ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#621 Postby AnnularCane » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:29 pm

40 mph from 48-120 hours. Translation: "We have no idea." :P
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#622 Postby Chris90 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:20 pm

Isaac is a fighter. You can see the exposed circulation even on infrared imagery, but in the past couple hours, convection has bloomed a lot closer to the LLC, despite the westerly shear the system has been fighting. Might prevent the system from opening up in to a wave for at least a little while longer.
Best wishes to all in the islands, I know the system is "just a tropical storm", but it still must be nerve wracking for all of you after what you guys went through last year. Hopefully he's just a passing rain shower and convection is too weak to bring down the stronger t-storm winds when he arrives.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Advisories

#623 Postby southerngale » Thu Sep 13, 2018 4:01 am

441
WTNT34 KNHC 130856
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NEARING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 59.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Barbuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua
* Barbuda
* Montserrat
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Martin and St. Maarten

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next few hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next few
hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Isaac.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was
located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 59.7 West. Isaac is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). This general motion
is forecast to continue for the next several days. On the forecast
track, Isaac is forecast to move across the central Lesser Antilles
and into the eastern Caribbean Sea later today, and then move across
the eastern and central Caribbean Sea through the weekend.

Earlier data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected over the next several hours as
Isaac moves through the Leeward Islands. Gradual weakening is
forecast after that as Isaac moves through the eastern Caribbean.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Isaac is expected to produce total
rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to
6 inches across Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe, especially
over elevated terrain. Rainfall of 0.5 to 1.5 inches with isolated
amounts to 3 inches are forecast across Puerto Rico and the southern
United States Virgin Islands, with up to an inch anticipated across
the remaining Windward and Leeward Islands. This rainfall may cause
dangerous flash flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical
storm warning area beginning within the next few hours through the
afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area, also beginning later this morning.

STORM SURGE: Some coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaac are affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Advisories

#624 Postby southerngale » Thu Sep 13, 2018 4:01 am

142
WTNT44 KNHC 130859
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

Data from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft that departed the
storm shortly before 0600 UTC indicated that the tropical storm has
weakened a little more. Maximum flight-level winds were around 51
kt, while maximum SFMR winds were only 41 kt. Both of these
support an initial intensity of 40 kt. Wind measurements from the
plane also suggested that Isaac is close to opening up into a
tropical wave and its circulation is likely barely closed at the
surface. Another P-3 mission is scheduled for this morning.

Isaac is nearly completely devoid of deep convection at the moment,
and is not trackable in radar data from Guadeloupe and Martinique.
Given the lack of deep convection to sustain the cyclone, continued
gradual weakening is expected. However, given the extent of
40 mph winds observed by the NOAA plane, Isaac is still likely to
bring gusty conditions to many of the Leeward Islands through
this afternoon. The dynamical guidance is now in fairly good
agreement on the intensity of Isaac for the next few days, and
nearly all of the models depict Isaac opening into a trough between
48 and 96 h. The NHC forecast conservatively maintains Isaac
through day 4 in an attempt to maintain some continuity, but it
is very possible that Isaac will open into a trough sooner than
indicated. Some of the dynamical models suggest that regeneration
could occur in the western Caribbean, however the predictability of
such an event is too low to explicitly show in the forecast at this
point.

Isaac is still moving quickly westward, with an initial motion of
275/15 kt. Confidence in the track forecast remains high, and the
track guidance is tightly clustered through the forecast period.
Very little change was made to the track forecast, which continues
to closely follow the HCCA model. As long as Isaac remains a
shallow cyclone, it should continue to be steered westward by the
low-level tradewind flow, even if, or when, it opens up into a
trough.


Key Messages:

1. Isaac is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across
portions of the Lesser Antilles this morning and afternoon, and
tropical storm warnings are in effect for Martinique, Dominica, and
Guadeloupe.

2. Tropical storm watches are in effect for Montserrat, St. Kitts
and Nevis, Antigua, Barbuda, Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Maarten,
and St. Martin. Tropical storm conditions are possible on these
islands today and interests on those islands should follow any
advice given by their local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 15.4N 59.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 15.5N 61.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 15.5N 64.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 15.5N 67.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 15.4N 70.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 15.6N 74.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 16.9N 78.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky



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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#625 Postby CrimsonCollins » Thu Sep 13, 2018 5:16 am

Not sure how to post a picture on here but I was just looking at Tidbits 00z Thursday euro model. It now shows Isaac strengthening, instead of filtering out, and heading north to make landfall in SETX/SWLA on Sunday.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#626 Postby CrimsonCollins » Thu Sep 13, 2018 5:20 am

CrimsonCollins wrote:Not sure how to post a picture on here but I was just looking at Tidbits 00z Thursday euro model. It now shows Isaac strengthening, instead of filtering out, and heading north to make landfall in SETX/SWLA on Sunday.

I should have clarified, this would be on Sunday the 23rd. Still a lot of time for movement but something to keep a closer eye on for us down in the SETX/SWLA area
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#627 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 13, 2018 5:48 am

WTNT34 KNHC 130856
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NEARING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 59.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#628 Postby msbee » Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:05 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
800 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED SOON IN THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 60.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM E OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Evacuations, Closing and Observations

#629 Postby msbee » Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:10 am

early morning report from Dominica on stromcarib.com

"We have woken up to very grey skies, misty rain and a brisk breeze. Checking stormcarib this morning the system is still going to come over Dominica. Hopefully, Isaac may not be as bad as we think!

All Dominica is under a curfew which started at midnight on Wednesday and will carry on until 12.0 noon on Friday. After Maria there was a great deal of luting. The lesson being learned hopefully, for Isaac.

We hope that we keep our WiFi through Isaac. Also that the electricity stays with us no poles down!

Everyone stay safe. I will keep you posted."
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Evacuations, Closing and Observations

#630 Postby artist » Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:15 am

Stay safe everyone, know our thoughts and prayers are with you. Check in when you can, please.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Evacuations, Closing and Observations

#631 Postby artist » Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:54 am

NHC_TAFB
NHC_TAFB
@NHC_TAFB
·
19m
Tropical Storm Isaac producing a large area of 10 to 20 ft swell across the Atlantic offhore waters of the northern Leeward Islands this morning. Image Valid 1200 UTC 9/13, issued 0900 UTC 09/13.
#Isaac
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#632 Postby artist » Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:54 am

NHC_TAFB
NHC_TAFB
@NHC_TAFB
·
19m
Tropical Storm Isaac producing a large area of 10 to 20 ft swell across the Atlantic offhore waters of the northern Leeward Islands this morning. Image Valid 1200 UTC 9/13, issued 0900 UTC 09/13.
#Isaac
Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Advisories

#633 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:58 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

...ISAAC NOW MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 61.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SW OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

Satellite imagery indicate that Isaac remains a poorly organized
tropical cyclone, with the low-level center mostly exposed during
the past several hours. The center of Isaac passed between Dominica
and Martinique around 1300 UTC, with westerly winds reported on both
St. Lucia and Martinique, indicating that Isaac is still a tropical
storm. Data from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
maximum winds remain near 40 kt, although the area of tropical-
storm-force winds has shrunk since yesterday.

1200 UTC radiosonde data from the eastern Caribbean and Hurricane
Hunter aircraft data indicate that the circulation of Isaac is
fairly shallow and small. It is entirely possible that Isaac will
degenerate into a tropical wave during the next day or two due to
the continued effects of strong shear. However, the environment
becomes much more conducive for increased organization in a few days
when the cyclone, or its remnants, moves across the west-central
Caribbean Sea. Model guidance is not consistent at all on whether
Isaac will survive as a tropical cyclone, which frankly might not be
a very predictable event given the initial uncertainties. The best
course of action is to let the full 1200 UTC guidance suite ingest
all of the latest radiosonde and other data before making any
changes, so this advisory holds the status quo for now.

Isaac is moving a little south-of-west and a bit faster, since it
was devoid of convection most of night, at about 265/17. A mid-level
ridge is forecast to persist over the southwestern Atlantic,
steering Isaac westward for the next few days. The track forecast
is fairly dependent on the intensity forecast, since a deeper
tropical cyclone will move slower due to slightly weaker winds in
the middle part of the atmosphere. The forecast has been too slow
so far, and with the current forecast showing little strengthening,
the official track prediction is shifted west of the previous one,
close to the NOAA corrected consensus aid. At the end of the
forecast, if Isaac remains a tropical cyclone, it could start moving
more toward the west-northwest, but I would place little emphasis on
the 96-hour point until we get a better handle on the future
structure of Isaac.

Key Messages:

1. Isaac is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across
portions of the Lesser Antilles into this afternoon, and tropical
storm warnings are in effect for Martinique, Dominica, and
Guadeloupe.

2. Tropical storm watches are in effect for Montserrat, St. Kitts
and Nevis, Antigua, Barbuda, Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Maarten,
and St. Martin. Tropical storm conditions are possible on these
islands today and interests on those islands should follow any
advice given by their local officials.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 14.9N 61.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 14.9N 64.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 14.9N 67.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 14.9N 69.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 15.0N 72.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 15.5N 76.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 17.0N 80.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#634 Postby SoupBone » Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:40 am

Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 24...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

Corrected for Puerto Rico rainfall in the Hazards section

...ISAAC NOW MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 61.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SW OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Evacuations, Closing and Observations

#635 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 13, 2018 11:10 am

FLASH FLOOD WATCH...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1110 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

...Periods of heavy rainfall are expected late tonight into Friday
as Isaac moves south of the area...

.There is a high risk of flash flooding across eastern sections of
Puerto Rico as Isaac moves south of the area.

PRZ001>004-006-007-132300-
/O.COR.TJSJ.FF.A.0002.180913T2200Z-180915T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Juan and Vicinity-Northeast-Southeast-Eastern Interior-
Central Interior-Ponce and Vicinity-
Including the cities of Bayamon, Carolina, Catano, Guaynabo,
San Juan, Toa Alta, Toa Baja, Trujillo Alto, Ceiba, Canovanas,
Fajardo, Humacao, Loiza, Luquillo, Naguabo, Rio Grande, Arroyo,
Guayama, Maunabo, Patillas, Salinas, Yabucoa, Aguas Buenas,
Caguas, Cayey, Cidra, Comerio, Gurabo, Juncos, Las Piedras,
San Lorenzo, Aibonito, Baranquitas, Ciales, Coamo, Corozal,
Jayuya, Morovis, Naranjito, Orocovis, Villalba, Guayanilla,
Juana Diaz, Yauco, Penuelas, Ponce, and Santa Isabel
1110 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM AST THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in San Juan has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for a portion of Puerto Rico, including the
following areas, Central Interior, Eastern Interior,
Northeast, Ponce and Vicinity, San Juan and Vicinity, and
Southeast.

* From 6 PM AST this evening through Friday evening

* As the outer bands of Tropical Storm Isaac move closer to the
forecast area, showers and thunderstorms with some gusty winds
will begin to affect the local islands as early as late tonight
into early Friday morning. The shower and thunder activity is
expected to become more frequent by the mid morning hours on
Friday and continue through at least Friday night.

Although fast-moving showers and thunderstorms are anticipated,
the rainfall activity could be enhanced by the local terrain.
Based on the latest forecast and the complexity of the terrain,
rainfall totals will range between 2 to 4 inches with locally
higher amounts possible across the south central, southeast and
east sections of Puerto Rico. As a result, there is a moderate
to high risk of flash flooding across these areas, and a Flash
Flood Watch has been issued.

Possible impacts include, flooding of rivers and small streams
as well as mud slides in areas of steep terrain.

Elsewhere, including Vieques, Culebra, Saint Thomas and
Saint Croix, lower rainfall accumulations are expected. Rainfall
totals will range 1 to 2 inches and therefore the risk for flash
flooding across western Puerto Rico and the outlying islands is
low. However, urban flooding is still possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Evacuations, Closing and Observations

#636 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:39 pm

Yep, hello my friends! I'm back even if we're Under the TS WARNING red vigilance cyclone for Guadeloupe. Isaac is moving away :) Whereas, for the moment nothing bad no report of damages, only strong gusts have been reported in some localities, rainfall are very modest for the moment. We're waiting for another big round of showers tstorms this afternoon and tonight even tommorow rainfall close to 100 to 150 mm are again expected. We will have to wait and see if this occurs or not. Looks like Isaac has blessed much or the all islands, but a bit too early for that, we have to wait and see this last round to confirms this.
I will keep your informed if i've more infos. :)
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Evacuations, Closing and Observations

#637 Postby msbee » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:44 pm

Glad all is well there, Gusty.
So far on St Maarten Isaac is a non event. High winds but no rain so far. Blue skies.
I wouldn't want to be out on a boat today though.
Luis, stay safe there in PR!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Evacuations, Closing and Observations

#638 Postby artist » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:46 pm

Thanks for the updates from the islands, Gusty, and Barb! Stay safe!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Evacuations, Closing and Observations

#639 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:54 pm

artist wrote:Thanks for the updates from the islands, Gusty, and Barb! Stay safe!

THANKS! Keeping our fingers :) for the second part of this episode!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Evacuations, Closing and Observations

#640 Postby Gustywind » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:56 pm

msbee wrote:Glad all is well there, Gusty.
So far on St Maarten Isaac is a non event. High winds but no rain so far. Blue skies.
I wouldn't want to be out on a boat today though.
Luis, stay safe there in PR!

Hello Barbara! Good news :) do not want to be on a boat too lol.We're waiting for the second round but for now all is ok. Let's see what happens in next couple of hours.
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