ATL: ISAAC - Models

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#361 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:22 am

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#362 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:29 am

welcome to the party GFS :lol:
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#363 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:34 am

Looks like a Gustav track into the Gulf on 12z GFS
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#364 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:40 am

GFS says Issac isn't going away anytime soon as it hits the gulf and gains strength in the 12z.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#365 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:44 am

I’m really interested to see if the Euro jumps on board on its 12z run as the 00z EPS Ensembles were lighting up with tracks heading due north once in the western Caribbean. Maybe conditions won’t be so bad in Caribbean?
:double:
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#366 Postby chris_fit » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:45 am

FV3 - which has done much better with Florence than GFS, keeps it very weak through 90 hours
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#367 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:45 am

Will give us something to watch will see tons of flip flopping
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#368 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:49 am

FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY! :wink:

Here is the 12z GFS @240hrs. with a decent hurricane heading due north in the NE Gulf towards Apalachicola.

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#369 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:00 pm

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#370 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:03 pm

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#371 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:04 pm




That's a reasonable possibility that's been shown a few times with the GFS on recent flip flops.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#372 Postby wxGuy » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:07 pm

cmc been taking isaac for 3 days now in gom, now showing w gom, so really anything from s tx to florida is showing something in the late next week, but when models finally come down to it I believe they will sniff out a TX CAT 3-4 hurricane when it's all said and done. invest 95L shall be the warning shot from issac lets see where this ends up eh?

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#373 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:17 pm

wxGuy wrote:cmc been taking isaac for 3 days now in gom, now showing w gom, so really anything from s tx to florida is showing something in the late next week, but when models finally come down to it I believe they will sniff out a TX CAT 3-4 hurricane when it's all said and done. invest 95L shall be the warning shot from issac lets see where this ends up eh?

https://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/web/en/cmc/2018/09/12/basis00/usus/pslv/18092200_1200.gif


Any data for your oddly specific 10+ day out prediction?

EDIT: I see last night's CMC. Don't bank on it.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#374 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:29 pm

So generally what I’m seeing is more models including gfs 12z and euro 0z earlier picking up on Isaac gaining strength in the Caribbean and potentially getting into the Gulf of Mexico. Euro 12z will be important to see if it also intensifies Isaac in the Caribbean and brings it into the GOM. Somewhere on the GOM- it’s too early to know where, could be impacted by Isaac in my unofficial opinion.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#375 Postby chris_fit » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:34 pm

Nothing on the FV3 12Z - Poooooof Have a feeling GFS run was a fluke, unless euro trends stronger in 30 min
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#376 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:34 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:So generally what I’m seeing is more models including gfs 12z and euro 0z earlier picking up on Isaac gaining strength in the Caribbean and potentially getting into the Gulf of Mexico. Euro 12z will be important to see if it also intensifies Isaac in the Caribbean and brings it into the GOM. Somewhere on the GOM- it’s too early to know where, could be impacted by Isaac in my unofficial opinion.


The last several days of model runs have shown mostly a dying in the western Caribbean solution, with the GFS flip flopping back and forth. Now with the last Euro showing something like the GFS, more eyes are opening up to that possibility. If this Euro shows it again, and even in a few more runs, people will really begin to take notice. On with the show!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#377 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:53 pm

12z HWRF has a powerful hurricane just south of haiti looks to be heading wnw through 90hrs..
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#378 Postby chris_fit » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:08 pm

12Z GFS Ensembles not impressed....

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#379 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:14 pm

For the 12Z Euro. The run isn't complete, but this high is one of the features that has shown up and then poofed, but is one of the features that doesn't (at least temporarily) allow for the north movement. The end of this run will be interesting.


Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#380 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:27 pm

12z Euro looks to kill it off in 5 days in the western Caribbean.
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