ATL: ISAAC - Models

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ATL: ISAAC - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:33 pm

Models only.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#2 Postby chaser1 » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:38 pm

Well, here's the 12Z Euro with Invest 92 ..... and ?

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#3 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:43 pm

:uarrow: Nice pic Chaser1... Which one is 92L? Just off coast or closest to Florence?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#4 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:44 pm

Blown Away wrote::uarrow: Nice pic Chaser1... Which one is 92L? Just off coast or closest to Florence?


Closest to Florence.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#5 Postby HurricaneEric » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:46 pm

galaxy401 wrote:This one might have to be watched down the line. I think the models have this system moving more south.

Welcome to September everyone. Going to be hectic.


Yup. 12z Euro running now. Has a 1004mb TS headed for the Caribbean islands so far through 192 hours.

Image

Looks busy...


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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#6 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:49 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#7 Postby AnnularCane » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:58 pm

Is that a southwest dip at the end? :eek:

(Sounds like something you'd dip tortilla chips in. :P )
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#8 Postby HurricaneEric » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:59 pm

Image

Oh man... let’s hope this doesn’t verify. PR does not need any kind of tropical cyclone this year.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#9 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 03, 2018 2:32 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#10 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 03, 2018 2:35 pm

Conditions don't look that great ahead of it, but ANY kind of hit on that path is bad news after last year.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#11 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 03, 2018 4:52 pm

HurricaneEric wrote:Image

Oh man... let’s hope this doesn’t verify. PR does not need any kind of tropical cyclone this year.


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That's an awfully strange path considering what Florence is doing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#12 Postby artist » Mon Sep 03, 2018 5:07 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#13 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 03, 2018 6:06 pm

18z GFS is way different than Euro as it has 92L turning NW and then north well away from Lesser Antilles and Bermuda.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#14 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 03, 2018 6:10 pm

cycloneye wrote:18z GFS is way different than Euro as it has 92L turning NW and then north well away from Lesser Antilles and Bermuda.




I know the GFS stayed at the Holiday Inn last night, but doesn't this seem like a more reasonable solution to the turn SW one considering Florence? Though it is a rather abrupt turn.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#15 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:35 pm

Luis makes perfect since rather substantial weakness left by florence for a recurve northward.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#16 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:48 pm

00z GFS has a Caribbean cruiser.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#17 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Sep 04, 2018 4:36 am

euro brings it across at a few degrees higher but the idea is the same that there is enough ridging in place even in the wake of florence..euro looks very dangerous for the SE USA, will see if that ridge can hold
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#18 Postby abajan » Tue Sep 04, 2018 5:56 am

cycloneye wrote:00z GFS has a Caribbean cruiser.

https://i.imgur.com/mXEGWaD.gif

The 06z GFS shows a totally different scenario, with 92L dancing the Fugiwhara with the storm behind it. :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#19 Postby toad strangler » Tue Sep 04, 2018 6:03 am

abajan wrote:
cycloneye wrote:00z GFS has a Caribbean cruiser.

https://i.imgur.com/mXEGWaD.gif

The 06z GFS shows a totally different scenario, with 92L dancing the Fugiwhara with the storm behind it. :lol:


And completely fishes both.

Does spin up something in the Gulf in the later range but other than that the run ends with nothing in the basin.
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ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#20 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 04, 2018 7:10 am

European ensembles take this near the islands and possibly into the southeastern bahamas in time.

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