ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#601 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:21 pm

Poor Isaac really need to get some convection going if we want to get 5 storms

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#602 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:31 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Poor Isaac really need to get some convection going if we want to get 5 storms

https://i.imgur.com/UMSWk4A.gif

https://i.imgur.com/S1c9Oho.png



This would be great for the islands. He looks like trash right now.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#603 Postby Nimbus » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:39 pm

Might still be kind of breezy in Antigua early tomorrow morning.
Not sure how much rain there will be as Isaac is moving pretty fast and doesn't have much cloud cover ATM.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#604 Postby Patrick99 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:12 pm

If I'm reading the shear maps correctly, should shortly be moving into area of low shear, though, correct?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#605 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:57 pm

Saved images of 4 simultaneous named storms in the Atlantic. Perhaps soon to be 5

Image

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Advisories

#606 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:57 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

...ISAAC EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 56.6W
ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua
* Montserrat
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Martin and St. Maarten
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#607 Postby Gustywind » Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:57 pm

026
WTNT34 KNHC 122050
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

...ISAAC EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 56.6W
ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#608 Postby Gustywind » Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:08 pm

107
WTNT34 KNHC 122356
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
800 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING ISAAC...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 57.2W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM ENE OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#609 Postby Gustywind » Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:10 pm

Guadeloupe is now Under a red vigilance cyclone meaning that we're on TS WARNING! I'm prepared! I will try to keeif your informed if anything happens!
http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... eloupe.pdf
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#610 Postby msbee » Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:32 pm

Gustywind wrote:Guadeloupe is now Under a red vigilance cyclone meaning that we're on TS WARNING! I'm prepared! I will try to keeif your informed if anything happens!
http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... eloupe.pdf

How are conditions there now?
Glad you are well prepared
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#611 Postby Gustywind » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:02 pm

msbee wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Guadeloupe is now Under a red vigilance cyclone meaning that we're on TS WARNING! I'm prepared! I will try to keeif your informed if anything happens!
http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... eloupe.pdf

How are conditions there now?
Glad you are well prepared

Thanks Barbara :) i'm ok! Given the latest position looks like Isaac is not so far from Dominica and Guadeloupe...
Nothing special only sometimes very briefs passing showers, lights winds for the moment. Looks like tommorow early morning for the first effects and near 12 AM approximetaly we should experience the real effects of TS Isaac. We will see. Isaac is tenacious. We hope that nothing bad happens, keeping our fingers crossed. :)
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#612 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:05 pm

Gustywind wrote:
msbee wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Guadeloupe is now Under a red vigilance cyclone meaning that we're on TS WARNING! I'm prepared! I will try to keeif your informed if anything happens!
http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... eloupe.pdf

How are conditions there now?
Glad you are well prepared

Thanks Barbara :) i'm ok! Given the latest position looks like Isaac is not so far from Dominica and Guadeloupe...
Nothing special only sometimes very briefs passing showers, lights winds for the moment. Looks like tommorow early morning for the first effects and near 12 AM approximetaly we should experience the real effects of TS Isaac. We will see. Isaac is tenacious. We hope that nothing bad happens, keeping our fingers crossed. :)


Stay safe my friend and when you can,report how are things going in the butterfly island.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#613 Postby Gustywind » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:05 pm

msbee wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Guadeloupe is now Under a red vigilance cyclone meaning that we're on TS WARNING! I'm prepared! I will try to keeif your informed if anything happens!
http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... eloupe.pdf

How are conditions there now?
Glad you are well prepared

How are the conditions in your area Barbara?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#614 Postby Gustywind » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:08 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Gustywind wrote:
msbee wrote:How are conditions there now?
Glad you are well prepared

Thanks Barbara :) i'm ok! Given the latest position looks like Isaac is not so far from Dominica and Guadeloupe...
Nothing special only sometimes very briefs passing showers, lights winds for the moment. Looks like tommorow early morning for the first effects and near 12 AM approximetaly we should experience the real effects of TS Isaac. We will see. Isaac is tenacious. We hope that nothing bad happens, keeping our fingers crossed. :)


Stay safe my friend and when you can,report how are things going in the butterfly island.

Thanks Luis! Absolutely i cannot forget my friends :) I will keep your informed. :D
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#615 Postby msbee » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:17 pm

Very quiet here, Gusty. Breeze picking up slightly.
Be safe there!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Advisories

#616 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:57 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS ISAAC A LITTLE WEAKER...
...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 58.0W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM E OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHE


Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

A NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter plane has been investigating Isaac this
evening, and the data show that the cyclone has weakened a bit.
The maximum 850-mb flight-level wind measured by the plane was 47
kt, and the highest SFMR winds not coincident with a rain spike were
around 45 kt. Based on these wind data, the initial intensity is
lowered to 45 kt, and the minimum pressure is up to 1006 mb based on
dropsonde data. Additionally, a superposition of the flight-level
wind and dropsonde surface wind data suggest that Isaac may not have
a closed circulation at 850 mb but is still hanging on to one at the
surface.

All of Isaac's deep convection is displaced 60-120 n mi to the
northeast and southeast of the low-level center due to around 30 kt
of westerly shear. This magnitude of the shear is not expected to
decrease during the next 12-24 hours, so at the very least, gradual
weakening is anticipated. With the circulation so fragile and
limited to below 850 mb, however, it's entirely possible that Isaac
could open up into a wave at any time. Even if degeneration into a
wave occurs, the system would likely carry tropical-storm-force
winds across the Leeward Islands on Thursday. After Isaac moves
into the eastern Caribbean Sea, there is a lot of uncertainty
regarding its future. The 18Z GFS has come back in line with the
ECMWF, showing Isaac opening up into a trough over the central and
western Caribbean Sea, but the environmental conditions (lower
shear, warm sea surface temperatures, etc.) would suggest that the
system would have an opportunity to restrengthen. For now, the new
NHC intensity forecast maintains continuity from the previous
advisory, showing gradual weakening through 48 hours and then
holding the system at 35 kt through day 5. This remains a low
confidence forecast until we know if Isaac survives the next couple
of days.

Isaac continues to move quickly westward with an initial motion of
270/17 kt. The track guidance remains tightly clustered on a
nearly due westward motion for much of the forecast period, with
some of the same speed differences noted in previous forecasts.
Especially since Isaac's speed has been faster than forecast, the
NHC track forecast continues to favor the faster guidance, in
particular the ECMWF, GFS, and HCCA models.

Reconnaissance and scatterometer data suggest that there are no
tropical-storm-force winds within the southern semicircle, but the
radii we've been carrying within the northern semicircle appear
reasonable. The wind radii forecast have been adjusted to account
for the new initial radii.

Key Messages:

1. Isaac is expected to still be producing tropical-storm-force
winds when it moves across the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, and
tropical storm warnings are in effect for Martinique, Dominica, and
Guadeloupe. Tropical storm watches are in effect for Montserrat,
St. Kitts and Nevis, Antigua, Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Maarten,
and St. Martin. Interests on those islands should follow any advice
given by their local officials.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding is possible with Isaac. The
storm is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4
inches with isolated amounts up 8 inches across Martinique,
Dominica and Guadeloupe. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with
isolated amounts to 4 inches are expected across Puerto Rico and the
southern United States Virgin Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 15.3N 58.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 15.5N 60.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 15.6N 63.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 15.7N 66.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 15.7N 69.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 15.6N 73.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 16.5N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 17.5N 82.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#617 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:58 pm

Wow,

Been few days since I logged on, where in the hell did Joyce come from. LOL What a crazy most active part of the season, I now start to wonder what October brings to S. FLA
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#618 Postby Gustywind » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:02 pm

msbee wrote:Very quiet here, Gusty. Breeze picking up slightly.
Be safe there!

OK let's hope it will stay like that :)
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#619 Postby Gustywind » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:04 pm

TS churning near Dominica and Guadeloupe...

336
WTNT34 KNHC 130252
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS ISAAC A LITTLE WEAKER...
...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 58.0W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM E OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#620 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:04 pm

Gusty looks like everyone in the Islands finally got a big break good for all of you.
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