ATL: ISAAC - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
toad strangler
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 901
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#381 Postby toad strangler » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:32 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:12z Euro looks to kill it off in 5 days in the western Caribbean.



Yes, the 12z Euro dissipates this near Jamaica
1 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1293
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#382 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:37 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:12z Euro looks to kill it off in 5 days in the western Caribbean.



This has been the Euro's solution for days with the exception of the previous run. The GFS still has me concerned.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5513
Age: 30
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#383 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:40 pm

Euro kills off Isaac, gfs brings it into the GOM. Lots of uncertainty, wait and see.
1 likes   

User avatar
toad strangler
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 901
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#384 Postby toad strangler » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:43 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Euro kills off Isaac, gfs brings it into the GOM. Lots of uncertainty, wait and see.


The new GFS in testing killed it as well.
0 likes   

User avatar
MississippiWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 930
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#385 Postby MississippiWx » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:47 pm

Considering Isaac is heading into the East Caribbean graveyard in a very weak state, I'd put the chances of it making it through alive fairly low. The Caribbean is a hostile place these days, and it's only worse for weak systems. I'd say long-term chances of it being a tropical cyclone in the Gulf/Western Caribbean are 20-30%.
4 likes   
This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1293
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#386 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:52 pm

toad strangler wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Euro kills off Isaac, gfs brings it into the GOM. Lots of uncertainty, wait and see.


The new GFS in testing killed it as well.


Yep. FV3-GFS kills it. Lots of uncertainty still.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1080
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#387 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:02 pm

I wouldn’t put too much stock into that op run of the Euro. Let’s wait for the ensembles to come out.
1 likes   

stormlover2013
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1664
Joined: Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:06 pm
Location: Lumberton, Texas

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#388 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:06 pm

euro does show votorcity getting into southern gom
1 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1293
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#389 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:08 pm

Cpv17 wrote:I wouldn’t put too much stock into that op run of the Euro. Let’s wait for the ensembles to come out.



If its current state of being is to be considered, the Euro run isn't far fetched. I guess he could always ramp up, but he looks like trash currently.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

otowntiger
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1470
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm
Location: Orlando

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#390 Postby otowntiger » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:11 pm

toad strangler wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:12z Euro looks to kill it off in 5 days in the western Caribbean.



Yes, the 12z Euro dissipates this near Jamaica

That’s good news!
0 likes   

otowntiger
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1470
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm
Location: Orlando

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#391 Postby otowntiger » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:15 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Euro kills off Isaac, gfs brings it into the GOM. Lots of uncertainty, wait and see.

Maybe so but uncertainty is better than certainty we may have had if all the models develop it and are bullish. I’d take uncertainty if it means there’s a better chance it doesn’t develop since one of the main, dependable models doesn’t develop it.
1 likes   

Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1080
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#392 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:19 pm

SoupBone wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:I wouldn’t put too much stock into that op run of the Euro. Let’s wait for the ensembles to come out.



If its current state of being is to be considered, the Euro run isn't far fetched. I guess he could always ramp up, but he looks like trash currently.


True, but Harvey looked like trash at one point too so you just never know. They’re sure fun to track though!
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3319
Age: 41
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Pompano Beach, Florida

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#393 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:22 pm

HWRF has a hurricane heading WNW into the bahamas. Plenty of land interaction

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2359
Age: 40
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#394 Postby blp » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:27 pm

I would not put too much stock in the operational Euro right now. Looking at the verification on Florence the GFS is outperforming the Euro. Actually, the Euro is not doing so well compared to other models. Also, the Euro has had trouble in the deep tropics with a small system like this in the past, don't know if that is fixed. I think it will continue to weaken but will find better conditions in the central and western Caribbean.
3 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 793
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#395 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:31 pm

Any sort of LLC going into the Caribbean in September needs to be watched closely regardless of ECMWF support.
3 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2027
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#396 Postby chris_fit » Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:51 pm

Quite a spread in the 12Z ECMF Ensembles

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3319
Age: 41
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Pompano Beach, Florida

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#397 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:04 pm

lol into central america now...
0 likes   

stormlover2013
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1664
Joined: Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:06 pm
Location: Lumberton, Texas

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#398 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:06 pm

weaker it is in the Carrib towards yuc the more west it will go, if it strengthens like GFS had then could take right turn quick
0 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1293
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#399 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 12, 2018 3:14 pm

blp wrote:I would not put too much stock in the operational Euro right now. Looking at the verification on Florence the GFS is outperforming the Euro. Actually, the Euro is not doing so well compared to other models. Also, the Euro has had trouble in the deep tropics with a small system like this in the past, don't know if that is fixed. I think it will continue to weaken but will find better conditions in the central and western Caribbean.



All forecasts so far have been contrary to this though. What are you thinking will change?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1080
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#400 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:23 am

Uhhhh guys, look what the Euro has west of Jamaica.

And it goes into sw LA near Cameron as a cat one or two. :double:
0 likes   


Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest