ATL: ISAAC - Models

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#401 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:09 am

Cpv17 wrote:Uhhhh guys, look what the Euro has west of Jamaica.

And it goes into sw LA near Cameron as a cat one or two. :double:


Looks like a Cat.1 landfall.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#402 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 2:56 am

0z ECMWF ensembles have came in more bullish and are spread out all over the Gulf with the majority of them aiming towards Mexico, Texas, & Louisiana.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#403 Postby La Breeze » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:51 am

Cpv17 wrote:Uhhhh guys, look what the Euro has west of Jamaica.

And it goes into sw LA near Cameron as a cat one or two. :double:

Time frame on this, please... (I'm in Vermilion Parish - east of Cameron). When would this "possibly" occur?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#404 Postby La Breeze » Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:54 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:Uhhhh guys, look what the Euro has west of Jamaica.

And it goes into sw LA near Cameron as a cat one or two. :double:


Looks like a Cat.1 landfall.

Isn't there an expected front due about that time which might keep Isaac out of Louisiana?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#405 Postby sittingduck » Thu Sep 13, 2018 4:26 am

La Breeze wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:Uhhhh guys, look what the Euro has west of Jamaica.

And it goes into sw LA near Cameron as a cat one or two. :double:

Time frame on this, please... (I'm in Vermilion Parish - east of Cameron). When would this "possibly" occur?

EURO and CMC both bring it in on Sept 22. 00z GFS basically drops it or brings it in as a wave maybe
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#406 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 4:30 am

La Breeze wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:Uhhhh guys, look what the Euro has west of Jamaica.

And it goes into sw LA near Cameron as a cat one or two. :double:


Looks like a Cat.1 landfall.

Isn't there an expected front due about that time which might keep Isaac out of Louisiana?


It’s 10 days out. No telling where it’ll go yet or if it’ll make it through the Caribbean without dying out. We’ll know much more in 3 days or so. Just something to keep an eye on for now.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#407 Postby stormchazer » Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:19 am

I’m not certain that there will even be an Isaac in the Western Caribbean. The system is a disjointed mess, has had little model consistency and has been hanging on the edge of dissipation for the last 48 hours.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#408 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:34 am

Significant increase of Euro ensembles re-strengthening Isaac when it gets into the western Caribbean, compared to at least the last couple of runs.

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#409 Postby Emmett_Brown » Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:47 am

The GFS and FV3 show less shear in the NW Caribbean by Sunday evening as Isaac or his remains approach.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#410 Postby SconnieCane » Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:52 am

Gotta love the strongest member (Cat 3) right into Katrina's landfall point...not.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#411 Postby blp » Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:56 am

I have been looking at the shear forecast past few days for the GFS and FV3 and I keep seeing a good environment once it gets to the W. Caribbean yet they keep opening it up. Maybe I am reading it wrong.

Model performance has been poor in my opinion on this. Most had Issac remaining strong up to the islands and it has been badly sheered and barely hanging on so those forecasts bombed. The fact that the models are flip flopping between development and dissipation tells me they don't have a good handle. It comes down to will it survive the next 48-72hrs and if so I think watch out in the W. Caribbean.

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#412 Postby artist » Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:12 am

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#413 Postby GeneratorPower » Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:14 am

These systems which struggle for a long time typically never amount to much in terms of wind speed. Not expecting much in the Gulf either. This could change, so important to watch it.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#414 Postby tomatkins » Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:33 am

GeneratorPower wrote:These systems which struggle for a long time typically never amount to much in terms of wind speed. Not expecting much in the Gulf either. This could change, so important to watch it.

True - remember that nothing tropical storm Harvey last year that couldn't even hold together a surface circulation in the Western Caribbean and really didnt do anything even with favorable conditions in the gulf.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#415 Postby Steve » Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:38 am

stormchazer wrote:I’m not certain that there will even be an Isaac in the Western Caribbean. The system is a disjointed mess, has had little model consistency and has been hanging on the edge of dissipation for the last 48 hours.


As has been noted for several days, it's likely to come down to the MJO as to whether or not we still have Isaac or the Renanimated Isaac toward the end of next week. As noted several times on this thread, the MJO has been very favorable the last couple of weeks, but it has been forecasted to return to not so favorable conditions - briefly - before returning to favorable conditions in the Atlantic. It doesn't show up yet on the NCEP's JMA graph, but Weatherbell had the Western Hemisphere map on this morning on the daily video summary. A negative appears around Central America before switching back to positive. Bastardi said he didn't see the Atlantic returning to favorable this month and now there's liable to be another pulse. That times pretty close with my thoughts beginning this past weekend with the idea that if Isaac was going to survive or come back, the timing would likely need to be in sync with the return to the upward motion pattern.

Nice to see a professional met confirming that I've actually f'n learned something about the MJO after all these years. FWIW, I have no opinion one way or the other as to whether or not Isaac is going to still be there or regenerate.

NCEP MJO Forecast
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ncpe.shtml
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#416 Postby ronjon » Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:45 am

The fact that the ECM operational and ensembles are bullish on an eventual rebirth of Issac in the western caribbean means we can't take our eye off it. I see a few more models latching on to future development.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#417 Postby SoupBone » Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:50 am

blp wrote:I have been looking at the shear forecast past few days for the GFS and FV3 and I keep seeing a good environment once it gets to the W. Caribbean yet they keep opening it up. Maybe I am reading it wrong.

Model performance has been poor in my opinion on this. Most had Issac remaining strong up to the islands and it has been badly sheered and barely hanging on so those forecasts bombed. The fact that the models are flip flopping between development and dissipation tells me they don't have a good handle. It comes down to will it survive the next 48-72hrs and if so I think watch out in the W. Caribbean.

https://image.ibb.co/hzR0n9/Untitled.png


Not really true. The GFS and Euro had between a 1003-1007mb system heading to the islands for around 5 days (or more) now, and the HWRF had a nasty system heading right over it. The HWRF hasn't performed well (on intensity), but both the GFS and Euro have done exceptionally well until this point. A few runs of the GFS had something slightly more stout, but consistently over the course of its runs, it's been fairly good.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#418 Postby chaser1 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:22 am

tomatkins wrote:
GeneratorPower wrote:These systems which struggle for a long time typically never amount to much in terms of wind speed. Not expecting much in the Gulf either. This could change, so important to watch it.

True - remember that nothing tropical storm Harvey last year that couldn't even hold together a surface circulation in the Western Caribbean and really didnt do anything even with favorable conditions in the gulf.


:lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#419 Postby chaser1 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:45 am

Steve wrote:
stormchazer wrote:I’m not certain that there will even be an Isaac in the Western Caribbean. The system is a disjointed mess, has had little model consistency and has been hanging on the edge of dissipation for the last 48 hours.


As has been noted for several days, it's likely to come down to the MJO as to whether or not we still have Isaac or the Renanimated Isaac toward the end of next week. As noted several times on this thread, the MJO has been very favorable the last couple of weeks, but it has been forecasted to return to not so favorable conditions - briefly - before returning to favorable conditions in the Atlantic. It doesn't show up yet on the NCEP's JMA graph, but Weatherbell had the Western Hemisphere map on this morning on the daily video summary. A negative appears around Central America before switching back to positive. Bastardi said he didn't see the Atlantic returning to favorable this month and now there's liable to be another pulse. That times pretty close with my thoughts beginning this past weekend with the idea that if Isaac was going to survive or come back, the timing would likely need to be in sync with the return to the upward motion pattern.

Nice to see a professional met confirming that I've actually f'n learned something about the MJO after all these years. FWIW, I have no opinion one way or the other as to whether or not Isaac is going to still be there or regenerate.

NCEP MJO Forecast
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ncpe.shtml


Granted, we have more tropical systems within the Atlantic basin then at any point in memory. Having said that, I'd be curious as to whether MJO induced sinking air or simply this being a year with an over abundant amount of mid level dry air as a contributor to greater tropical cyclone decay and/or hampered ability to develop. Contrary to more typical years during the peak of season we suddenly have tropical systems weakening and struggling to develop.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#420 Postby SoupBone » Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:49 am

He does have a bit of dry air in front of him. Not too bad, but enough to disrupt him some. He's also moving at 20mph, outrunning any convection he's able to generate.

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

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