaneCW » Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:58 pm

Here comes the flooding disaster. She's barely moving and should stay that way for the next 3 days.

Inner eye really tightening, could be due to frictional land effects.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4382 Postby artist » Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:59 pm

ABC11 EyewitnessNews Retweeted
Chris Hohmann
Chris Hohmann
@HohmannABC11
·
14m
Already 12.5” of rain at Atlantic Beach. That’s alarming, considering how much longer they’re going to have to deal with
#florence

#ABC11
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4383 Postby Ken711 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:59 pm

NHC update:

11:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 13
Location: 34.0°N 76.8°W
Moving: NW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 956 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4384 Postby jasons » Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:00 pm

Harvey was 130mph/115kt at landfall with higher gusts, so the 80mph gusts Jeff is experiencing are certainly less. Still, this will be a devastating storm when it's all said and done, especially from the surge and flooding.

Can we get back on topic now please?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4385 Postby Blinhart » Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:00 pm

PavelGaborik10 wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
PavelGaborik10 wrote:
Um if you expect this thing to be at this intensity 2-4 days from now I'm not sure what to tell you.

I was speaking wind wise, the winds have been pretty underwhelming on the streams in watching.


110MPH is totally lower than 140 MPH, so yeah it isn't as intense as Harvey.


Except Harvey wasn't 140 MPH.


My bad, it was 130 with wind gusts up to 155, and this one is now down to 90.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4386 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:00 pm

PavelGaborik10 wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
PavelGaborik10 wrote:
Um if you expect this thing to be at this intensity 2-4 days from now I'm not sure what to tell you.

I was speaking wind wise, the winds have been pretty underwhelming on the streams in watching.


110MPH is totally lower than 140 MPH, so yeah it isn't as intense as Harvey.


Except Harvey wasn't 140 MPH.

Harvey was 140mph. Initially 130, but upped in post-storm analysis
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Advisories

#4387 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:00 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 59
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
...THREAT OF FRESHWATER FLOODING WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 76.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES



Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 59
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018

Radar imagery and data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
flight indicate that Florence has an inner eye that is open on the
east side, and a secondary wind maximum that has already begun to
spread inland across southeastern North Carolina. The highest
flight-level wind (102 kt) was actually measured within the outer
band that is moving onshore in the Wilmington area. However, the
highest SFMR-measured wind was 73 kt, and the highest land
observation so far was a sustained wind of 72 kt at Cape Lookout,
North Carolina. On top of that, NOAA Doppler radar velocities have
been running around 100 kt at about 5,000 feet. All of these data
support reducing the initial intensity to 80 kt, but based on the
higher flight-level winds, the gust factor is being set a little
higher than is typical for an 80-kt hurricane.

Florence has been wobbling a little since the previous advisory,
but the 12-hour motion is northwestward, or 305/5 kt. Nearly all
of the track models agree that Florence will turn westward or
west-southwestward during the next 36 hours, bringing the
hurricane's center inland over extreme southern North Carolina and
extreme eastern South Carolina Friday and Friday night. After 48
hours, Florence is expected to recurve across the western Carolinas
and the central Appalachian Mountains around a western Atlantic
ridge. No major changes were required to the NHC official track
forecast, and it is generally close to the multi-model consensus
aids. It should be noted that the ECMWF, HCCA, and Florida State
Superensemble still take Florence on a more southern track,
straddling the coast of South Carolina before turning inland.
While that is not shown by the official forecast, it cannot yet be
ruled out as a possibility.

Florence's intensity is not likely to change much in the 12 hours
or so it has left over water. Once the center moves inland, the
intensity is forecast to decrease. However, since a good portion
of Florence's circulation will remain over water for the next 36-48
hours, the NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the regular SHIPS
model (which assumes a storm staying over water) and the Decay-SHIPS
model (which assumes the storm has moved inland). Based on that,
Florence should weaken to a tropical storm just after 24 hours and
then below tropical storm strength after 48 hours.

Florence remains a large hurricane. Life-threatening storm surge,
heavy rainfall, and damaging wind will cover a large area regardless
of exactly where the center of Florence moves.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is already occurring along
portions of the North Carolina coast and will continue through
Friday. This surge is also likely along portions of the South
Carolina coast. The greatest storm surge inundation is expected
between Cape Fear and Cape Hatteras, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers and western Pamlico Sound.

2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged
significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas
and the southern and central Appalachians through early next week,
as Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and
moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are occurring along portions of
the North Carolina coast and are expected to spread to portions of
the South Carolina coast on Friday. Strong winds could also spread
inland into portions of the Carolinas over the next couple of days.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast,
and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week,
resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 34.0N 76.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 34.2N 77.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 34.0N 78.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
36H 15/1200Z 33.8N 79.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 16/0000Z 33.8N 80.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 17/0000Z 35.5N 82.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/0000Z 39.5N 82.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 19/0000Z 44.0N 72.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4388 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:00 pm

artist wrote:ABC11 EyewitnessNews Retweeted
Chris Hohmann
Chris Hohmann
@HohmannABC11
·
14m
Already 12.5” of rain at Atlantic Beach. That’s alarming, considering how much longer they’re going to have to deal with
#florence

#ABC11

We are going to be seeing some devastating photos when this is done.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4389 Postby artist » Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:01 pm

Mark Sudduth
@hurricanetrack
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11m
I recorded this just after setting up the camera in New Bern two nights ago. This will give you an idea of how high the camera is and then think about the fact that waves are splashing on it now.


Link: https://youtu.be/CY823oxvjKU
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4390 Postby Ken711 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:01 pm

Also from the NHC 11 update on the track.

It should be noted that the ECMWF, HCCA, and Florida State Superensemble still take Florence on a more southern track, straddling the coast of South Carolina before turning inland. While that is not shown by the official forecast, it cannot yet be ruled out as a possibility.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4391 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:02 pm

Blinhart wrote:
PavelGaborik10 wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
110MPH is totally lower than 140 MPH, so yeah it isn't as intense as Harvey.


Except Harvey wasn't 140 MPH.


My bad, it was 130 with wind gusts up to 155, and this one is now down to 90.


This storm wasn't 90 when I made that comment.

Definitely impressive how quick this storm weakened. With the new update these streams are making sense.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4392 Postby Blinhart » Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:05 pm

Sorry about getting into the back and forth, this storm might not have that much bad wind, but this system will be a serious flooding situation by both rain and surge.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4393 Postby artist » Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:05 pm

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4394 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:06 pm

Eye is getting very impressive from MHX, but then again it's also getting closer to the radar site. One of the most impressive eye shots of a non-major you'll see on radar.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4395 Postby hurricaneCW » Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:06 pm

PavelGaborik10 wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
PavelGaborik10 wrote:
Except Harvey wasn't 140 MPH.


My bad, it was 130 with wind gusts up to 155, and this one is now down to 90.


This storm wasn't 90 when I made that comment.

Definitely impressive how quick this storm weakened. With the new update these streams are making sense.


It's not your typical 90 mph hurricane. Pressures are still in the 950s and gusts are higher than what would normally be expected. The NHC also stated a 10 foot surge is occurring around Morehead City.

It's a combination of Sandy, Ike, and Harvey post landfall.
Last edited by hurricaneCW on Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:08 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4396 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:06 pm

PavelGaborik10 wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
PavelGaborik10 wrote:The streams I've seen thus far certainly don't compare to Harvey last year.


Um it has only been hitting NC for a few hours right now, got another 2 to 4 days to go.


Um if you expect this thing to be at this intensity 2-4 days from now I'm not sure what to tell you.

I was speaking wind wise, the winds have been pretty underwhelming on the streams in watching.


It has been well established and thoroughly forecasted that surge and rain were the primary threats with Florence.
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Global model run times (CST):
GFS - 0z: 10:30pm, 6z: 4:30am, 12z: 10:30am, 18z: 4:30pm Euro - 0z: 12:30am 12z: 12:30pm

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4397 Postby Hammy » Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:08 pm

Something to consider with the winds, despite being lower they're going to last at hurricane force for about a day or two in some areas--that can offset the low wind speeds so the damage is going to end up higher than one would normally expect at this intensity.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4398 Postby meriland29 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:17 pm

Is TWC trolling its viewers or something? The latest commercial was an as seen on TV commercial for Better Brella umbrellas....
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4399 Postby PTPatrick » Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:18 pm

Getting caught up after being out and about this evening since her last big burst where she unsuccessfully tried yet again to get herself together. Looks like about what I Suspected...lots of water and some heavy wind on the ObX. Watching to weather guy in wilington stand there making excuses for why it’s calm, I kinda had to laugh. In all seriousness I’m sure he is in a protected spot, but Wilmington is off the beach so it’s getting mod TS conditions right now, about what you’d expect.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#4400 Postby edu2703 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:24 pm

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