ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Evacuations, Closing and Observations

#541 Postby Gustywind » Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:53 pm

Guadeloupe and Martinica Under an Orange Alert Cyclone Yellow alert for the Northern Leewards Islands...
For infos, schools will be close tommorow at 1AM as others institutions.

http://www.meteofrance.gp/vigilance-antilles-guyane
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Evacuations, Closing and Observations

#542 Postby msbee » Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:42 pm

Please be safe down there, Gusty!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Advisories

#543 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:52 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
800 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...ISAAC LOSING SOME ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES QUICKLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 52.2W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Evacuations, Closing and Observations

#544 Postby Gustywind » Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:54 pm

msbee wrote:Please be safe down there, Gusty!

Thanks Barbara, you too :)
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Evacuations, Closing and Observations

#545 Postby Gustywind » Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:00 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
800 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...ISAAC LOSING SOME ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES QUICKLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 52.2W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Martinique
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua
* Montserrat
* St. Kitts and Nevis

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Isaac as additional watches or warnings will likely be
issued tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#546 Postby Gustywind » Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:10 pm

465
WTNT34 KNHC 112334
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
800 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...ISAAC LOSING SOME ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES QUICKLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 52.2W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#547 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:11 pm

could be tropical wave
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#548 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:35 pm

70 mph trop wave?
floridasun78 wrote:could be tropical wave
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#549 Postby Gustywind » Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:38 pm

jlauderdal wrote:70 mph trop wave?
floridasun78 wrote:could be tropical wave

:lol: a nasty twave lol.
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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#550 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:50 pm

Gustywind wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:70 mph trop wave?
floridasun78 wrote:could be tropical wave

a nasty twave lol.
Everyone ready for isaac? we didnt forget about you folks but have something inbound closer to home
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#551 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:33 pm

jlauderdal wrote:70 mph trop wave?
floridasun78 wrote:could be tropical wave
i saying that shear could make it much weaker faster
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#552 Postby abajan » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:33 pm

Gustywind wrote:Guadeloupe and Martinica Under an Orange Alert Cyclone Yellow alert for the Northern Leewards Islands...
For infos, schools will be close tommorow at 1AM as others institutions.

http://www.meteofrance.gp/vigilance-antilles-guyane


Surely, that's a typo. Otherwise, school hours in Guadeloupe are most peculiar! :lol:
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#553 Postby abajan » Tue Sep 11, 2018 9:36 pm

jlauderdal wrote:70 mph trop wave?
floridasun78 wrote:could be tropical wave

Not unheard of. I've experienced a tropical wave here with winds in excess of 60 mph.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Advisories

#554 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:00 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...ISAAC A LITTLE WEAKER...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR MARTINIQUE...DOMINICA...AND
GUADELOUPE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 52.3W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Dominica. The Hurricane Watch for Dominica has been discontinued.

Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

A slew of recent microwave passes have revealed that Isaac's center
is outrunning the deep convection by about a degree due to
strengthening westerly shear. With the degradation in structure,
Dvorak estimates have fallen to T3.0/3.5 from both TAFB and SAB.
The initial intensity is being set at 55 kt to match the CI number
(3.5), but I wouldn't be surprised if the actual intensity is
closer to the final-T number.

Isaac is moving quickly westward, or 270/14 kt. Ridging to the
north should keep the cyclone on a similar speed and path for much
of the forecast period. The only main difference among the track
models is Isaac's future speed, and the NHC official forecast
continues to favor the faster models--the GFS, ECMWF, and HCCA
models. Since the forecast thinking is unchanged, the updated NHC
forecast is not too different from the previous one. Isaac's
center is expected to move across the Lesser Antilles near
Martinique and Dominica on Thursday.

Vertical shear is expected to increase and turn more northwesterly
during the next 36 hours as Isaac moves closer to the base of an
upper-level trough which extends northeast of the Leeward Islands.
Therefore, deep convection is expected to remain decoupled from the
low-level center, and Isaac's structure could degrade further over
the next day or two. The cyclone's maximum winds are also expected
to decrease, and the NHC official forecast is close to the HCCA,
Florida State Superensemble, and ICON intensity consensus aids.
Even though the statistical-dynamical models and the HWRF
restrengthen Isaac by days 4 and 5 when the shear decreases, there
may not be much left of the cyclone for any strengthening to occur.
Both the GFS and ECMWF global models show Isaac weakening to a
remnant low or opening up into a trough by days 4 or 5, which is
the scenario favored by the NHC official forecast. As such,
dissipation is now shown in the forecast at day 5.


Key Message:

1. Isaac is expected to remain at tropical storm intensity when it
moves across the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, and tropical storm
warnings have been issued for Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe.
Tropical storm watches are in effect for Montserrat, St. Kitts
and Nevis, Antigua, and Saba and St. Eustatius. Interests on those
islands should follow any advice given by their local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 14.5N 52.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 14.6N 54.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 14.7N 57.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 14.9N 60.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 15.1N 63.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 15.2N 69.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 15.0N 74.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#555 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:36 pm

ISAAC keep getting weaker
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#556 Postby wkwally » Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:50 pm

floridasun78 wrote:ISAAC keep getting weaker

Last year I remember another storm that was weaker in the Caribbean and stomped us here in Houston
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#557 Postby chaser1 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:50 am

Well, look at it this way..... Isaac looks a hell of a lot more formidable then 95L does LOL
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Advisories

#558 Postby southerngale » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:46 am

274
WTNT44 KNHC 120834
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

Isaac is a poorly organized tropical storm. Geostationary satellite
and microwave images indicate that the center of the cyclone is
located near the western edge of the main area of deep convection.
This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to about 20 kt of
west-northwesterly shear. The satellite intensity estimates have
been decreasing, and an average of the Dvorak CI-numbers supports
lowering the initial wind speed slightly to 50 kt. The NOAA
Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Isaac later this
morning, and that data should provide a better assessment of the
storm's intensity and structure.

Isaac continues to move due westward at about 13 kt. The track
forecast reasoning remains unchanged. A fairly strong mid-level
ridge to the north of Isaac should steer the system westward at
about the same forward speed during the next several days. The
models are now in fairly good agreement, and the NHC track forecast
is just a little north of the previous one to come in line with the
latest guidance. Based on this forecast, Isaac is expected to cross
portions of the Leeward and Windward Islands in about 36 hours.

Isaac is feeling the effects of wind shear, and the global models
suggest that the shear will likely remain moderate to strong during
the next couple of days. These hostile winds combined with nearby
dry air will likely cause Isaac to gradually weaken during the next
several days. The intensity models are in fair agreement, and this
forecast is close to the model consensus, except a little lower than
that aid at 96 hours. The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models
show Isaac opening up into a trough by day 5, and the NHC forecast
follows those models.

Key Message:

1. Isaac is expected to remain at tropical storm intensity when it
moves across the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, and tropical storm
warnings are in effect for Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe.
Tropical storm watches are in effect for Montserrat, St. Kitts and
Nevis, Antigua, and Saba and St. Eustatius. Interests on those
islands should follow any advice given by their local officials.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 14.5N 53.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 14.8N 55.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 15.0N 58.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 15.2N 61.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 15.4N 64.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 15.3N 70.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 15.2N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Advisories

#559 Postby southerngale » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:48 am

710
WTNT34 KNHC 120833
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

...ISAAC A LITTLE WEAKER AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 53.5W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua
* Montserrat
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Isaac.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 53.5 West. Isaac is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue through the weekend. On the forecast
track, Isaac's center is forecast to move across the central Lesser
Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
Isaac later this morning and should provide a better assessment of
the intensity of the tropical storm and the extent of its winds.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to 8 inches across
Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe, with up to one inch
anticipated across the remaining Windward and Leeward Islands.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Martinique,
Dominica, and Guadeloupe by tonight or early Thursday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
on Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Some coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaac will begin to affect portions
of the Lesser Antilles this afternoon. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialos
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#560 Postby Gustywind » Wed Sep 12, 2018 4:39 am

abajan wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Guadeloupe and Martinica Under an Orange Alert Cyclone Yellow alert for the Northern Leewards Islands...
For infos, schools will be close tommorow at 1AM as others institutions.

http://www.meteofrance.gp/vigilance-antilles-guyane


Surely, that's a typo. Otherwise, school hours in Guadeloupe are most peculiar! :lol:

2 PM excuse me.
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