ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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wkwally
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#561 Postby wkwally » Wed Sep 12, 2018 4:54 am

chaser1 wrote:Well, look at it this way..... Isaac looks a hell of a lot more formidable then 95L does LOL

Right now I'm not taking my eyes off either one. In fact I will relax when both 95L and Issiac have made landfall far from Houston.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#562 Postby drezee » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:07 am

Personally, I think Isaac's only path to survival is to get weak enough for the center to either reform under the MLC convection or get sucked in by it...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#563 Postby Nimbus » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:31 am

Another burst of convection further west but don't know yet whether the shear has let up.
Weaker than yesterday morning but I doubt it has opened up into a wave, there still may be enough pressure gradient to come back some before the islands if the shear is lighter.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#564 Postby Gustywind » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:47 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

...ISAAC A LITTLE WEAKER AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 53.5W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Evacuations, Closing and Observations

#565 Postby Gustywind » Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:33 am

Hello my friends, Guadeloupe and Martinica are still on a TS warning...

http://www.meteofrance.gp/vigilance-antilles-guyane
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Evacuations, Closing and Observations

#566 Postby Gustywind » Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:34 am

710
WTNT34 KNHC 120833
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

...ISAAC A LITTLE WEAKER AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 53.5W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua
* Montserrat
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Isaac.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Recon

#567 Postby Gustywind » Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:47 am

Can someone can put the latest on Isaac's recon please? Thanks :) Cycloneye where are you? :(
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#568 Postby NDG » Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:49 am

So far Recon is finding tropical force winds more than 150 miles to the west of the LLC.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#569 Postby msbee » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:00 am

floridasun78 wrote:could be tropical wave

Even a tropical wave can cause problems for islands that are still recovering. In particular, an island like Dominica is vulnerable to flash floods and mud slides.
And my heart goes out to anyone in the path of Florence.
I know what you are going to experience.
#hurricaneirmasurvivor
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Recon

#570 Postby redneck51 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:02 am

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#571 Postby Gustywind » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:02 am

msbee wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:could be tropical wave

Even a tropical wave can cause problems for islands that are still recovering. In particular, an island like Dominica is vulnerable to flash floods and mud slides.
And my heart goes out to anyone in the path of Florence.
I know what you are going to experience.
#hurricaneirmasurvivor

Absolutely Barbara! That is why we should be on our guard. Let's pray for.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Recon

#572 Postby Gustywind » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:07 am


Thanks my friend :) Usually someone post it that is why Wonder, anyway no problem, i appreciate your link. :)
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#573 Postby NDG » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:11 am

As the recon has gotten closer to the LLC the weaker the winds have become as it has dove into the SW quadrant, looks like it will make a pass SW to NE.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Advisories

#574 Postby Gustywind » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:23 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
800 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER APPROACHING ISAAC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 54.1W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua
* Montserrat
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Isaac.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 54.1 West. Isaac is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through the weekend. On the forecast
track, Isaac's center is forecast to move across the central Lesser
Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday, and into
the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days. A
NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft will soon fly through the center
of Isaac, and will provide a better assessment of the intensity of
the tropical storm and the extent of its winds.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to 8 inches across
Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe, with up to one inch
anticipated across the remaining Windward and Leeward Islands.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Martinique,
Dominica, and Guadeloupe by tonight or early Thursday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
on Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Some coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaac will begin to affect portions
of the Lesser Antilles this afternoon. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#575 Postby NDG » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:24 am

Recon is finding Isaac much weaker than estimated, lowest extrap pressure is 1007mb, also further south than estimated, near 14N & 54.3W. It still has a closed circulation.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Recon

#576 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:26 am

Plane found center exposed and pressure up to 1007 mbs.

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#577 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:33 am

NDG wrote:Recon is finding Isaac much weaker than estimated, lowest extrap pressure is 1007mb, also further south than estimated, near 14N & 54.3W. It still has a closed circulation.


If it ends up hitting the islands at between 1005-1007, the Euro will have nailed this forecast 5 days out or more.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#578 Postby caneman » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:54 am

I'm not one to wishcast but I'm hoping Isaac comes up the eastern gulf to wipe out this red tide, we've been dealing with on the west coast of Florida
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#579 Postby drezee » Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:14 am

Issac is astrong trough of Low pressure... no longer have a well defined center
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#580 Postby ouragans » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:21 am

Looks like the Hunter heads north to another possible LLC. There's a swirl visible on the sat pic on Tropical Tidbits
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